According to recent reports, First Shanghai has reiterated its "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining (02899), setting a target price of HKD 43.29. The company’s long-term growth strategy remains robust, with continued expansions and capacity releases from its major global mines, such as the Kamoa Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Chukaru Peki Copper-Gold Mine in Serbia, and the Julong Copper Mine in Tibet. The ambitious production targets set for 2025 and beyond are steadily being achieved. The firm has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 53 billion, RMB 69.8 billion, and RMB 86.9 billion, respectively.

Key insights from First Shanghai include: Third-quarter financial performance was impressive, with a reported revenue of RMB 86.489 billion for Q3 2025, marking an 8.14% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 14.572 billion, up 57.14% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of the year, total revenue stood at RMB 254.2 billion, a 10.33% increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders totaled RMB 37.864 billion, a rise of 55.45%. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 25.45%, an increase of 5.23 percentage points year-on-year. The net operating cash flow was RMB 52.107 billion, reflecting a 44.31% increase, demonstrating strong self-financing capabilities.

Gold production exceeded expectations, offsetting short-term disruptions in copper mining. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s gold output reached 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, mainly driven by its operations in Ghana, Shanxi, Guizhou, and Serbia. The gross profit margins for gold concentrate and gold bullion were 55.8% and 72.8%, respectively, marking increases of 11.22 and 4.71 percentage points year-on-year. The group’s primary gold-producing mines collectively yielded 52 tons of gold, with Zijin Gold International contributing 32 tons and domestic mines plus the Bogala project accounting for 20 tons in the first half of the year. Copper production for the first three quarters reached 830,000 tons, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase, though it experienced a slight decline from the previous quarter due to flooding incidents at the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine in the DRC. The tailings discharge tunnel at the second phase of the Julong Copper Mine has been completed, allowing the mill to conduct clean water trials. By the end of 2025, conditions are set to be favorable for large-scale production, which is projected to add an additional 150,000 to 200,000 tons of copper, becoming a key source for future increases in copper output.

The company's global diversified mining strategy effectively mitigates risks. With a focus on copper, gold, lithium, and other critical minerals, Zijin Mining has demonstrated exceptional capabilities in global resource acquisitions and integration. Recent acquisitions of projects such as RGGold Mine and Raygorodok Gold Mine have not only directly increased its gold resource reserves but also expanded its global influence. Furthermore, the company is strategically entering the renewable metal sector, particularly lithium resources. While the current contribution from the lithium business is minimal, its progress is anticipated to become a focal point for future growth.