CITIC SEC has released a research report stating that on February 25, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines issued a ban on lithium ore exports. This policy aims to strengthen mineral regulation and promote the development of downstream mineral processing. In 2025, 19% of China's imported spodumene concentrate originated from Zimbabwe. It is projected that Zimbabwe will account for 12% of global lithium resource production in 2026. The country's export ban on lithium ore is expected to exacerbate short-term supply tightness for lithium carbonate in China, potentially leading to a substantial rise in lithium prices. Investors are advised to focus on assets not affected by this export policy.
Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium ore exports is intended to promote local mineral processing. According to SMM and Mysteel, on February 25, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate halt to all exports of raw lithium ore and spodumene concentrate, including shipments already in transit. Only mining enterprises holding valid mining licenses and possessing approved mineral processing capacity will be authorized to export minerals. Under these regulations, exports of lithium sulfate from Zimbabwe remain unaffected. The Ministry stated that the policy is designed to enhance mineral supervision and accountability, foster the growth of local value-added processing, and maximize the retention of mineral value within Zimbabwe.
Signs of Zimbabwe's lithium export ban were evident earlier and may increase industry concentration. On June 10, 2025, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines had already announced a ban on spodumene concentrate exports effective January 2027, requiring mining companies to establish local lithium salt smelting capacity. This recent suspension is viewed as a further measure to urge leading mining enterprises to sign agreements and build local processing plants, thereby increasing industrial value-added. It is anticipated that the government will provide export windows for major miners before local smelting capacity is fully established, while excluding informal traders or unlicensed miners. This move is expected to raise the export threshold for Zimbabwean lithium ore, increase industry concentration, and benefit Chinese mining companies operating in the country.
Zimbabwe's lithium ore production is projected to constitute approximately 12% of the global total in 2026, with the export ban likely to push lithium prices significantly higher. According to USGS data, Zimbabwe's lithium resource production in 2025 was 28,000 metric tons of metal content, accounting for about 10% of global production. Essentially all of Zimbabwe's exports of raw lithium ore and spodumene concentrate are destined for China. Chinese customs data shows that in 2025, China's total lithium ore imports reached 7.75 million tons, with 1.2 million tons sourced from Zimbabwe, representing 19% of total imports. Based on expansion plans announced by Zimbabwean lithium miners, the country's lithium ore production is forecast to reach 235,000 tons in 2026, constituting roughly 12% of global lithium resource production.
As downstream demand enters its peak season and with Chinese lithium salt inventories remaining low according to SMM, short-term supply tightness for lithium carbonate in China is expected to intensify until Zimbabwe's export ban is lifted. This situation is likely to drive a substantial increase in lithium prices.
Amid a wave of resource nationalism, strategic metals like lithium may continue to experience supply disruptions. In recent years, resource-rich countries for metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and tin have successively implemented strong control policies, including Myanmar's tin ore ban, the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban, Indonesia's significant reduction of nickel ore production quotas, and Zimbabwe's lithium ore export ban. Against the backdrop of global resource nationalism and narratives surrounding US-China competition for critical mineral dominance, unexpected policy changes from resource countries concerning strategic metals are anticipated to continue causing supply disruptions.