Abstract

Pan American Silver will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18, 2026 Post Market, and this preview synthesizes company projections, recent quarterly performance, and sell-side views around revenue, margins, net income, and adjusted EPS to frame the near-term earnings setup.

Market Forecast

Based on Pan American Silver’s latest projections, fourth-quarter revenue is estimated at 1.07 billion with an expected year-over-year increase of 33.78%, and adjusted EPS is projected at 0.83 with an expected year-over-year increase of 132.15%; EBIT is projected at 580.12 million with an expected year-over-year increase of 192.08%. Forecast data for gross profit margin and net profit margin is not available, so those are omitted.

Refined silver and gold remain the core business, supported by last quarter’s gross margin of 49.91% and strong price leverage, though attributable gold volumes declined year over year. Silver operations are the clearest growth lever in the near term; revenue tied to silver and gold totaled 697.20 million last quarter, and overall revenue expanded 42.10% year over year, underscoring sensitivity to silver price trends.

Last Quarter Review

Pan American Silver reported revenue of 854.60 million, gross profit margin of 49.91%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 169.00 million, net profit margin of 19.73%, and adjusted EPS of 0.48; revenue rose 42.10% year over year and adjusted EPS increased 50.00% year over year.

A key highlight was the modest shortfall versus prior estimates, with revenue and EPS printing slightly below consensus. Within the main business, refined silver and gold delivered 697.20 million in revenue; attributable gold production declined year over year to 197.80 thousand ounces from 224.00 thousand ounces on January 21, 2026, indicating the quarter’s mix was increasingly driven by silver price support and operational normalization in silver assets.

Current Quarter Outlook

Refined Silver and Gold Operations

The refined silver and gold operations form the backbone of Pan American Silver’s quarterly earnings power. The last quarter’s gross margin of 49.91% and net profit margin of 19.73% provide a constructive base for profitability if realized prices hold above recent lows. The period from late January through early February 2026 was marked by pronounced precious-metals price volatility, including sharp sell-offs and subsequent rebounds on January 30, 2026 and February 3, 2026, and another downdraft noted February 5, 2026; such swings can translate directly into revenue variability given the business’s revenue-weighted exposure to silver and gold. Against that backdrop, the company’s projection for adjusted EPS of 0.83 this quarter, alongside revenue of 1.07 billion and EBIT of 580.12 million, suggests improved operational throughput and cost discipline relative to the year-ago period.

Production dynamics provide additional context to near-term earnings. The company’s preliminary fourth-quarter attributable gold production of 197.80 thousand ounces was down year over year from 224.00 thousand ounces (January 21, 2026), which points to a heavier reliance on silver-driven revenue to meet the quarter’s targets. The refined silver and gold segment posted 697.20 million in last-quarter revenue, reflecting both volumes and pricing; with revenue rising 42.10% year over year in the prior quarter and adjusted EPS up 50.00% year over year, the blend of mix improvement and pricing support remains central to the forthcoming print. If the early-February rebound in precious metals sustains into the reporting period, the refined silver and gold operations should benefit from higher realized prices, underpinning the earnings forecast while buffering the effects of the earlier gold output decline.

Operational execution and cost control will be critical to converting price exposure into margin. Cost normalization in mining, processing, and logistics—particularly energy inputs and reagent costs—can support EBITDA and EBIT conversion against volatile realized prices. The company’s sequential net profit signal (last quarter’s GAAP net profit was 169.00 million, with quarter-on-quarter change of approximately -10.89%) indicates that tight cost control and stable throughput are necessary to meet or exceed current-quarter EPS expectations after a soft sequential performance. Given the refined silver and gold segment’s size, even modest price improvements or throughput gains can have a meaningful impact on margins and net income, especially when aligned with disciplined capex scheduling and maintenance planning.

Silver Operations as the Growth Lever

Silver is positioned as the most dynamic lever for the quarter’s revenue and profit cadence. Markets observed an intense sequence of price moves—sell-offs on January 30, 2026, followed by a rebound on February 3, 2026 and renewed pressure by February 5, 2026—highlighting the importance of price realization timing for revenue recognition. While prices fluctuated, last quarter’s revenue tied to silver and gold was 697.20 million, and overall revenue expanded 42.10% year over year, signaling that improved silver pricing across 2025 into early 2026 has been a pivotal driver. The company’s 2026 silver production guidance of 25–27 million ounces (January 26–27, 2026) sets a constructive medium-term operational baseline that, when paired with stable or firm silver prices, points to upside against the year-ago comp embedded in this quarter’s forecast.

The sensitivity of adjusted EPS to silver prices is especially pronounced this quarter because gold output was lower year over year, shifting performance dependence toward silver production and realized prices. A rebound in spot prices by February 3, 2026 provided immediate relief to equities across the silver mining cohort, including Pan American Silver, and offers a potential tailwind to the current-quarter earnings quality if the improvement in pricing is captured in sales and hedges. The company’s forecast of adjusted EPS at 0.83 and EBIT at 580.12 million implicitly assumes stronger year-over-year pricing tailwinds and operational execution; if silver prices stabilize or grind higher through the quarter-end reconciliation, the silver operations can support both top line and margin expansion relative to the prior year.

