Chinese E-commerce giant JD.com will kick off China’s tech giants’ Q1 earnings next week.

JD.com will report on Tuesday, 13 May and TENCENT will report earnings on Wednesday, 14 May, while  Alibaba will announce results on Thursday, 15 May. 

Despite escalating trade tensions marked by unprecedented tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States, China's technology stocks, including Alibaba, JD.com, Baidu and Tencent Holdings, are showing remarkable resilience and growth potential in 2025. This ongoing trade conflict has paradoxically accelerated China's technological self-reliance and innovation capabilities.

Here are China’s tech giants’ Q1 earnings expectations:

JD.com Retail Margin Can Gain on Subsidy-Aided Sales

JD.com likely raised its retail operating margin above the prior year's level for the second straight quarter in 1Q as more mainland China shoppers buy smartphones, electronics and home appliances using government subsidies. Higher sales of items from these subsidized categories -- which drive more than half of JD.com's revenue -- can deliver greater operating leverage, allowing JD.com to better absorb fixed costs. Such savings probably helped offset cost hikes from JD.com's push into on-demand and food delivery services from February onward.

JD.com's logistics unit (JDL) could have struggled to sustain operating margin gains of more than 2.5 percentage points achieved during the trailing 12 months in 1Q, as the business spent more to expand its warehouse network outside of China.

Alibaba Profit Poised for Local Services, Cloud Lift

Alibaba's Q1(fiscal 4Q) adjusted EBITA gain likely exceeded the prior quarter's operating profit growth of 4% from a year earlier. The continued uplift from narrower local services losses and jump in cloud earnings should have more than offset international digital commerce's shortfalls for a second straight quarter. Profit from Taobao-Tmall group (TTG) probably also rose year-over-year as the firm's push for higher gross merchandise value through the joint utilization of tools within its ecosystem spurred higher customer management revenue. Yet cost hikes could have surpassed revenue gains to lower TTG's 4Q adjusted EBITA margin from a year earlier.

The rise in 4Q cloud revenue and profit would have accelerated from the prior quarter's level with more customer adoption of the business' public cloud products.

TENCENT Profit Remains Driven by Video Games, Not AI

Artificial intelligence will remain a core focus at Tencent's forthcoming 1Q results, though we don't expect the China internet giant to generate significant incremental earnings in AI this year. Tencent should remain relatively unaffected by US tariffs, though its fintech and ad divisions remain exposed to secondary impact on the Chinese economy. Tencent also remains exposed to the risk of further US sanctions, following the Department of Defense's decision to blacklist the firm in January.

Tencent's profit momentum is set to normalize this year following an exceptional 2024, with EPS growth set to decelerate to a low-double-digit-percentage range in 2025, down from 44% last year. Tencent's adjusted profit should rebound sequentially in 1Q, driven by seasonal domestic video game strength.