Title

Earning Preview: OGE Energy Corp revenue is expected to decrease by 16.60%, and institutional views are leaning bearish

Abstract

OGE Energy Corp is scheduled to report quarterly results on February 18, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview consolidates last quarter’s actuals and the current quarter’s market forecasts to frame likely outcomes for revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS, and evaluates institutional views heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Forecasts for the current quarter point to revenue of 626.18 million, down 16.60% year over year, EBIT of 151.45 million, down 2.21% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 0.32, down 34.91% year over year; gross profit margin and net profit margin are not included in current-quarter forecasts and are therefore omitted. The main business is expected to show seasonal normalization after a strong prior quarter, with top-line contraction and profit compression implied by the EPS decline. Electricity remains the core and most promising segment, having generated 1.05 billion last quarter with year-over-year growth of 8.25%, positioning it as the largest revenue driver and the principal lever for near-term earnings recovery if operating conditions stabilize.

Last Quarter Review

OGE Energy Corp delivered a solid prior quarter, with revenue of 1.05 billion (up 8.25% year over year), a gross profit margin of 49.11%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 231.00 million, a net profit margin of 22.13%, and adjusted EPS of 1.14 (up 4.59% year over year). A notable highlight was the rebound in profitability on a sequential basis, with net profit rising 115.16% quarter over quarter, reflecting stronger operating leverage and expense timing benefits. The main business (electricity) accounted for 1.05 billion in revenue and captured the entire revenue mix, supported by favorable year-over-year dynamics in the prior quarter’s billing and load metrics.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Electricity Service: Near-Term Revenue Trajectory and Margin Implications

The forecasted revenue decline of 16.60% year over year to 626.18 million suggests that the current quarter will reflect seasonal demand and a reset from the elevated prior quarter, which posted 1.05 billion. Seasonally narrower spreads between wholesale and retail billings, coupled with normalized customer consumption, typically translate to lower top-line in winter periods relative to peak quarters, and the forecasted EBIT decline of 2.21% year over year to 151.45 million indicates a manageable compression in operating profitability. The larger decline in adjusted EPS, at 34.91% year over year to 0.32, implies timing and mix effects running through the P&L beyond pure operating income trends, such as depreciation cadence, interest expense pathways, and tax rate normalization.

Given the last quarter’s gross margin of 49.11% and net margin of 22.13%, investors will be attuned to how margin sustainability translates into this quarter’s smaller revenue base. If cost discipline achieved in the prior period continues to hold, EBIT resilience relative to revenue contraction would remain plausible, as the modest projected EBIT contraction (-2.21% year over year) is significantly shallower than the top-line decline (-16.60%). Still, the EPS sensitivity indicates that below-the-line items could exert a larger drag on per-share results than operational indicators alone, which is consistent with utilities’ earnings structure in lower-demand quarters.

Operational stability in billing collections and customer mix will be central to how revenue softness flows through earnings. The prior quarter’s sequential net profit surge (+115.16%) provided a high baseline for profitability momentum, but the current forecasts suggest that momentum will reset, highlighting the importance of expense timing and measured O&M execution. With electricity accounting for the full revenue mix, commercial and residential consumption trends, alongside routine rate mechanisms, will define the quarter’s reported numbers; the absence of forecasted margin metrics in the dataset further directs attention to EBIT as the most direct indicator of operational health.

Electricity Segment: Largest Growth Potential Within a Normalizing Quarter

The electricity segment remains the central pillar of OGE Energy Corp, producing 1.05 billion of revenue last quarter and posting year-over-year growth of 8.25%. Even though the current quarter’s total revenue is expected to contract year over year, this segment’s prior quarter expansion underscores its capacity to sustain growth over multi-quarter horizons when operating conditions are favorable. The key to realizing that potential in the present quarter is not absolute top-line growth—given seasonal factors—but how efficiently the segment manages costs and recovers allowed returns through the regulatory framework embedded in its revenue model.

