**[Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy] Fifteenth Five-Year Plan Capacity Optimization and Technology Innovation Synergy, AI Applications Poised for Growth — Shenwan Hongyuan Key Assumptions Table Adjustment and Exchange Summary (September 2025)**

**Investment Highlights:**

On September 28, 2025, Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute held a systematic collaborative monthly outlook exchange meeting. This meeting focused on three key themes: 1) Fifteenth Five-Year Plan outlook for various industries; 2) Latest technology developments feedback; 3) Third quarter report outlook for various industries. The main content is as follows:

**I. Fifteenth Five-Year Plan Outlook: Institutional Breakthrough Leading Technology Innovation, Multi-Industry Collaborative Capacity Optimization**

Macro analysts indicated that the primary direction of industrial structure adjustment during the "Fifteenth Five-Year" period is transformation and upgrading. The "Fifteenth Five-Year" plan is expected to continue the direction of the "Fourteenth Five-Year" in supporting technological innovation. Meanwhile, another core aspect of industrial structure adjustment is promoting supply-demand matching, with "anti-involution" policies likely to be further implemented during the "Fifteenth Five-Year" period.

Real estate analysts expressed that real estate volumes are expected to continue bottoming out, with stabilization policies likely to be further introduced. Under the high-quality development of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan, quality housing will open new development tracks of "new products, new pricing, new models," promoting improvement in core city real estate markets with lower quality housing penetration rates and entering bottom inflection points first.

Home appliance analysts stated that during the Fifteenth Five-Year period, policy focus in the home appliance industry centers on three aspects: intelligence, green technology, and globalization, which are also important directions for most Chinese manufacturing industries.

Construction analysts indicated that the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan focuses on two aspects for the construction industry: overseas expansion and intelligent construction.

Non-ferrous metals analysts expressed that during the Fifteenth Five-Year period, the importance of strategic resources will continue to rise, benefiting the sustained increase in non-ferrous metal prices.

Building materials analysts stated that cement, glass, and other industries will strictly control capacity in the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan, with building materials companies focusing more on profit recovery rather than just revenue recovery.

Chemical industry analysts indicated that the industry's major direction during the Fifteenth Five-Year period is to control increments and reduce inventory, with outdated capacity over 20 years continuing to be replaced. The overall industry cycle is bottoming out and recovering, maintaining optimism toward chemical export chains.

New energy analysts expressed that at the UN Climate Change Summit, China stated it will strive to achieve a total installed capacity of 3.6 billion kilowatts for wind and solar power generation by 2035, maintaining an annual growth of 200 million kilowatt-hours. During the Fifteenth Five-Year period, supply and demand in the new energy sector will resonate positively.

Coal analysts stated that during the Fifteenth Five-Year period, coal resource scarcity will significantly increase, while capacity concentration will further improve. Coal price volatility will weaken, and coal industry performance will continue to warm up following price increases.

Computer analysts expressed that during the Fifteenth Five-Year stage, national policy subsidies for the technology industry (AI computing power, AI applications, etc.) may gradually emerge, benefiting continued technology industry breakthroughs in core technologies.

Media analysts indicated that during the Fifteenth Five-Year period, regulations on cultural exports may gradually relax, benefiting supply-side recovery in the industry.

**II. Core Technology Breakthroughs in Computing Power Continue Bull Market, AI Applications to Explode in 2026**

Computer analysts stated that with breakthroughs in Chinese wafer manufacturing technology and optimization of AI inference training across industries, computing power costs continue to decline. AI applications will enter an explosive phase in 2026, with overall optimism toward companies with AI revenue accounting for over 10%.

Electronics analysts expressed that although short-term subsidy reduction leads to significant performance pressure in consumer electronics, long-term domestic policy support for electronics industry domestic substitution (semiconductors, etc.) is still increasing.

Media analysts indicated that since late 2024, China has been replicating the process of North American internet cloud computing giants since late 2022: capex investment - cloud computing and proprietary application recommendations/advertising acceleration, opex decline - capex reinvestment positive cycle. They are optimistic about global internet cloud computing AI + self-developed chips value revaluation, with industry opportunities focusing on pan-entertainment direction, self-pleasing consumption global resonance, good industry structure, and most companies having overseas expansion foundations. Cloud computing and gaming remain main themes.

Communications analysts stated that from industry R&D perspective, 6G and satellite internet are core, while domestic computing power opportunities concentrate in the IDC industry chain.

Retail analysts expressed that from an e-commerce dimension, internet companies are still in a stock game stage. The end of national subsidies will have negative high-base effects on e-commerce performance, but this negative impact is expected to be offset by AI product revenue. The impact of China-US tariffs on internet platform companies is relatively low.

**III. Third Quarter Performance Outlook: Subsidy Reduction Causes Performance Pressure in Related Industries (Light Industry, Consumer Electronics, Home Appliances, etc.) Under High Base, Traditional Cyclical Industries May See Turnaround Under Anti-Involution**

Education analysts indicated that private higher education companies' third quarter performance welcomes turnaround from difficulties.

Non-ferrous metals analysts expressed that with sustained increases in domestic metal prices, third quarter non-ferrous performance is expected to continue improving.

Pharmaceutical analysts stated that Trump's tariff policy has considerable room, and the impact on domestic pharmaceutical companies may not reach some investors' overly pessimistic expectations.

Agriculture analysts expressed bearishness on pig prices until Q1 2026, with weak third quarter growth rates.

Light industry analysts stated that from overseas demand perspective, Trump's latest tariffs have significant industry impact. Meanwhile, domestic demand faces fundamental pressure from subsidy reduction, with third quarter performance continuing to bottom out.

Electronics analysts indicated that after subsidy reduction, consumer electronics sector growth may decline marginally.

Chemical analysts expressed that the "Petrochemical Industry Stable Growth Work Plan" targets achieving over 5% average annual growth in petrochemical industry added value from 2025-2026, with economic benefits stabilizing and recovering. Long-term upward trends remain unchanged, with positive third quarter performance trends.

Food and beverage analysts stated that second half mass consumer goods fundamental demand is relatively weak, but institutional holdings are light with low market expectations.

Defense analysts expressed that third quarter industry overall revenue and performance are positive, with continued focus on Fifteenth Five-Year progress providing sustained catalysts for defense industry, focusing on elastic/thematic varieties.

**Risk Warnings:** Policy implementation below expectations, global economic downturn exceeding expectations, geopolitical risks, etc.

**3. Risk Warnings** Policy implementation below expectations, global economic downturn exceeding expectations, geopolitical risks, etc.

*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.*