According to a UBS research report, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.,Ltd. may experience the most significant negative impact due to its relatively high exposure to Middle East business and lower proportion of mining operations. The firm has assigned a "Neutral" rating with a target price of HK$7.8. In contrast, leading shipbuilder China Cssc Holdings Limited is seen as a potential beneficiary, receiving a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 45.8.
UBS believes that if the Middle East conflict persists, the direct negative impact on China's industrial sector will be relatively limited, as most companies derive no more than 10% of their revenue from the region. While the immediate effects of the conflict are primarily financial—such as changes in revenue and increased transportation costs—the indirect impacts, which investors sometimes overlook, warrant close attention. These could alter the demand outlook for certain products or industries.
Rising oil and gas prices are expected to have minimal effect on the industrial firms covered by UBS. However, an associated increase in coal prices could raise electricity costs, slightly elevating production expenses and potentially shifting product mix toward greater demand for electrified products. Based on its analysis, UBS identifies shipbuilding as the only sub-sector within China's industrial space likely to see positive effects from the conflict, while mining and new energy equipment may experience indirect benefits. Conversely, China's construction machinery sector is expected to bear the most pronounced direct and indirect negative impacts. The influence on other industrial sub-sectors is viewed as relatively limited.