Title

Earning Preview: Coterra Energy Inc. revenue is expected to increase by 33.53%, and institutional views are predominantly bullish

Abstract

Coterra Energy Inc. will report quarterly results on February 26, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to higher year-over-year revenue and earnings and investors watching how segment mix, capital discipline, and merger developments shape the near-term trajectory.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the upcoming quarter indicates revenue of $1.87 billion, up 33.53% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.48, up 11.19% year over year, alongside an EBIT estimate of $535.97 million, up 28.16% year over year. Margin forecasts are not widely disclosed; the setup emphasizes a step-up in top-line scale with positive operating leverage embedded in the EBIT outlook.

Crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs remain the core earnings drivers, with last quarter’s revenue mix led by crude oil and supportive contributions from gas and NGLs; the mix and hedging profile will guide realizations and cash conversion into the print. Crude oil stands out as the most promising near-term contributor given its $984.00 million revenue base last quarter and the overall projected 33.53% year-over-year expansion in total revenue, suggesting room for outperformance if volumes and realizations hold in line with expectations.

Last Quarter Review

Coterra Energy Inc. delivered revenue of $1.82 billion last quarter (up 33.70% year over year), gross profit margin of 72.20%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $322.00 million, net profit margin of 19.21%, and adjusted EPS of $0.41 (up 28.13% year over year). A notable sequential dynamic was the 36.99% quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit, underscoring the earnings sensitivity to commodity realizations and expense timing across the quarter.

By business line, crude oil generated $984.00 million, natural gas $519.00 million, NGLs $213.00 million, with derivatives and other contributing $62.00 million and $39.00 million respectively; total revenue advanced strongly year over year, led by the crude-weighted mix.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Oil, gas, and NGLs revenue and earnings cadence

The core portfolio continues to be anchored by crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs, which together accounted for the vast majority of last quarter’s $1.82 billion revenue. The upcoming quarter’s consensus points to $1.87 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $0.48, implying a double-digit year-over-year increase in earnings even as segment realizations and volume timing can create intra-quarter variance. With EBIT estimated at $535.97 million and up 28.16% year over year, the market is effectively discounting operating leverage within the base business, scaled by a commodity mix that skewed toward oil last quarter. In practical terms, share count stability, unit costs, and the realized price deck will determine how much of the revenue expansion translates into per-share profitability.

The gross margin printed at 72.20% last quarter and the net margin at 19.21%, a backdrop that reinforces how fixed-cost absorption and field-level efficiencies can preserve profitability across price cycles. While margin forecasts for the current quarter are not broadly issued, EBIT expectations indicate that cost discipline remains a tailwind for earnings flow-through. The balance of crude oil and gas pricing will be crucial for the revenue-to-EPS bridge; if crude realizations remain resilient while gas trends show stability, adjusted EPS is positioned to track near the $0.48 consensus with potential for minor deviations based on hedging settlements and differential behavior.

The sequential pattern in net profit last quarter (-36.99% quarter over quarter) highlights that quarterly comparisons can be influenced by timing of sales, turnarounds, and derivative settlements. Against that backdrop, the year-over-year growth embedded in current estimates signals that the business enters the print with a degree of cushion from higher top-line expectations and EBIT support. Net-net, consensus implies a constructive spread between revenue growth and cost growth, with leverage to commodity realizations and disciplined capital execution.

Most promising business: Crude oil contribution and mix-led upside

Crude oil was the largest contributor last quarter at $984.00 million and remains the focal point for near-term upside potential into the print. The reliance on oil revenue supports the top-line trajectory implied by the 33.53% year-over-year revenue growth estimate, and a favorable oil-to-gas mix can magnify EBIT progression given oil’s typically stronger margin contribution. While segment-level year-over-year rates are not disclosed, the size of the crude revenue base and consensus momentum suggest that crude-driven realizations and volumes could steer the variance around headline results.

The revenue mix last quarter—where crude oil contributed the majority share—sets up a clear path for maintaining operating leverage, especially if oil differentials remain orderly. Any incremental improvement in crude logistics, liftings, or unhedged realizations would likely track through to EBIT, reinforcing the $535.97 million estimate. Conversely, a modest pullback in oil prices relative to modeling inputs could compress the spread to consensus, but the base size and cash generation capacity of the oil stream should still support the year-over-year growth profile embedded in revenue and EPS estimates.

