Ahead of a major policy announcement from former President Trump, suspicious trading activity occurred, suggesting possible insider information. Just after 7 a.m. Eastern Time, Trump posted on Truth Social that he had ordered a five-day halt to all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. He justified the move by citing "productive dialogue aimed at a complete and comprehensive resolution of hostilities" between the U.S. and Iran. Crude oil futures plunged immediately, falling more than 10% at their lowest point.
Crucially, "insider" trading was detected before the post was made public. Approximately 6,200 Brent crude and W&T Offshore (WTI) futures contracts changed hands 15 minutes prior to the announcement. Rough estimates indicate these trades had a notional value of about $580 million, dwarfing any other trading volume at market close by four to six times. Although oil prices rebounded after Iran denied the reports—with the Iranian parliament speaker calling it "fake news" meant to manipulate financial and oil markets and create conditions for an assassination—the damage was done. If asked whether he won or lost, or if his reversal was embarrassing, Trump would likely only say he profited.
This is not the first time such a maneuver has occurred; the pattern is now familiar. On May 23, 2025, Trump posted on social media proposing a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, triggering sharp volatility in global financial markets and a simultaneous slump in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar. However, the situation reversed on the evening of May 25, when Trump announced he had agreed, at the EU chairman's request, to delay the tariff implementation until July 9. U.S. markets then rallied. Similarly, on October 10, 2025, Trump stated that the U.S. planned to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, alongside export controls on critical software. But on October 12, he posted, "Don’t worry about China, everything will be fine," signaling a de-escalation. U.S. stock index futures opened higher thereafter.
These repeated instances have popularized the term "TACO" to describe the Trump administration's pattern of first issuing aggressive threats and then compromising. It has been named a 2025 buzzword in fund management circles. The core logic involves betting on short-term panic-driven market declines following policy threats, followed by rebounds when compromises are announced, enabling arbitrage opportunities.
Whether negotiations are actually happening remains unclear, but military actions have continued. Nevertheless, financial markets experienced brief excitement: U.S. stocks rebounded, crude oil plummeted, and gold and silver recovered. After a volatile session, A-shares also staged a rebound. However, while markets rose today, trading volume shrank significantly, and gains recovered less than half of the prior losses. Sustained market confidence may only return when the former president stops posting unpredictably and tensions in the Middle East normalize.
Some positive developments have emerged recently. For instance, a large oil tanker carrying millions of barrels of Iraqi crude successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Israel also hinted that Trump plans to end the war with Iran by April 9. Still, these have not fully eased market concerns over a potential strait blockade. Reports indicate the U.S. military has deployed additional ground troops to the Middle East, including approximately 2,000 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard amphibious warships expected to arrive by March 27, and another 2,200 from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit departing from San Diego. Their target may be Iran’s key oil export hub, Kharg Island.
Located in the northwestern Persian Gulf about 25 kilometers from the Iranian coast, Kharg Island is roughly 6 kilometers long and 3 kilometers wide. Its facilities are highly exposed, with dozens of oil storage tanks concentrated in the south and long piers extending into deep water where supertankers dock. Subsea pipelines connect the terminal to Iran’s major oil fields, making it the country’s largest crude export base—handling 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Its loss would be a severe blow to Iran. Tehran has previously warned that if the U.S. or Israel attacks any of its islands in the Persian Gulf, Iran would "abandon all restraint," making the conflict’s trajectory unpredictable.
As the weekend approaches, markets may grow anxious about the potential for ground troop deployment—a black swan event. Caution is advised for the coming days. However, as previously analyzed, the impact on A-shares resembles the shock seen last April, with similar price action. At current levels, further declines could actually improve short-term safety margins. Whether the market can recover and reach new highs, as it did last year, will depend on external developments.
Sector-wise, many leading companies have posted strong annual reports. The upcoming period will see a high concentration of Q1 earnings and annual report releases, presenting both opportunities and risks. Sectors with more certain earnings prospects may show relative strength, but there is also the danger of results falling short of expectations. Historically, a safer approach has been to wait for official earnings announcements before making selections.