Title

Earning Preview: Soleno Therapeutics this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 34.12%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Soleno Therapeutics will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 25, 2026, Post Market; consensus points to a strong top line and profitability, with preliminary company commentary indicating net revenue of $90.00 million to $92.00 million and sustained momentum into the new fiscal year.

Market Forecast

The market’s baseline for the quarter centers on a dual track: consensus revenue of approximately $83.30 million contrasts with Soleno Therapeutics’s preliminary indication for net revenue of $90.00 million to $92.00 million, suggesting an above-consensus print. Forecast metrics imply adjusted EPS of $0.71, EBIT of $36.42 million, and revenue of $88.55 million, with year-over-year growth of 161.63% for adjusted EPS and 174.02% for EBIT; the revenue forecast’s year-over-year figure is recorded at 0%, with margin guidance not disclosed. The commercial engine remains anchored by the company’s product franchise, with sustained U.S. outperformance and early signals of international upside framing the near-term outlook while profitability and cash flow traction provide support for execution. The most promising segment is the flagship product Vykat XR, which generated $66.02 million in last-quarter revenue; year-over-year trajectory for the segment was not separately disclosed, though reported total revenue growth was recorded at 0% in the tool-based feed.

Last Quarter Review

Soleno Therapeutics reported last quarter revenue of $66.02 million, a gross profit margin of 98.27%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $26.01 million, a net profit margin of 39.40%, and adjusted EPS of $0.47, with adjusted EPS up 125.68% year over year. The quarter’s profitability inflection was notable, as net profit rose sharply quarter over quarter by 652.53%, supported by operating leverage and a high gross margin structure. Main business results were concentrated in Products revenue of $66.02 million; year-over-year growth in total revenue was recorded as 0%, indicating that disclosed segment-level growth was not separately broken out in the available dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Commercial Engine: Vykat XR trajectory and quarterly setup

The core commercial narrative in the upcoming report is anchored by Vykat XR, where analysts have highlighted sustained U.S. outperformance during the launch phase and continued momentum exiting the prior quarter. This quarter’s setup looks defined by a favorable demand backdrop, with preliminary company commentary indicating net revenue of $90.00 million to $92.00 million versus a consensus near $83.30 million, implying stronger-than-expected sell-through and prescription trends. Against last quarter’s $66.02 million, the forecasted revenue of $88.55 million from the finance tool suggests a sequential increase of approximately 34.12%, which, if realized, would further validate the ramp in commercial execution.

The margin structure from the prior quarter—gross margin at 98.27% and net profit margin at 39.40%—provides a reference point for expected profitability mix. While the company has not provided explicit gross or net margin guidance for the quarter, the operating leverage implied in the forecast EPS of $0.71 and EBIT of $36.42 million, alongside the above-consensus preliminary revenue commentary, supports expectations for favorable unit economics. Given the mix-driven margins and the observed increase in adjusted EPS year over year within the forecast set (up 161.63%), the quarterly cadence points to a stronger contribution from core product volumes without a need to rely on extraordinary items to sustain profitability.

Operationally, a stable supply chain and consistent commercial field activity underpin this outlook. The sell-side commentary characterizes U.S. performance as sustained, with attention turning to how prescriber breadth, refill rates, and patient retention shape the quarterly print. While precise metrics are not disclosed in the collected materials, the implied scale in revenue and EBIT in the forecasts, when juxtaposed with last quarter’s margin profile, indicates that the business is progressing toward durable operating leverage. This dynamic is central to investor expectations as the company transitions from proving demand to demonstrating consistent profitability over successive quarters.

Most Promising Growth Lever: Geographic expansion and channel optimization

The most visible growth lever highlighted by analysts is geographic expansion, particularly European upside, which has been frequently cited as supportive of the product’s longer-term trajectory. In this quarter’s context, investors will watch for commentary on geographic rollout milestones, regulatory progress where relevant, and the timing of initial contributions outside the U.S., all of which could establish the framework for revenue diversification over the next several quarters. The explicit references to European upside in analyst notes strengthen the case that international contributions may become a secondary engine as U.S. volumes mature.

Channel optimization also appears as a critical lever, with attention on distributor performance, inventory normalization, and alignment of patient access pathways to maintain steady script growth. The interaction of pricing discipline and patient affordability—often mediated through access programs and payer dynamics—can influence near-term uptake. While no specific coverage statistics are provided in the collected materials, the ongoing characterization of U.S. outperformance suggests that channel mechanics are functioning adequately to translate clinical demand into recognized revenue.

From a financial vantage point, this quarter’s forecast figures—revenue of $88.55 million, EBIT of $36.42 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.71—set a baseline for evaluating how geographic and channel levers contribute to the P&L. Higher EBIT growth year over year, recorded at 174.02% within the forecast set, indicates a potential acceleration in operating income that would be consistent with improved scale efficiency and mix. Any qualitative color the company provides on international ramp and channel throughput will be important for assessing whether the observed profitability expansion can be maintained while executing expansion initiatives.

