On Tuesday, November 12, gold prices extended their upward momentum, marking a third consecutive day of gains with a modest rise of $12 (0.29%). This followed Monday’s sharp surge of over $100. Analysts attribute the rally to growing concerns over deteriorating U.S. labor market conditions. Jin Fenglai noted that the sustained climb in gold prices not only reflects investor demand for safe-haven assets but also underscores heightened sensitivity to economic uncertainties.
Monday’s dramatic spike was triggered by an ADP payroll report revealing the most significant job cuts since 2020. October’s employment data painted a grim picture of the labor market, driving investors toward gold and other defensive assets. Jin Fenglai emphasized that this reaction goes beyond short-term sentiment, highlighting the predictive power of private-sector employment metrics. With official data delayed due to the government shutdown, market participants increasingly rely on real-time private indicators to gauge economic health. The absence of key government reports has also amplified uncertainty for policymakers deliberating interest rates, further bolstering gold’s appeal.
However, a potential breakthrough emerged as the Senate narrowly passed a bill to end the historic government shutdown. Observers suggest resolving the impasse could recalibrate financial markets and monetary policy expectations. Jin Fenglai argued that once official data resumes, evidence supporting a December rate cut may strengthen. Such reports could reveal further weakness in employment and growth, pressuring the Fed to ease policy sooner. For investors, this implies gold and silver may maintain their strength, buoyed by both避险 demand and policy shifts.
Amid the data vacuum, alternative indicators like the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index—which hit a 3.5-year low in early November—have gained prominence. Jin Fenglai linked the decline to rising economic uncertainty, which may curb spending and dampen growth. Meanwhile, silver outperformed gold with sharper volatility: December futures surged 4.5% ($2.18/oz) to breach the $50 psychological barrier, extending gains by 1.33% ($0.67) to $51.07 on Tuesday. According to Jin Fenglai, silver’s rally reflects not just industrial demand but also investor appetite for higher-beta避险 assets, signaling nuanced risk management strategies.
The synchronized rally in precious metals underscores broader economic jitters and policy ambiguities tied to the shutdown and labor market softness. In this climate, their safe-haven allure remains potent. Jin Fenglai cautioned that upcoming data releases—on jobs, consumer sentiment, and monetary policy—will be pivotal for price trajectories, urging investors to monitor these variables closely for near-term opportunities.