Spot gold maintained its strong momentum at the start of this week. On October 6th, spot gold surged rapidly, touching $3,920 per ounce with a daily gain of 0.35%, setting a new historical high. This milestone came less than 10 days after first breaking through the $3,800 level.
Goldman Sachs previously indicated that gold prices still have room for further upside, potentially exceeding the firm's expectations, driven by strong interest from private investors. Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven, noted that inflows into gold ETFs have been unexpectedly robust, surpassing previous model predictions.
Looking at gold's trajectory throughout 2025, the market has exhibited a wave-like upward trend. Prior to late April, gold experienced significant gains influenced by various factors including international situations and tariffs. Subsequently, the market entered a multi-month consolidation period. However, since August, gold has regained momentum with sustained market enthusiasm.
Based on COMEX gold futures contracts, this round of price volatility reflects investors' reassessment of gold assets. Fundamentally, gold price movements are closely related to interest-bearing assets denominated in US dollars. The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle directly impacts the opportunity cost of interest-bearing assets.
Historical data shows that during recession and stagflation periods when US unemployment rises, gold tends to outperform other assets. During economic downturns, overall capital returns decline, highlighting the value of gold and cash as safe-haven assets. In stagflation scenarios, physical gold's appeal is further enhanced.
Currently, the Fed's rate cut expectations reflect pressures facing the US economy, and the onset of a new recession or stagflation cycle cannot be ignored. Lower interest rate levels will undoubtedly support gold price increases. According to institutional forecasts, the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts in September.
Among the 10 rate-cutting cycles since 1980, gold prices rose in 7 instances, demonstrating gold's stability as a safe-haven asset and its ability to hedge against inflation. Additionally, the complex and volatile global geopolitical landscape further enhances gold's investment value, with various international incidents increasing investors' safe-haven demand for gold. During periods of instability, gold's value as a traditional safe-haven asset becomes increasingly prominent.
As central banks increasingly diversify their foreign exchange reserve allocations, gold's status continues to rise. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, gold's proportion in central bank reserves has steadily increased, surpassing the euro to become the world's second-largest reserve asset.
As of August 2025, China's central bank has increased gold holdings for 10 consecutive months, with gold reserves accounting for 7.64% of total foreign exchange reserves, reaching a historical high.
Goldman Sachs, which maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, stated that due to strong interest from private investors, gold prices still have room for further gains, potentially exceeding the firm's expectations. Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven, noted that the possibility of significant private investor participation in gold creates "substantial upside risk" to their forecasts. They originally projected gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 per ounce by the end of next year.
China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that the non-ferrous metals sector maintained high growth in the first half of the year, further establishing the industry's positive trend. Rising Fed rate cut expectations are driving global capital to accelerate gold purchases. Combined with uncertainties regarding Fed independence, this may trigger more safe-haven capital allocation to gold, driving gold price increases. The firm recommends focusing on leading gold stocks.
Related Concept Stocks:
ZIJIN MINING (02899): In the first half of 2025, ZIJIN MINING achieved operating revenue of 167.71 billion yuan, up 11.50% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent company reached 23.29 billion yuan, up over 50% year-on-year. For the first time in company history, interim net profit exceeded 20 billion yuan. During the same period, the company's mineral copper, gold, zinc (lead), and silver production were 570,000 tons, 41 tons, 200,000 tons, and 223 tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of 10%, 17%, -9%, and 6%. Benefiting from volume and price increases plus cost optimization, ZIJIN MINING's overall mineral product gross margin increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 60.23%.
ZHAOJIN MINING (01818): In the first half of 2025, ZHAOJIN MINING's revenue was approximately 6.97 billion yuan, up about 50.69% from the same period last year; net profit was approximately 1.78 billion yuan, up about 144.58% year-on-year; profit attributable to parent company shareholders was approximately 1.44 billion yuan, up about 160.44% year-on-year.
SD GOLD (01787): In the first half of 2025, SD GOLD achieved operating revenue of 56.77 billion yuan, up 24.01% year-on-year; net profit attributable to listed company shareholders reached 2.81 billion yuan, up 102.98% year-on-year. In the first half, the company coordinated efforts in stable growth, quality improvement, reform advancement, innovation strengthening, and risk prevention, with gold production and major economic indicators reaching historical highs. Mineral gold production was 24.71 tons, with self-produced gold sales of 23.60 tons.
LINGBAO GOLD (03330): In the first half of 2025, LINGBAO GOLD achieved revenue of 7.79 billion yuan, up 82.02% year-on-year. Profit attributable to shareholders was 664 million yuan, up 335.28% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the group produced approximately 10,821 kilograms of gold ingots, an increase of approximately 2,870 kilograms compared to the same period last year.