Key Stock-price Drivers This Quarter: Profitability mix, operating leverage, and guidance cadence

This quarter’s stock-price drivers are closely tied to profitability mix and operating leverage, with last quarter’s 98.27% gross margin and 39.40% net margin creating expectations for robust unit economics even as volumes rise. The scale effect is observable in the forecast EPS increase of 161.63% year over year and forecast EBIT rising 174.02% year over year, which—if delivered—would support the narrative of sustained operating leverage through the commercial ramp. This is complemented by the company’s preliminary note that it achieved profitability and positive cash flow, with preliminary cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling approximately $500.00 million as of December 31, 2025, a liquidity position that provides resilience for execution and potential international expansion.

Guidance cadence will likely be a focal point, given the spread between consensus revenue of approximately $83.30 million and preliminary company commentary of $90.00 million to $92.00 million for the quarter. Confirmation of the upper end of the preliminary range, together with clarity on full-year 2026 trajectory drivers, could recalibrate market models and reinforce the company’s credibility with respect to forecasting. Investors may look for specificity on volume growth drivers, qualitative commentary on refill behavior, and any signals on margin sustainability as volumes scale beyond the early launch period.

The quarter-on-quarter step-up in net profit last quarter—up 652.53%—has already established a high bar, and the market will parse whether this momentum is sustainable in the context of normalized launch curves. The intersection of disciplined opex management, consistent revenue growth, and a sticky margin profile will be especially important to the stock’s near-term reaction. Any incremental disclosures around manufacturing capacity, commercial field coverage, or geographic launch sequencing could add color to how the company intends to support continued revenue growth without undue pressure on margins or working capital.

Analyst Opinions

The collected analyst views are unanimously bullish in the period reviewed, yielding a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 100% to 0%. TD Cowen’s Tyler Van Buren maintained a Buy rating and a $120.00 price target, citing confidence in the growth outlook and supportive strategic positioning. Guggenheim reiterated a Buy rating with a $106.00 target, emphasizing execution quality. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Kristen Kluska reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $123.00 target, noting the strength in sales growth and profitability. Stifel Nicolaus’s James Condulis maintained a Buy rating with a $115.00 target, and Robert W. Baird’s Brian Skorney reiterated Buy with a $121.00 target, highlighting sustainable commercial momentum.

Additional coverage strengthens this consensus tone. Goldman Sachs’s Paul Choi maintained a Buy rating with a $125.00 target, referencing the product’s market potential and growth opportunities. H.C. Wainwright’s Ram Selvaraju raised the Buy-rated target to $120.00, pointing to strong Vykat XR outperformance, a solid balance sheet, and global growth optionality. LifeSci Capital’s Kate Dellorusso maintained a Buy rating with a $100.00 target, citing sustained U.S. Vykat XR outperformance and European upside that bolster the growth case. These views consistently emphasize the durability of core product performance, the runway for international expansion, and the supportive cash position for continued investment in growth.

In interpreting these viewpoints for the current quarter, the majority argue that the setup is favorable for an above-consensus revenue outcome consistent with the company’s preliminary indication of $90.00 million to $92.00 million. The bullish stance is underpinned by three themes. First, the sustained U.S. outperformance signals that core demand dynamics remain robust; analysts expect these trends to manifest in recognizable revenue and operating income. Second, the visibility around European upside frames an emerging catalyst set that may start to contribute in guidance or commentary even if revenue contributions are initially modest. Third, strong liquidity—preliminary cash and equivalents of approximately $500.00 million—provides flexibility to invest in scale, which, combined with an already high gross margin profile, supports margin resilience.

From a valuation perspective, while specific valuation multiples are not included in the collected materials, the consensus tone implies that the stock’s narrative hinges on reiterating profitability and validating revenue scaling with solid margins. If the reported quarter confirms forecast EPS near $0.71 and EBIT near $36.42 million, the debate is likely to shift toward the sustainability of these levels in subsequent quarters and the pace of international ramp. The majority believe that consistency in revenue execution and margin outcomes, alongside clear guidance on geographic expansion, will be sufficient to maintain confidence, which in turn supports the prevailing Buy-rated targets across institutions.

Weighing these inputs together, the bullish majority view posits that the near-term reaction will hinge on whether management confirms the preliminary revenue range and provides detail that substantiates continued operating leverage. The company’s recent indication of profitability and positive cash flow, coupled with the high-margin structure reported last quarter, has set expectations that profitability will not be a transient feature but part of a strengthening financial profile. As a result, the majority outlook is that Soleno Therapeutics enters this reporting date with a credible path to meet or exceed consensus, with upside contingent on geographic progress and the cadence of guidance that clarifies the revenue and margin trajectory for 2026.