Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the express delivery industry has entered a new phase of anti-involution, with focus on Q3 performance and peak season pricing developments. The firm recommends monitoring pricing situations in other regions, execution strength and sustainability, and peak season pricing in the near term.

For this new phase of anti-involution, the firm presents three scenarios: 1) Industry price floors are eliminated, profits continue to recover, eventually trending toward utility-like characteristics, with large-scale dividends while protecting courier rights. 2) Many regions continue previous competitive dynamics, leading to increased industry differentiation. 3) Higher-level integration and M&A possibilities, optimizing the supply side.

**Key Findings:**

**August Industry Data Release by National Postal Administration and Express Companies**

According to the National Postal Administration, express delivery business revenue reached 118.96 billion yuan in August, up 4.2% year-over-year. Express delivery volume completed 16.15 billion pieces, up 12.3% year-over-year.

YTO Express completed 5.39 billion pieces in August, up 9.82% year-over-year, with revenue per piece at 2.15 yuan, down 1.13% year-over-year. STO Express completed 4.434 billion pieces, up 14.47% year-over-year, with revenue per piece at 2.06 yuan, up 3.0% year-over-year. Yunda completed 4.119 billion pieces, up 5.16% year-over-year, with revenue per piece at 1.92 yuan, down 3.52% year-over-year.

**August Express Volume Growth Slightly Declined, Unit Prices Rose Month-over-Month**

August express delivery volume growth decelerated, rising 12.3% year-over-year, with full-year industry growth expected around 15%. Industry revenue per piece reached 7.37 yuan in August, up 0.1% month-over-month, representing a 0.01 yuan sequential increase.

Since August, the express delivery anti-involution campaign has continued advancing, with sustained price increases in major production regions, driving industry unit prices higher.

**Express Companies' Unit Prices Rose Month-over-Month with Varying Increases, Volume Growth Continued**

Month-over-month unit price changes: STO (+0.09 yuan) > YTO (+0.07 yuan) > Yunda (+0.01 yuan) = Industry average (+0.01 yuan). All major express companies saw sequential unit price improvements, with STO showing the largest recovery magnitude.

Volume growth continued across companies, with year-over-year volume growth rates: YTO (+11.1%) > STO (+10.9%) > Yunda (+8.7%).

**September Nationwide Price Increases Following Suit, Optimistic on Continued Unit Price Growth and Profit Recovery**

Beyond major production regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang, other regions nationwide have successively announced price increases in September, including Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Henan, and Shandong. Industry unit prices are expected to continue rising in September, with optimism for major express companies' Q3 profit recovery.

**Risk Warnings:** Industry price competition intensity exceeding expectations; declining express delivery demand; major changes in industry structure; rising labor cost risks.