Following a significant pullback, the gold market continues to consolidate. On March 24, after a rare sharp decline in the previous trading session, spot gold extended its adjustment during the day, briefly approaching the key level of $4,300 per ounce before gradually narrowing losses and briefly turning positive, indicating intensified battles between bulls and bears.
As of the latest update, spot gold was quoted at $4,403.82 per ounce, down 0.08% for the day, after hitting a low of $4,305.32 and a high of $4,417.11, reflecting a notable expansion in overall volatility.
Futures markets mirrored this pattern, initially falling before rising. COMEX gold futures edged up 0.19% to $4,415.5 per ounce, after dipping to a low of $4,306.3 and reaching a high of $4,450.5, moving in sync with the spot market.
Driven by the sharp correction in international gold prices, several domestic brands have adjusted their pure gold jewelry prices back to levels seen at the beginning of the year. For instance, Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price fell to 1,346 yuan per gram, down 11 yuan from 1,357 yuan on January 1, while Chow Sang Sang's price dropped to 1,350 yuan per gram, a decrease of 10 yuan from 1,360 yuan on January 2.
Analysts note that the recent gold price adjustment results from a combination of macroeconomic conditions, trading sentiment, and structural factors. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has strengthened the U.S. dollar and real Treasury yields, significantly increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and triggering capital outflows. On the trading front, substantial profits accumulated at historical highs led to technical selling and long liquidation after key support levels were broken, creating a cascade effect that amplified short-term declines.
Looking ahead, short-term pressure on gold prices is expected to persist, with volatility likely to intensify amid high interest rate conditions. Medium-term trends will depend on the interplay between U.S. inflation data and geopolitical developments. In the long run, core supportive factors such as global de-dollarization trends, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties remain intact, suggesting the current adjustment can be viewed as normal volatility within a long-term allocation strategy.
Investors are advised to closely monitor developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Easing tensions and improved liquidity could lead to a rebound in precious metals, while stalled talks and escalating conflicts may drive up oil prices, further impacting gold and silver. The long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains largely unchanged, and investors are encouraged to adopt a wait-and-see approach, maintaining a long-term perspective for potential entry opportunities.
Recent weakness in gold prices is attributed to excessive prior gains, which led to liquidity shocks as risk appetite waned, and expectations of monetary tightening driving real interest rates higher, further suppressing gold. In the short term, gold may face阶段性 pressure due to the Iran situation, but a resurgence in long-term inflation expectations could restore favorable conditions. The medium- to long-term upward trajectory remains solid, presenting配置 opportunities during periods of震荡下跌.
Gold's role as a safe-haven asset remains unchallenged. Its long-term performance ultimately hinges on two main themes: the erosion of U.S. dollar credibility and global liquidity expansion. Investors are advised to focus on these core drivers and filter out short-term noise to fully capture gold's enduring value in asset allocation.