Circle is set to release its latest quarterly earnings before the U.S. market opens on February 25, 2026.

Consensus estimates project quarterly revenue of $739.4 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.25. The company’s core revenue driver remains reserve-related income, totaling about $711 million and accounting for 96.15% of total revenue. This stream is highly sensitive to asset allocation decisions and changes in market interest rates.

Source: Tiger Trade App

In the previous trading session, the stock closed at $61.17, down about 3%, and dipped to $60.58 in after-hours trading. Recent volatility has largely reflected shifts in overall crypto sentiment and evolving interest rate expectations.

IV defines that the expected move for CRCL expiring on Feb 27, 2026 (3 days) (w) is ±$6.26 (10.24%), with a price range of $54.89 - $67.41.

Source: OptionCharts

CRCL Options Strategy Analysis

I. Core Options Metrics: High Volatility Pricing and Two-Sided Positioning

Volatility Environment: Elevated but Not Extreme

• Implied Volatility (IV): 91.75%
  Exceptionally high, indicating substantial expected price movement. Option premiums are expensive.

• IV Percentile: 53.37%
  Current IV is higher than approximately 53% of historical readings — elevated but not extreme. This provides a relatively rational starting point for constructing spread strategies.

• IV/HV Ratio: 1.09
  Implied volatility is slightly above historical volatility, suggesting a modest volatility premium.

Market Sentiment: Bullish Bias with Embedded Hedging

• Call/Put Ratio: 1.43
  Higher call activity suggests overall bullish sentiment.

Large Block Trades (“Smart Money” Signals)

• Bullish signal:
  Large block sale of 5,500 contracts of the Feb 27, 2026 $41 Put, indicating confidence that shares will not fall to that level in the short term (bullish income strategy).

• Bearish signal:
  Large block sale of 4,610 contracts of the Feb 27, 2026 $64 Call, suggesting significant overhead supply and consensus resistance near $64.

Technical Analysis: Key Support Under Pressure

• Current Price: $61.17 (Feb 23, 2026 close)

• Open Interest Clusters:

  • Call concentration (resistance): $62 and $67

  • Put concentration (support): $55 and $63

Conclusion

CRCL’s options market reflects:

• High implied volatility pricing

• Mid-range historical IV percentile

• A cautiously bullish but fragile sentiment backdrop

With shares trading near key support, bulls and bears are engaged in an intense battle. This environment is well suited for defined-risk spread strategies that express directional views with controlled exposure.

II. Selected Bullish Strategy: Bull Call Spread

Among common bullish strategies, the Bull Call Spread (buy lower-strike call + sell higher-strike call) stands out.

It aligns well with the current high-IV environment by:

• Reducing upfront premium costs

• Locking in defined risk and reward

• Expressing a moderately bullish outlook

Strategy Construction: CRCL Bull Call Spread (62/65)

Core View: CRCL may rebound modestly over the next two weeks, but faces resistance near $65.

Trade Structure

• Buy 1 × CRCL Mar 6, 2026 $62 Call

• Sell 1 × CRCL Mar 6, 2026 $65 Call

$CRCL Vertical 260306 62.0C/65.0C$

Source: Tiger Trade App

Strike Selection Logic

• Buy $62 Call:
  Slightly above current price, with a Delta of 0.505 — responsive yet reasonably priced.

• Sell $65 Call:
  Aligns with recent large block selling and psychological resistance, leaving ~6.3% upside room while offsetting cost.

Capital & P/L Details (Mid-Price Estimates)

• Net debit per share: $1.175
  ($3.775 paid – $2.60 received)

• Total cost per spread: $117.50

• Breakeven: $63.175

• Maximum Profit: $182.50 (if stock ≥ $65)

• Maximum Loss: $117.50 (if stock ≤ $62)

• Risk/Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 1.55

Suitable For

Investors expecting a move above $63.175 and a test of $65.

Primary Risk:
Stock fails to rise. If shares surge well above $65, gains are capped.

III. Selected Bearish Strategy: Bear Put Spread

Among bearish approaches, the Bear Put Spread (buy higher-strike put + sell lower-strike put) is preferable.

It lowers the cost of outright puts in a high-IV environment while capturing gains from a moderate decline with defined risk.

Strategy Construction: CRCL Bear Put Spread (62/57)

Core View: CRCL may break below the key $60 support and extend lower, with potential stabilization near $57.

Trade Structure

• Buy 1 × CRCL Mar 6, 2026 $62 Put

• Sell 1 × CRCL Mar 6, 2026 $57 Put

$CRCL Vertical 260306 57.0P/62.0P$

Source: Tiger Trade App

Strike Selection Logic

• Buy $62 Put:
  Slightly above current price and near the $59.9 support, providing downside exposure quickly.

• Sell $57 Put:
  Below key support, generating premium income and defining the downside boundary.

Capital & P/L Details (Mid-Price Estimates)

• Net debit per share: $2.195
  ($4.80 paid – $2.605 received)

• Total cost per spread: $219.50

• Breakeven: $59.805

• Maximum Profit: $280.50 (if stock ≤ $57)

• Maximum Loss: $219.50 (if stock ≥ $62)

• Risk/Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 1.28

Suitable For

Investors expecting a break below $59.80 support.

Primary Risk:
Stock rebounds instead of declining.

IV. Strategy Summary

For CRCL, currently at the center of market attention, elevated options volatility presents both risks and structured opportunities.

For Bullish Investors

The 62/65 Bull Call Spread offers controlled-cost upside participation, particularly appealing for traders concerned about post-earnings IV crush.

For Bearish Investors

The 62/57 Bear Put Spread provides defined-risk exposure to a breakdown below support, avoiding the higher risk of shorting shares outright or purchasing naked puts.

Regardless of strategy, strict risk management is essential. Closely monitor the battle between $59.9 support and $65 resistance, as well as broader crypto market sentiment shifts.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk. Investors should carefully evaluate their risk tolerance before entering any position.