Title

Earning Preview: Cactus Inc. this quarter’s revenue is expected to decrease by 9.52%, and institutional views are cautious

Abstract

Cactus Inc. will report fourth-quarter results on February 25, 2026, Post Market, with consensus pointing to lower year-over-year revenue and earnings; investors will watch margin dynamics, segment mix, and forward guidance to gauge the trajectory into 2026.

Market Forecast

For the quarter to be reported, market forecasts compiled from the company’s prior disclosures point to revenue of USD 250.77 million, a decrease of 9.52% year over year, EBIT of USD 57.54 million, a decrease of 21.22% year over year, and adjusted EPS of approximately USD 0.58, reflecting a 17.97% year-over-year decline. Guidance for gross profit margin and net margin is not explicitly provided in the current-quarter forecast, which makes the operating leverage and price/cost commentary on the call particularly important to interpret margin direction. The main business remains anchored by product sales, where recent quarterly performance demonstrated the largest revenue contribution and a clear sensitivity to order intake and backlog conversion heading into the print. The most promising revenue engine by scale is the Products segment, supported by USD 206.82 million in last quarter revenue; while segment-level year-over-year metrics were not disclosed, the segment’s near-term outlook will be inferred from overall demand trends and the company-wide revenue contraction of 9.97% in the prior quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Cactus Inc. delivered last quarter revenue of USD 263.95 million (down 9.97% year over year), a gross profit margin of 36.80%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 41.62 million with quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 321%, a net profit margin of 15.77%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.67 (down 15.19% year over year). A key highlight was the outperformance versus expectations: revenue exceeded estimates by USD 5.11 million and EPS beat by USD 0.09, while EBIT was USD 68.65 million, evidencing a more resilient profitability profile than anticipated despite the top-line decline. In the last quarter’s revenue composition, Products contributed USD 206.82 million (approximately 78.36% of total), Field Services and Other contributed USD 39.77 million (about 15.07%), and Rental contributed USD 17.36 million (about 6.58%); while segment-level year-over-year changes were not disclosed, the mix underscores the centrality of product volumes in shaping overall results.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Products segment: volume cadence, pricing, and margin sensitivity

The Products segment is the financial anchor of Cactus Inc., and it is the most consequential for this quarter’s print given its scale and margin contribution. With the forecast indicating revenue down 9.52% year over year and EBIT down 21.22% year over year, investors should expect the company to frame its product order activity and backlog conversion as central determinants of quarterly performance. The margin sensitivity in this segment is typically driven by price realization relative to input costs, production efficiency, and the mix of higher-value assemblies versus lower-complexity components; the last quarter’s 36.80% gross margin and 15.77% net margin set a reference point for evaluating any quarter-to-quarter changes. A meaningful data point will be whether the company can preserve pricing while navigating slower demand: any commentary around pricing discipline, discounting, or competitive bids will help interpret the direction of gross margins absent formal guidance. In practice, even modest shifts in product volumes can amplify EBIT changes due to fixed-cost absorption effects; the 21.22% year-over-year decline in estimated EBIT suggests operating leverage may be negative this quarter, making throughput and mix the dominant levers for stabilizing profitability. Management’s narrative on order intake, shipping timelines, and lead times will be closely parsed to gauge whether the present contraction is transient and whether backlog coverage provides a cushion for the early months of 2026.

Field Services and Other: recurring activity tied to installed base

Field Services and Other delivered USD 39.77 million last quarter, a notably stable slice of the revenue pie that is often correlated with the company’s installed base and maintenance cycles. As the Products business sets the pace for new equipment placed, the services activity typically follows, providing incremental support to utilization, spare parts, and maintenance revenue; this dynamic is helpful for smoothing quarterly fluctuations, particularly when primary product volumes soften. The near-term focus is on activity intensity around recently shipped equipment and whether customer service schedules remain steady or align with tighter operating budgets; stability here can provide an offset to the headline decline in revenue and EBIT estimates. While segment-specific year-over-year growth metrics are not disclosed, investors can still triangulate traction by monitoring commentary on service attachment rates and the proportion of Field Services within total revenue. Any evidence of improving service mix or efficiency—such as effective labor allocation, better service routing, or incremental capture of ancillary work—would support margin resilience even as the broader top line faces pressure this quarter.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: headline prints, margin signals, and forward guidance

Shares will be most sensitive to how actual revenue, EBIT, and adjusted EPS compare to forecasts—particularly if the company can limit the depth of contraction relative to the projected 9.52% year-over-year drop in revenue and 17.97% decline in EPS. Margin signals will carry unusual weight in the absence of formal gross or net margin guidance; investors will extrapolate from the last quarter’s 36.80% gross margin and 15.77% net margin to assess whether cost control, pricing, and mix can stabilize profitability. Commentary on backlog size, order intake, and the cadence of deliveries will help frame the next two quarters and give the market confidence in the trajectory for 2026; clarity on scheduling and backlog coverage can mitigate valuation anxiety tied to near-term declines. Cash generation and capital deployment updates—such as priorities around reinvestment, maintenance expenditure, or shareholder returns—will also influence sentiment, as they provide signals on management’s confidence and the balance between growth, profitability, and financial flexibility. Finally, any qualitative insights into operational execution—manufacturing throughput, lead-time improvements, or quality metrics—can shape investor expectations on the durability of margin performance into the first half of 2026, which in turn will influence the stock’s reaction post-print.

Analyst Opinions

Across the previews and published expectations within the reviewed period, the majority stance toward Cactus Inc.’s upcoming quarter is cautious rather than outright bullish. The negative year-over-year forecast deltas—revenue down 9.52%, EBIT down 21.22%, and EPS down 17.97%—tip the balance of near-term views toward a wait-and-see posture, with an emphasis on whether management can demonstrate price discipline and cost containment in the face of softer demand. In this context, the prevailing narrative focuses on margin preservation and operational execution: analysts expect the company to lean on backlog conversion, product mix management, and service activity tied to the installed base to help offset headline declines. The constructive angle within this cautious majority is that last quarter’s performance showed resilience against estimates, with revenue and EPS beats alongside a 36.80% gross margin and 15.77% net margin, which suggests that Cactus Inc. has levers to defend profitability even as volumes trend lower. The critical validation point for the cautious camp will be whether the February 25, 2026, Post Market print confirms narrower-than-anticipated declines or shows that operating leverage remains unfavorable; guidance color on pricing, backlog, and service attachment rates will likely set the tone for the stock’s path into the first half of 2026.