The last liquefied natural gas shipments from the Persian Gulf are nearing Asian and European ports, revealing a severe supply cliff. Natural gas prices have doubled, leaving heavily dependent nations like Pakistan facing potential supply cuts. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks on Qatar's largest LNG facility have structurally disrupted global supply. Analysis from independent shipbroker Affinity indicates that Persian Gulf LNG cargoes already en route before the conflict will arrive within the next ten days, after which some importers will lose all supply from the region.

Markets have reacted swiftly. The Asian LNG benchmark price, Platts JKM, has doubled since the conflict began to approximately $23 per million British thermal units. Shipping costs have also surged due to higher charter rates and longer alternative routes. Qatar's Energy Minister, Saad Al-Kaabi, stated this week that 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity will be offline for the next three to five years due to the attacks, and the country may declare force majeure on some long-term contracts. This situation forces global importers to make difficult choices between competing for alternative supplies from sources like the United States, switching fuels, and implementing demand rationing.

Many energy-poor Asian nations have already initiated energy-saving measures, with some adopting four-day workweeks. The supply cliff is imminent, with a countdown to the final cargoes. Ship-tracking data shows one last batch of Persian Gulf LNG cargoes destined for Asia—which typically absorbs about 90% of the region's exports—and six more heading to Europe. Once these deliveries are complete, supply from the Persian Gulf will cease entirely. Qatar, which produces roughly one-fifth of the world's LNG, halted exports after the Strait of Hormuz was blocked. This week, further Iranian missile strikes hit Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG plant, which accounts for the majority of the country's production capacity.

Al-Kaabi noted that the damage will cause long-term impairment to Qatar's LNG capacity and explicitly stated that force majeure would be declared on some long-term contracts, potentially lasting up to five years. This indicates a structural supply gap in the global LNG market lasting years, not months. Among affected nations, Pakistan is the most vulnerable. Last year, nearly 99% of its LNG imports came from Qatar. The final shipments from Ras Laffan arrived on the second and third days after Iran initiated hostilities. Currently, throughput at Pakistan's two LNG import terminals has dropped to one-sixth of normal levels. According to two informed sources, both terminals will completely cease gas distribution by the end of the month.

Iqbal Ahmed, Chairman and CEO of Pakistan GasPort, which operates one terminal, stated that the terminal will exhaust its processable LNG inventory within days. "After that, we will have a complete supply cut," he said. "We don't know when the next shipment will arrive." Ahmed predicts that if the conflict persists, Pakistan will heavily shift to more expensive and polluting fuel oil for power generation. "I foresee a very difficult year, followed by two to three years of hardship," he added.

Bangladesh faces a similar situation but is slightly better off due to some LNG imports from outside the Persian Gulf. The government has initiated gas rationing measures, including closing universities. Although Japan is the world's second-largest LNG importer, only about 6% of its supply transits the Strait of Hormuz. One Japanese LNG trader said their plan is to procure from the JKM spot market to cover the shortfall. However, another trader revealed that Japanese buyers are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach and planning to return to coal, with only a few considering spot purchases. Japan also plans to expand coal and nuclear power usage, having partially restarted the world's largest nuclear plant in Niigata Prefecture in January.

Tight supply conditions are likely to persist for years, placing structural pressure on the market. Until more vessels are permitted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, global LNG supply will remain constrained. Even if the strait reopens, approximately 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity will be unavailable for three to five years due to damage at the Ras Laffan facility, keeping market supply below pre-conflict levels for an extended period. The force majeure clause announced by Minister Al-Kaabi means that global buyers holding long-term contracts with Qatar will have to rely on the spot market to fill the gap long-term. With the Asian JKM spot price already double its pre-conflict level, this further increases energy cost pressures for importing nations. For developing countries with fragile finances, the conflict between high spot prices and limited foreign exchange reserves will be a core energy security challenge for years to come.