Operationally, capital allocation to high-return oil locations serves as a direct lever for sustaining growth while keeping per-unit costs in check. With aggregate revenue expected to climb meaningfully year over year, crude’s outsize role offers a straightforward way for the company to deliver to or above the top line, particularly if natural gas and NGLs provide steady ancillary contributions rather than leading the result. The focus for investors will be how crude volumes and realizations stack up to models and what that implies for full-year cash generation.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: Print-day delivery, corporate actions, and capital framework

Three factors appear most influential for shares into the quarterly announcement. The first is the print-day delivery versus consensus across revenue and adjusted EPS; with $1.87 billion and $0.48 as the key anchors, even small beats or misses can recalibrate near-term sentiment given the stock’s sensitivity to realized commodity prices. The second is the strategic overlay from the announced all-stock merger with Devon Energy, including integration timelines, synergy milestones, and any commentary on portfolio optimization; investor emphasis centers on the anticipated $1 billion pre-tax annual synergy target by year-end 2027 and pathways to execution. The third is capital framework clarity across 2026, specifically how free cash flow allocation between reinvestment and shareholder returns is balanced in light of the growth and merger outlook.

The proposed combination has been characterized positively by several institutions due to scale, inventory runway, and modeled free cash flow yield in outer years, which can influence how investors handicap near-term results. Any incremental color on asset sales or portfolio rebalancing—especially with references to non-core packages—could shape expectations for capital efficiency and cash returns this year. On the quarter itself, disclosures around realized differentials, hedging impacts, and operating costs will be closely watched, as they can tilt EBIT relative to the $535.97 million expectation and, in turn, affect the durability of the $0.48 EPS trajectory.

Taken together, management’s discussion around cadence for volumes, embedded cost trends, and operational execution will frame how sustainable the current revenue and EPS run-rate looks across the next few quarters. The guidance quality—both quantitative and qualitative—will be key for sustaining the multiple the market is willing to pay, particularly as investors filter quarterly volatility through the lens of prospective merger benefits and capital discipline.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent commentary, the balance of views skews bullish. Counting rating actions and previews since January 2026, bullish/outperform or buy-leaning stances outnumber neutral-to-bearish updates by a wide margin (approximately nine bullish versus two bearish/neutral), so the prevailing perspective anticipates constructive delivery against consensus alongside strategic upside from the proposed merger.

RBC Capital Markets views the announced all-stock combination as positive for shareholders, citing enhanced scale, inventory duration, and a strong free cash flow outlook; the firm highlighted a synergy target of $1 billion by year-end 2027 and modeled a 2027 free cash flow yield near the upper end of large-cap peers, while noting a mid-2026 closing assumption. On the standalone equity story into the quarter, Barclays maintains an Overweight view with a $34 target, Piper Sandler reiterates an Overweight rating with a $37 target, Mizuho holds a Buy at $36, and Stephens remains Overweight with a $34 target; these stances collectively emphasize disciplined capital deployment, robust balance sheet capacity, and healthy returns on invested capital as reasons to expect solid execution against quarterly benchmarks. Additional buy-leaning reinforcement comes from Roth MKM maintaining a Buy rating earlier in February, and William Blair initiating/maintaining Outperform in the prior months captured within the six-month window, further underlining favorable sentiment around the earnings setup and strategic narrative.

The bullish case coalesces around three planks. First, consensus numbers—$1.87 billion revenue and $0.48 adjusted EPS—are seen as achievable with room for modest upside if crude realizations and field-level efficiencies remain supportive, which syncs with estimated EBIT of $535.97 million and a 28.16% year-over-year step-up. Second, the merger framework strengthens the medium-term investment case by targeting material synergy capture and potentially improving portfolio depth and capital efficiency, which several institutions believe can accelerate free cash flow growth once integration milestones are met. Third, the company’s track record of cost control and balance sheet management provides a buffer against commodity volatility, enabling consistent capital returns when cash generation allows; this is reflected in the tendency of buy-rated analysts to emphasize capital discipline and resiliency within their investment theses.

While there have been downgrades—Roth Capital to Neutral and Scotiabank to Sector Perform—these appear to be the minority in the recent period and often reflect valuation balance and near-term uncertainty rather than a fundamental break in expectations. The majority view remains that the upcoming print should demonstrate continued revenue growth year over year, reasonable alignment to the $0.48 EPS consensus, and steady operating momentum, with strategic optionality from merger-related catalysts adding to the narrative. In short, analysts leaning bullish expect confirmation of operational delivery and clear capital allocation messaging to maintain or improve sentiment as investors digest both the quarter and the pathway to integration.