Direxion Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bull 3x Shares (TMF), a leveraged ETF tracking long-term Treasury bonds, plummeted 5.62% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. This sharp decline comes as Treasury yields spiked dramatically, with investors fleeing what has traditionally been considered one of the world's safest investments.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly touched 4.516% before settling at 4.35%, up 4.5 basis points. Similarly, the 30-year Treasury yield rose 5.4 basis points to 4.83%. This surge in yields, which move inversely to bond prices, is directly impacting TMF's performance due to its 3x leveraged exposure to long-term Treasury bonds.
The sudden yield spike is attributed to expectations of diminishing foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries as new tariffs take effect. Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, described the situation as a "disorderly liquidation" in the bond market. While some speculate that China might be selling its U.S. Treasury holdings in retaliation, others suggest hedge funds are more likely behind the sell-off, potentially unwinding positions in the so-called "basis trade". The market now anxiously awaits two major Treasury auctions scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, which will test foreign demand amid these turbulent conditions.
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