JPMorgan has updated its preference ranking for Macau gaming stocks, with Galaxy Entertainment (00027) remaining its top pick and receiving an "Overweight" rating. MGM China (02282) follows as the second choice, also rated "Overweight." Sands China (01928) and Wynn Macau (01128) rank next, both carrying "Overweight" ratings. Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO.US) holds a "Neutral" rating, while Melco International Development (00200) and SJM Holdings (00880) are both rated "Underweight." The firm advises investors to maintain selectivity in the Macau market, focusing on individual stocks' consensus risks and valuation levels rather than waiting for a broad sector re-rating.
According to the bank's data, Macau's gross gaming revenue for the first 22 days of February totaled MOP14.3 billion, representing a daily average of MOP650 million. Last week's average daily revenue—covering both quiet and peak periods during the Lunar New Year holiday—reached MOP785 million, falling short of the bank's MOP850 million expectation. Performance was sluggish at the start of the holiday, with daily revenue averaging around MOP450 million during the first four to five days, reflecting a double-digit year-on-year decline. However, from the sixth day onward, activity surged, with daily gross gaming revenue exceeding MOP1.2 billion, indicating a 10% to 15% year-on-year increase.
The holiday period has not yet concluded, and the coming days are considered critical. The post-holiday "trailing demand" phase typically sees increased spending by high-end players. JPMorgan expects to gain a full picture of the month's performance after obtaining complete weekend data. Given the mixed Lunar New Year results, the bank has slightly adjusted its February gross gaming revenue forecast to a range of flat to 2% growth year-on-year, down from the previous projection of 2% to 5% growth. Excluding seasonal and calendar effects, gross gaming revenue for the first two months of 2026 is expected to increase by 12% to 13%, revised from the earlier estimate of 13% to 14%, aligning with both the bank's and market expectations for the industry.