Copper stocks saw broad gains in early trading. At the time of writing, CHINF MINING (01258) rose 4.89% to HK$14.37, JIANGXI COPPER (00358) climbed 3.44% to HK$31.3, CMOC (03993) advanced 3.31% to HK$16.56, and MMG (01208) increased 2.36% to HK$6.94.
The rally followed reports that Chen Xuesen, Vice Chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated at an industry conference in Shanghai that negative processing fees severely harm the interests of the global copper smelting industry, including China. Negative processing fees imply smelters are effectively paying to process copper concentrate—an unusual situation challenging the long-standing pricing benchmark in the global copper industry. This marks the first public stance by Chinese authorities on the disorder in processing fee markets.
Morgan Stanley released a report noting that the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced plans to strictly limit new copper smelting capacity and shut down approximately 2 million tons of illegally constructed smelting capacity. If implemented, the policy would benefit copper prices and major producers. The bank expects JIANGXI COPPER and CMOC shares to rise within the next 15 days, with a 70%–80% probability, setting target prices at HK$37.3 and HK$18.6, respectively, and maintaining an "Overweight" rating for both.