GTHT released a research report indicating that with the confirmation of the heavy-duty truck replacement policy continuing into 2026, domestic sales of heavy trucks are expected to reach 760,000 units in 2026, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year. The replacement policy in 2025 yielded significant results, leading to a high base for heavy truck sales. However, the bank observes that domestic logistics activity remains relatively healthy. Given the high replacement base from 2017-2021, it is anticipated that the decline in heavy truck sales will be limited. Looking at overall wholesale sales, the bank believes the 2026 volume could reach 1.16 million units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, with exports expected to maintain growth.

Key viewpoints from GTHT are as follows: In terms of total volume, domestic heavy truck sales in January reached 105,000 units, representing a 46% increase year-on-year and a 3% increase month-on-month. The bank attributes the year-on-year and month-on-month growth in January wholesale sales primarily to corporate initiatives. Major heavy truck enterprises achieved their annual targets well in 2025, consequently carrying over a portion of sales into 2026 to ensure a strong start to the year and boost confidence within the dealership network and industry chain partners. Furthermore, a strong wholesale performance in January helps dealerships stock inventory in advance, preparing for the traditional sales peak season following the Chinese New Year.

Focusing on natural gas heavy trucks, domestic sales in January reached 19,000 units, surging 98% year-on-year and 50% month-on-month. For natural gas semi-trailer tractors specifically, domestic sales in January were 18,000 units, up 97% year-on-year and 52% month-on-month. The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks in January was 18%. Based on the bank's calculations of the total cost of ownership over the heavy truck lifecycle, using natural gas is more economical for tractors with an average annual mileage exceeding 150,000 kilometers for most periods. The bank believes that, driven by the large-scale equipment renewal policy, natural gas heavy trucks, as lower-operating-cost equipment, are likely to see their penetration rate increase further.

Focusing on new energy heavy trucks, domestic sales in January were 20,000 units, a significant 102% increase year-on-year but a 24% decrease month-on-month. The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks in January was 19%. According to the bank's total cost of ownership calculations for heavy trucks, the TCO for new energy heavy trucks is optimal at an annual mileage between 45,000 and 100,000 kilometers. The bank contends that with technological maturation and cost reductions, new energy heavy trucks now possess inherent growth momentum. The new energy penetration rate is expected to continue growing in 2026, and market participants should closely monitor the implementation details of replacement policies specifically for new energy heavy trucks.

Risk warnings include economic development falling short of expectations and a substantial rise in raw material prices.