Abstract
Nvidia Corporation will report fiscal fourth‑quarter results after market close on February 25, 2026; investors are watching revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS trajectories, with consensus pointing to a strong year-over-year uplift amid continued strength in data center demand and a watchful eye on supply-chain execution and product ramps.
Market Forecast
- Based on the company’s latest projections and market estimates, Nvidia Corporation’s fiscal Q4 revenue is forecast at $61.08 billion, implying a 60.58% year-over-year increase; forecast EPS is $1.52, a projected 80.66% year-over-year rise, and EBIT is projected at $44.30 billion, up 80.63% year over year; company margin guidance for the quarter was not provided through the forecast feed. - The main business highlight is that the data center franchise remains the primary growth engine into this quarter, with demand visibility supported by customer ramps and constrained by memory and power availability; the outlook centers on shipment execution, capacity alignment, and software attach that underpins platform economics. - The most promising segment with incremental growth potential remains automotive and edge inference from a small base, where last quarter revenue was $0.59 billion; momentum depends on execution of design wins and content per vehicle, although year-over-year segment detail was not disclosed alongside the headline forecast.
Last Quarter Review
- Nvidia Corporation delivered fiscal Q3 (prior quarter) results with revenue of $57.01 billion, a gross profit margin of 73.41%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $31.91 billion, a net profit margin of 55.98%, and adjusted EPS of $1.30, reflecting a 60.49% year-over-year increase; company-level year-over-year revenue growth was 62.49%. - A key financial highlight was the scale of profitability: GAAP net profit rose quarter-on-quarter by 20.77%, with operating leverage supported by high utilization and software contribution. - Main business highlights showed data center revenue of $51.22 billion, accounting for 89.84% of total revenue, complemented by gaming at $4.27 billion, professional visualization at $0.76 billion, automotive at $0.59 billion, and OEM and other at $0.17 billion; company-level year-over-year growth was 62.49%, underlining the performance base from which data center executes.
Current Quarter Outlook
Data Center Momentum and What to Watch in Fiscal Q4
The data center business is the primary driver for Nvidia Corporation’s upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter print. The company’s current-quarter revenue estimate is $61.08 billion, up 60.58% year over year, with EPS forecast at $1.52, up 80.66% year over year, reflecting operating leverage consistent with high-value system shipments and a recurring software and platform layer. The execution swing factor remains supply alignment—particularly high-bandwidth memory (HBM) availability and final-system throughput—against order backlogs that continue to be fulfilled through multi-quarter ramps. Recent news flow suggests memory is a fulcrum: reports indicate Nvidia is close to approving Samsung’s HBM4 for AI accelerators and that the supplier is preparing for mass production, which, if realized, would help smooth component constraints in later quarters; such an outcome would mitigate bottlenecks that can affect both system mix and shipment timing.
On the demand side, near-term visibility is anchored by committed deployments and ongoing capacity additions across cloud and enterprise buyers, which continues to support the top-line estimate. Shipment mix will matter for profitability; the combination of higher-ASP accelerators, networking, and software stack attach typically supports strong gross margin performance, though the company has not provided a gross margin target for this quarter in the forecast feed. Investors should expect net margin and EPS sensitivity to hinge on memory costs, system integration timing, and the cadence of customer acceptance of new platforms. A steady mid-70s gross margin profile achieved last quarter provides a high starting point, but cost inflation in components and currency effects could move realized margins within a range.
The software and platform layer is a second lever within data center. Nvidia Corporation continues to extend its model and application ecosystem with offerings such as the Earth‑2 open models for weather and climate workflows designed to accelerate forecasting pipelines. These software initiatives reinforce platform stickiness and support utilization across installed fleets, thereby complementing hardware revenue with higher-margin software and services. In the quarter at hand, direct revenue impact from these initiatives may be modest relative to hardware, but the attach dynamics are relevant for underpinning long-term EPS scalability and smoothing cyclicality within the data center revenue base.
Automotive and Edge Inference as Emerging Upside from a Small Base
Automotive recorded $0.59 billion in revenue last quarter and remains a small but expanding contributor in Nvidia Corporation’s portfolio. The near-term outlook focuses on execution of pipeline programs and the ramp of new platforms with selected partners, particularly as vehicles move toward higher compute content per unit and more AI-enabled features. While this quarter’s consolidated revenue and EPS are dominated by data center shipments, incremental progress in automotive adoption can contribute to diversification and optionality in later fiscal periods.
