CICC has maintained its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for Bilibili (BILIBILI-W, 09626; Bilibili Inc., BILI.US) for 2025 and 2026. Currently, the Hong Kong-listed shares trade at 29.3x and 21.9x non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 and 2026 respectively, while the US-listed shares trade at 28.4x and 21.2x. The "Outperform" rating remains unchanged. Considering potential AI integration and new game pipelines, CICC raised the non-GAAP P/E multiples for Hong Kong/US shares to 33x/25x for 2025/2026. This adjustment corresponds to a 9.7% increase in the Hong Kong target price to HK$193 and an 8.7% rise in the US target price to $25, implying potential upside of 12.3% and 16.5% respectively.

Bilibili hosted its 2025 Investor Day in Shanghai on July 11, discussing gaming, advertising commercialization, and AI applications with investors. Concurrently, the BilibiliWorld 2025 carnival (BW2025) launched at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai.

Key business developments show promising trajectories: 1) Gaming operations continue to prioritize "category rejuvenation" and "IP management" through micro-innovations, integrating anime and content creators for sustained IP development. Upcoming milestones include the mini-program and overseas releases of "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Conquest" in late 2025-2026, alongside progress on self-developed titles like "Project: Three Kingdoms Ncard" and "Escape from Duckov," plus the agency game "Dudu Face Mischief." 2) Advertising follows the "One Horizontal, Multiple Verticals" strategy, with confidence in exceeding industry growth rates over three years. Ad penetration and conversion efficiency are expected to rise steadily. 3) Diversified monetization explores content-based value-added services beyond charging programs. 4) AI adoption enhances advertising through recommendation algorithms, creative generation, and smart delivery. Key applications include AI dubbing, panoramic search, comment analysis, and content moderation.

Growth catalysts appear increasingly visible: 1) Gaming revenue, fueled by long-term operation of "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Conquest" (noting strong performance in Season 8 and anniversary servers), is projected to grow 20% YoY in 2025 following mini-program/overseas launches and new game pipelines. 2) Advertising could achieve 15% YoY growth in 2025, with long-term ad load potentially reaching 10% and AI-driven eCPM improvements. 3) Profit elasticity emerges as stable cost growth combines with revenue expansion and structural optimization. Gross margin may hit 37% in 2025, with a long-term trajectory toward 40%-45%.

BW2025 set new records, expanding exhibition space by 30% YoY and selling 350,000 tickets. The event demonstrated vibrant youth-centric social engagement, extending Bilibili's premium content ecosystem offline.