Switzerland's gold exports in February recorded an 18% month-on-month decline, falling to their lowest level since the policy fluctuations of last August, influenced by slowing demand from key markets such as the United Kingdom and India on March 20. As a barometer for global physical gold flows, Swiss customs trade statistics are consistently viewed as a window into market sentiment. The slowdown in exports is not an isolated incident but reflects the cautious stance of core consumer countries amid volatile gold prices. Notably, shipments to the UK, a key over-the-counter trading hub, were halved from 43 tonnes in January to 20 tonnes, indicating a decrease in activity among institutional investors regarding physical deliveries.

Looking back to the third quarter of last year, the global gold market experienced significant turbulence due to adjustments in U.S. customs tariffs on Swiss gold bars. Relevant data indicated that Swiss gold exports to the United States saw an extreme drop of over 99% in August 2025, with monthly shipments amounting to just 0.3 tonnes. Such policy-induced supply shocks have posed severe challenges for refiners and transit hubs. Although subsequent exemptions were implemented, the recovery period for trade flows has been prolonged. In the first quarter of 2025, Switzerland exported gold worth $36 billion to the United States, a volume so substantial that even minor changes in market access can trigger ripple effects.

On the consumption side, Swiss exports to India fell to 13 tonnes in February, significantly lower than the 23 tonnes recorded the previous month, due to weak domestic demand and persistent discounts. The physical gold market is currently in a complex phase, caught between recovery from the shadow of policy interventions and weak end-consumer demand. While trade with the United States has gradually normalized, structural adjustments in global trade surpluses are ongoing. Future gold price movements will heavily depend on the recovery of premiums in core physical markets. Finding a new equilibrium between gold's traditional safe-haven attributes and physical premiums will be a key focus for market participants in the next phase.