A key sector has suddenly ignited. Spurred by news of Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium ore exports, lithium mining stocks surged across the board after the U.S. market opened tonight. Sigma Lithium saw its shares skyrocket by over 33% at one point, while Albemarle surged by more than 10%. The catalyst was Zimbabwe's announcement of an immediate halt to exports of lithium concentrate and raw ore, signaling a far more aggressive implementation of its resource localization strategy than anticipated. Zimbabwe holds lithium reserves estimated at 126 million tons, making it a major global supplier.
Additionally, as concerns over the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence (AI) eased, most major U.S. tech stocks gained strength, with NVIDIA rising over 1% at one point. The market is currently highly focused on NVIDIA's quarterly earnings report, scheduled for release after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday (early Thursday Beijing time). There is a widespread expectation that NVIDIA will report exceptionally strong results and is likely to raise its performance guidance for the coming quarters.
Lithium mining stocks experienced a broad-based rally. On the evening of February 25th, Beijing time, the three major U.S. stock indices opened higher collectively, with lithium mining stocks leading the gains. Sigma Lithium surged over 33% intraday; at the time of writing, it was up 31.43%. Albemarle rose over 9%, Lithium Argentina AG climbed more than 6%, and Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile gained over 4%.
The driving factor was an announcement from Zimbabwe, the world's fourth-largest lithium producer, that it is suspending all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate effective immediately. The ban applies even to shipments already in transit and will remain in place until further notice.
The country's Minister of Mines, Polite Kambamura, stated on Wednesday that the ban takes effect immediately and its duration depends on mining companies meeting government requirements, although no specific timeline was provided.
This move marks a critical step in Zimbabwe's push for local processing of its mineral resources. The country has already initiated plans to commence lithium sulfate production by 2026.
Official data indicates Zimbabwe's lithium resource reserves are estimated at 126 million tons, ranking among the highest globally and making it one of Africa's most significant lithium-producing regions. In recent years, with large-scale foreign investment flowing into mine development, Zimbabwe has rapidly emerged as a major global supplier of lithium concentrate. This export ban will directly impact overseas refiners reliant on raw materials from Zimbabwe, potentially leading to a reshuffling of the global lithium supply chain.
Furthermore, most major U.S. tech stocks advanced. Tesla and Broadcom each rose over 2%, while Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle gained more than 1%. NVIDIA and Amazon saw increases of nearly 1%. U.S. memory chip stocks also strengthened across the board, with Western Digital surging over 5%, Seagate Technology up more than 4%, and Micron Technology gaining over 2%.
Currently, the U.S. market is intensely focused on the upcoming earnings report from the global AI leader, NVIDIA, for the fourth quarter of its 2025 fiscal year. This report is seen as crucial for determining the sustainability of the tech stock rebound.
The "World's Most Important Earnings Report" is Approaching Scheduled for release after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday (early morning of the 26th, Beijing time), NVIDIA will report its highly anticipated fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.
Amid growing skepticism about AI, this earnings report will significantly influence market judgment regarding AI's future prospects.
The current consensus on Wall Street is that NVIDIA's performance will remain exceptionally strong, and the company is expected to raise its guidance for future quarters.
According to TradingView statistics, Wall Street expects NVIDIA's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter to continue its rapid growth, reaching $63.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of 68.3%. This projected growth rate, however, may be lower than the 77.9% increase seen in the same period last year.
Matt Weller, Global Head of Research at GAIN Capital, cautioned that if NVIDIA's report merely "meets" expectations, it is unlikely to drive the stock price higher. Particularly if the performance guidance is conservative, it could exacerbate concerns about a potential slowdown in AI capital expenditure demand.
Weller predicted that NVIDIA's stock price might react first to its performance guidance, then to any comments regarding the progress of the Blackwell platform's production ramp-up, and finally to any changes in the company's gross margin trajectory.
From a valuation perspective, NVIDIA's forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen below 24 times, nearing its lowest point in five years and significantly below its five-year average of 38 times. Will McMahon, Chief Equity Strategist at MFA Wealth, believes that this relatively cheaper valuation could serve as a catalyst for buying.
Some analysts suggest that for NVIDIA's stock price to resume its upward trend, CEO Jensen Huang must effectively communicate a new narrative, particularly regarding the defense of its market share.
Matt Stucky, Chief Equity Portfolio Manager at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, stated that from a fundamental standpoint, NVIDIA's story remains robust. The question is whether market sentiment can keep pace. In the long run, the key to boosting sentiment lies in whether Jensen Huang can persuasively argue that NVIDIA will maintain its dominant position in the "inference market," which is core to supporting its long-term investment thesis.