Crude oil prices continued their upward trajectory on Tuesday, with gains of approximately $0.50, as geopolitical tensions provided support. The strengthening Brent crude spreads highlighted sustained bullish sentiment. The primary rally occurred after midnight Beijing time, though market reaction to the U.S. Q3 GDP growth of 4.3%—a two-year high—was muted. U.S. President Trump expressed dissatisfaction, stating, "Anyone who opposes me will never get the Fed chair."

Venezuela’s export disruptions remain a key driver, with the U.S. increasing pressure on Caracas. Trump confirmed intentions to seize oil tankers to force President Maduro’s ouster, potentially selling the confiscated oil or adding it to strategic reserves. Meanwhile, Russia-U.S. talks on Ukraine stalled, with energy infrastructure attacks continuing.

API data showed builds in crude and refined product inventories. December typically sees lower oversupply pressure due to seasonal demand, but geopolitical risks have temporarily halted bearish momentum. A $3.50 risk premium appears reasonable; further upside depends on geopolitical developments. Resistance levels suggest a pullback is likely—caution advised against chasing rallies.

**Market Snapshot** - WTI rose 0.64% to $58.38/barrel; Brent gained 0.47% to $61.87. - USD index fell 0.37%; Dow Jones edged up 0.16%.

**Key Developments** 1. **Middle East Crude Diverges**: Oman/Dubai premiums rose while Murban weakened. Venezuelan export halts buoyed sentiment, with Dubai swaps up 19 cents. Traders reported strong spot demand at ~$62.15/barrel. Floating storage in Asia hit a 3-year high but may ease as sanctions disrupt flows. Norway’s November output exceeded forecasts; CPC pipeline exports may rise 18% this year.

2. **Geopolitical Moves**: - Trump may appoint a new Fed chair in January, impacting monetary policy. - U.S. seized Venezuelan-linked tankers, pursuing a third vessel. - Nigeria-U.S. surveillance flights signal tightened security cooperation. - Greenland’s strategic importance reiterated; post-Christmas insurance talks planned. - Navy to build AI-integrated warships; DOJ targets "ghost tankers" smuggling oil.

3. **Venezuela’s Export Woes**: - Loadings slowed after U.S. sanctions and cyberattacks disrupted PDVSA operations. - Coast Guard intercepted sanctioned vessels; Asian-bound shipments delayed. - Buyers seek contract renegotiations amid port logjams. Venezuela condemned U.S. actions as "piracy."