Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter, has presented projections indicating that SpaceX's ambition to achieve a $1.78 trillion valuation at its initial public offering hinges on its 人工智能 segment's revenue soaring approximately one hundredfold by 2030.

The Wall Street investment bank's calculations, disclosed during presentations to potential investors, show Space Exploration Technologies Corp AI business revenue skyrocketing from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030. The company's total revenue is projected to grow from last year's $18.7 billion to $474 billion by 2030.

This aggressive forecast from Goldman Sachs reflects the current massive investment wave in 人工智能 by tech giants, a trend that has propelled U.S. stock markets to successive record highs. As SpaceX officially commences its IPO roadshow, the bank has verbally shared this profit model with asset management institutions. This public offering could raise up to $86 billion.

SpaceX's prospectus reveals that the valuation of this Elon Musk-led company, which spans rocket launches and large AI models, rests on a key assumption: the total addressable market for its 人工智能 subsidiary, xAI, is $2.65 quadrillion. This market potential vastly exceeds the combined $2 trillion potential market for the Starlink satellite internet and aerospace businesses.

Informed sources have confirmed Goldman's revenue estimates: SpaceX's 人工智能 division revenue is projected to surge 388% year-on-year to $15.6 billion in 2026, climbing further to $34.5 billion in 2027.

Both SpaceX and Goldman Sachs declined to comment on related inquiries.

Goldman Sachs predicts Starlink satellite internet revenue will reach $144 billion in 2030, less than half of the AI business revenue. Rocket launch revenue is expected to grow from $4.1 billion last year to $8.3 billion in 2030.

On profitability, the company's adjusted EBITDA is forecast to surge from $6.6 billion in 2025 to $352 billion in 2030.

SpaceX reported negative free cash flow of $13.8 billion last year. Goldman Sachs expects the company's free cash flow to turn positive to $72 billion by 2031.

To fulfill the high-growth revenue expectations for AI, its Grok series of large models must catch up to and surpass leading developers like Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI in core areas such as code development, cybersecurity, AI agents, and conversational large models.

However, the original xAI business development has been repeatedly hampered by internal issues. Within two years of its founding, Musk cleared out all ten co-founders. Product launches have fallen short of expectations, and paid subscriptions for individuals and enterprises are far from the scale needed to realize the projected revenue.

A 300-megawatt "Colossus 1" supercomputing data center in Memphis, Tennessee, is operating at low utilization due to the lukewarm commercialization of Grok. Musk has opted to lease the facility's computing power to competitor Anthropic.

Goldman Sachs ultimately secured the lead underwriting role for this SpaceX IPO, outbidding rivals such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and UBS. This listing project is expected to bring tens of millions of dollars in underwriting fees to the lead bank.