1. What are Li Auto-W's Q4 performance expectations? As of December 2, 2025, according to quarterly performance forecast data: - Consensus revenue is projected at 27.56~39.65 billion yuan, a YoY decline of 37.7%~10.4%. - Consensus net profit is estimated between -542 million to 6.16 billion yuan, ranging from a 115.4% drop to a 74.9% increase YoY. - Adjusted net profit is forecast at 431 million yuan, down 89.3% YoY. Investors should monitor whether actual results exceed expectations post-earnings release.
2. Latest sell-side views on Li Auto-W: **Guohai Securities** notes: Li Auto-W faced challenges in Q3 2025, with declining revenue and net profit due to the Li MEGA recall. However, the company maintained control over R&D and SG&A expenses. Q4 deliveries and revenue are expected to soften. Key initiatives include: 1) **Dual-supplier model for Li i6**: Battery supply shifted to dual vendors in November, with monthly capacity targeted to reach 20,000 units by early 2026. 2) **L-series refresh**: Simplified SKU configurations and standard 5C ultra-fast charging across all models. 3) **Return to startup-style management**: CEO Li Xiang refocuses on embodied AI robotics. 4) **In-house M100 chip**: AI systems powered by self-developed M100 chips to launch in 2026.
**Guosheng Securities** adds: Q3 performance was pressured by lower sales and the MEGA recall, impacting margins. Q4 deliveries and revenue are projected to decline YoY, though gross margins may stabilize at 16%~18%. The company outlined a 10-year roadmap covering organizational, product, and tech upgrades, including M100 chip integration by 2026. Li i6 supply constraints are easing, with capacity expected to hit 20,000 units/month in early 2026. Revenue and profitability are forecast to grow from 2025–2027.
*Risk warning: Data and cases herein are for reference only. Market volatility, corporate performance, and policy changes may affect stock prices. Investors should assess risks independently.*