The company’s design-win depth and platform roadmap tie automotive performance to production timelines, with revenue recognition typically trailing program announcements. Visibility in any single quarter can be uneven, but strong content opportunities exist when multi-domain controllers consolidate ADAS, infotainment, and autonomy on shared compute. The investment community is also attuned to how edge inference use cases beyond transportation might expand the TAM for modules and embedded software; although near-term financial impact is relatively limited, these developments can influence the narrative for medium-term growth. For this quarter, investors should look for color on pipeline conversion and scaling plans into fiscal 2027.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter: Supply Chain, Product Cadence, and Capital Allocation
The most important stock-price drivers for Nvidia Corporation in this report window are supply-chain normalization, product cadence, and capital allocation decisions. On supply, any incremental clarity that HBM4 supply is tracking toward qualification and volume timelines could reduce uncertainty around second-half calendar 2026 shipments and mix. Conversely, reports that constrained memory supplies could delay new consumer GPUs and temper volumes in gaming point to cross-segment trade-offs when supply remains tight; investors will parse whether prioritized allocation to data center sustains margins and growth while temporarily limiting gaming unit availability.
Product cadence and the pace at which new platforms enter volume production will shape both near-term revenue phasing and medium-term backlog health. Any commentary on the trajectory of next-generation accelerators and networking, together with customer readiness and power/cooling infrastructure availability, will inform shipment timing in fiscal Q1 and Q2. Finally, capital allocation will likely remain centered on reinvestment to support growth. News flow indicating potential large strategic investments into the AI ecosystem highlights the company’s willingness to deploy capital where it sees platform advantages; investors will look for management’s articulation of expected returns, guardrails, and how such moves might reinforce software and systems economics. In the immediate term, the market will emphasize whether revenue and EPS land within or above the tight ranges implied by the estimate and how operating expenses track versus prior run-rates.
Analyst Opinions
The analyst skew ahead of the fiscal fourth‑quarter release is overwhelmingly positive within the January to February 2026 window, with a clear majority of bullish views and no countervailing bearish calls in the collected set; the bullish-to-bearish ratio is 100% to 0%. Several well-followed institutions reiterated Buy or Overweight ratings and raised or affirmed price targets while highlighting continued demand visibility and margin sustainability.
UBS maintained a Buy rating and raised its price target to $245 per share in January 2026, noting a constructive earnings setup given positive supply-chain signals and management’s stance on growth and margin durability. The firm underscored that the stock’s middling performance relative to AI peers had tempered expectations, potentially improving risk-reward into the print.
Wells Fargo reiterated a Buy rating with a $265 price target, emphasizing upside tied to reopening pathways in certain markets and the contribution from high-end exports where applicable; it also pointed to the company’s expanding role in verticals that benefit from AI acceleration.
Bernstein reaffirmed its Buy rating with a $275 target, citing favorable valuation relative to upward-biased numbers and no visible signs of a near-term slowdown in AI infrastructure spending; the firm continued to position Nvidia Corporation as a top idea into 2026 within its coverage.
Jefferies reiterated a Buy rating with a $275 target, focusing on execution across hardware and software stacks and the potential for the current quarter to reflect continued operating leverage as higher-ASP products and platform software layer into shipments.
RBC Capital maintained a Buy rating with a $240 target, reinforcing confidence in the fiscal Q4 trajectory and the durability of the earnings power as software and systems scale with deployments.
J.P. Morgan maintained a Buy rating, highlighting the company’s expanding role in enabling AI applications in areas such as healthcare and drug discovery; while this is a nascent revenue contributor compared with data center, the institution noted the optionality this provides to longer-term growth vectors.
The majority view centers on three points. First, current-quarter revenue and EPS forecasts (revenue at $61.08 billion, up 60.58% year over year; EPS at $1.52, up 80.66% year over year) reflect a base of committed shipments that underpins confidence in near-term delivery versus consensus. Second, profitability is expected to remain robust even as input costs can fluctuate, given favorable mix, software attach, and systems economics; although the company did not provide a gross margin target in the forecast feed, last quarter’s 73.41% provides a high bar and analysts anticipate similar resilience if component mix holds. Third, while memory availability is a gating factor for certain product lines and may affect the cadence of gaming releases, analysts largely view any idiosyncratic delays as manageable given prioritization toward data center platforms that drive consolidated growth and margins.
Within this framework, the consensus bullish camp is looking for confirmation of three elements in the upcoming report and commentary: adherence to the revenue and EPS ranges implied by the estimates, qualitative reinforcement that supply-chain progress—especially around HBM—aligns with shipment plans through mid‑2026, and incremental data points showing the platform layer continues to deepen engagement, such as new model families and toolchains that support developer adoption. A clean print along those lines would validate current price targets and support upward revisions to outer-period estimates, according to the majority of institutions quoted.