The forecasted EPS decline (-34.91% year over year to 0.32) suggests that per-share outcomes may be disproportionately affected by capital structure and timing considerations relative to segment-level operating performance. In that context, the electricity segment can still demonstrate “growth potential” by moderating operational volatility and delivering consistent EBIT, which is precisely what the relatively small projected EBIT decrease (-2.21%) implies. Translating segment reliability into shareholder returns will likely hinge on aligning depreciation schedules and interest expense with underlying operating cash generation to temper EPS sensitivity even when revenue swings with seasonality.

Over the medium term, the segment’s prior quarter trajectory—revenue up 8.25% year over year and strong margins—provides a reference point for how seasonally weak quarters can reset and how subsequent periods can reaccelerate. Investors should therefore view the electricity segment’s short-term outlook through the lens of operational consistency rather than headline growth. If this quarter ultimately lands near the forecast ranges, a return to higher seasonal demand would be the lever for re-expanding revenue and rebuilding per-share earnings power, assuming expense cadence remains disciplined and EBIT stays aligned with the revenue base.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter: Earnings Sensitivity and Estimate Ranges

The most impactful factor for the stock this quarter is the relationship between the forecast ranges—revenue at 626.18 million, EBIT at 151.45 million, EPS at 0.32—and how reported numbers anchor to those expectations. A modest deviation in EBIT can have an outsized effect on EPS if below-the-line items amplify or mitigate that variance, and the market will be quick to parse those reconciliations. In the last quarter, strong margins and a sequential net profit surge set a high base; this quarter’s narrative revolves around how much of that operational strength carries over into a seasonal trough period.

Another driver is the visibility of margin signals embedded in management’s commentary on expenses, particularly on O&M, depreciation trajectories, and interest. Since the forecasts do not include gross margin or net margin for the current quarter, investors may lean on EBIT as the primary anchor for operational health, making any delta from the 151.45 million estimate a focal point of the post-report reaction. If the company delivers EBIT near the estimate while EPS underperforms due to higher below-the-line costs, the stock reaction could depend on the clarity of management’s forward adjustments to those items.

Finally, the magnitude of the revenue decline versus the relatively smaller EBIT contraction establishes a crucial lens for interpreting resilience. If cost control keeps EBIT intact while revenue compresses due to seasonal demand and timing, sentiment may improve on the view that earnings power remains durable across cycles. Conversely, if EBIT deviates negatively from expectations by a wider margin than revenue does, the stock could be pressured as investors reassess the near-term earnings capacity into the next seasonal upswing. The scale and direction of these swings will likely determine near-term price action, particularly given the institutional positioning described below.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of collected institutional views in the current window tilts bearish. Wells Fargo has downgraded OGE Energy Corp to Underweight with a price target of $39, signaling caution on near-term earnings capacity and valuation alignment into the quarter. This stance reflects the sensitivity embedded in the current quarter’s estimates—revenue down 16.60% year over year, EBIT down 2.21% year over year, EPS down 34.91% year over year—where per-share outcomes can be more vulnerable than operating profitability suggests.

In aggregate, the ratio of bearish to bullish opinions in the collected timeframe is one-to-zero, meaning bearish views hold the majority. Notably, separate reports in the period indicate OGE Energy Corp carries an average Hold rating and a mean price target near the mid-$40s, but these do not contradict the tilt toward caution; rather, they provide context that the broader analyst community is balanced while the recent directional change leans defensive. The Underweight call emphasizes that a winter quarter with pronounced seasonality and heightened EPS sensitivity can challenge the setup even if the operating backbone appears resilient.

From an analytical perspective, the linchpin for reconciling bearish positioning with potential stabilization lies in EBIT delivery versus EPS. If EBIT lands close to the 151.45 million estimate while EPS trajectories are burdened by timing effects, investors could reassess how persistent that gap is into the next seasonal period. Should the company articulate a path to mitigating below-the-line pressures without eroding operating discipline, it would weaken the bearish case. Conversely, any material miss on EBIT or a lack of clarity on the drivers behind EPS compression would reinforce the cautious stance. In this sense, the quarter operates as a litmus test for how well OGE Energy Corp can buffer per-share outcomes against seasonal and timing volatility while maintaining its operational base, and the prevailing institutional view expects that test to be challenging in the immediate term.