Throughput and cost normalization in silver mines are equally important. Optimizing mill availability, improving recoveries, and reducing unit costs per tonne can lift gross margin and net profit margin even when price volatility is high. The last quarter’s gross margin of 49.91% demonstrates the potential for healthy conversion under balanced operating conditions; maintaining or improving that level depends on effective mine scheduling, targeted development work, and tight control of energy and consumables. As volumes and recoveries meet plan, the silver operations can sustain momentum and underpin the company’s revenue estimate of 1.07 billion with a year-over-year growth expectation of 33.78%, reinforcing the contribution of silver to meeting the quarter’s EPS aim.

Key Stock-Price Drivers This Quarter

Precious-metals price volatility is the most immediate driver of the stock’s performance around the print. The market saw a sharp sell-off in late January 2026, a rebound in early February 2026, and another retreat by February 5, 2026; these moves directly affect near-term revenue and margin expectations given the company’s exposure to silver and gold pricing. The degree to which the quarter’s sales capture favorable price windows will influence adjusted EPS, which is projected at 0.83 with 132.15% year-over-year growth, and EBIT at 580.12 million with 192.08% year-over-year growth. Even in the absence of explicit gross margin and net margin forecasts, the last quarter’s gross margin of 49.91% and net margin of 19.73% offer a tangible benchmark: if realized prices firm and unit costs are contained, margins can re-rate toward or above those levels.

Operational execution remains the second major driver. After reporting GAAP net profit of 169.00 million in the prior quarter and a sequential contraction of about -10.89%, the current quarter hinges on throughput stability across the portfolio and disciplined cost management. The preliminary decline in gold production year over year suggests the quarter relies more on silver operations to meet targets; this places heightened importance on recovery rates, maintenance scheduling, and ore quality in silver assets. Sustained mill reliability and adherence to mine plans should support revenue conversion even if price volatility persists.

Capital allocation and development cadence across 2026 form the third key influence on investor interpretation of the print. The company projected 2026 capital expenditure of 515.00 million to 550.00 million on January 21, 2026, which frames the investment runway for productivity improvements and cost reductions. Clarity around the distribution of capex—particularly toward silver-focused projects with strong paybacks—can affect how the market extrapolates margin trajectory into 2026. Efficient capex deployment, alongside stable operating costs, can mitigate the potential margin compression that might result from price volatility, thereby supporting the higher adjusted EPS and EBIT trajectories embedded in the current-quarter forecast.

Analyst Opinions

From January 1, 2026 through February 11, 2026, published sell-side views are overwhelmingly bullish for Pan American Silver (100% bullish, 0% bearish). On February 3, 2026, RBC Capital’s Josh Wolfson maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $55.00, reflecting a positive stance into the fourth-quarter results. The RBC view aligns with the company’s current-quarter projections of 1.07 billion in revenue and 0.83 in adjusted EPS, suggesting confidence in the earnings trajectory despite recent price volatility in precious metals. RBC’s rating also implies that near-term operational execution and the leverage to silver pricing are expected to sustain revenue growth and EPS improvement year over year.

In assessing this quarter’s setup, the bullish majority emphasizes the importance of silver-driven revenue and earnings sensitivity. With attributable gold production lower year over year and silver operations poised as the growth lever, sell-side optimism centers on the ability of Pan American Silver to capitalize on silver price rebounds—like those observed on February 3, 2026—and to convert improved price environments into margin accretion. The RBC price target of $55.00 embeds assumptions of continued operational stability and price support, resonating with the company’s EBIT estimate of 580.12 million and year-over-year growth expectations across each forecast metric. While consensus gross margin and net margin forecasts are not explicitly available, analysts implicitly reference last quarter’s margin structure as a benchmark for what disciplined operations can deliver when price conditions are favorable.

The prevailing bullish perspective is further supported by the revenue composition. Last quarter’s refined silver and gold revenue of 697.20 million underscores the scale of price leverage in the portfolio; with overall revenue up 42.10% year over year and adjusted EPS up 50.00% year over year, the potential for year-over-year improvement in the current quarter—revenue estimated up 33.78% and adjusted EPS up 132.15%—bolsters confidence in the near-term earnings trajectory. Analysts also track the company’s 2026 silver production guidance at 25–27 million ounces as an operational anchor for extrapolating 2026 performance beyond the quarter, suggesting that efficiency gains and stability in silver assets can provide ongoing support to EBIT conversion.

The bullish camp nonetheless recognizes that the stock’s path around the print will depend on how realized prices, throughput, and unit costs coalesce. The sharp moves across late January and early February 2026 inject uncertainty into top-line outcomes, but the rebound on February 3, 2026 demonstrated how quickly sentiment can improve if spot prices firm. In that context, RBC’s maintained Buy rating conveys confidence that Pan American Silver’s operating base and production plans can weather volatility and deliver on the guidance rails implied by the company’s forecasts. For investors interpreting the results on February 18, 2026 Post Market, the majority view is that silver-led leverage, disciplined operations, and a constructive 2026 investment plan can underpin earnings quality despite the recent market turbulence in precious metals.