On March 26, analysis from the previous day noted that after gold found a bottom and rebounded on Monday, its upward momentum was capped. This was primarily due to Iran's denial of any direct negotiations with the United States, which supported an oil price rebound and subsequently drove the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields higher. Technically, after stabilizing from its decline, gold showed short-term corrective rebound potential. For trading, it was suggested to watch for a break above the resistance near $4,510, with further resistance at $4,600, while support levels were seen at $4,400 and then $4,350.
In subsequent trading, gold attempted an upward move during the Asian session on Wednesday, successfully breaking above the 5-day moving average and the short-term resistance near $4,510. It reached a high of $4,602 before encountering resistance at the $4,600 psychological level. The metal then retreated, stabilizing near $4,487 by the close, and faced resistance again on a rebound to $4,542. On Thursday, gold stabilized around $4,489 after opening lower, rebounded to $4,544 where it met resistance, and then declined further. After breaking below the support near $4,488, selling accelerated, pushing prices to a low of $4,413 before stabilizing. Overall, gold's short-term rebound on Wednesday was clearly constrained, and after meeting resistance, it retreated again, maintaining a range-bound pattern largely between the $4,600 resistance and $4,400 support levels as anticipated.
Analysis indicates that earlier escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, which drove sustained oil price gains and heightened inflation concerns, dampened expectations for interest rate cuts. This supported the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, directly pressuring gold prices to lows not seen since December of the previous year. After the former U.S. president signaled the strongest ceasefire intent to date, gold staged a rebound from Monday's lows, but the rally remained subdued through Wednesday. This persistent pressure is largely attributed to Iran's firm stance, refusing direct talks with the U.S. and opting instead for indirect communication through mediators. This uncertainty has reignited oil price gains, renewing downward pressure on gold. Looking ahead, market focus remains on whether substantive de-escalation occurs in the Middle East, which will directly influence gold's near-term direction.
On the daily chart, gold's rebound from Monday's lows met resistance on Wednesday, with prices currently stabilizing around $4,400. Key support is seen at the $4,400 level, where intraday stability was observed, followed by the $4,300 mark, which previously supported a rebound on Tuesday. Resistance is noted near $4,480, a breach of which intensified selling pressure, then at Thursday's high of $4,544, which also capped Wednesday's rebound, and finally at the $4,600 level, where Wednesday's advance reversed. Technical indicators show the 5-day moving average and MACD's bearish convergence slowing, while the KDJ's bullish convergence eases and the RSI turns bearish again. This suggests short-term corrective rebound potential for gold, but upward resistance remains significant.
Intraday outlook: Iran's refusal to engage in direct talks with the U.S. has fueled an oil price recovery, boosting the dollar and Treasury yields and causing gold to retreat after an earlier advance, leaving it under short-term pressure. Trading strategy recommends a range-bound approach, with support monitored at $4,400 and $4,300, and resistance watched at $4,480 and $4,544, followed by $4,600.