Everbright Securities released a research report stating that the hydrogen-ammonia-methanol industry, as one of the six key future industries prioritized in China's 15th Five-Year Plan, is experiencing a golden period of development driven by policy and industrial synergy. Top-level policy support continues to intensify, and the pace of industrial implementation is steadily advancing. Regarding specific investment targets, the report suggests focusing on: (1) companies that have proactively invested in green methanol production and have obtained relevant certifications (such as RED, ISCC); and (2) companies developing more efficient hydrogen production technologies (like PEM, AEM) and related equipment manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from subsequent project development.
The catalyst for this analysis is a joint notice issued on March 16th by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission, titled "Notice on Carrying out Hydrogen Energy Comprehensive Application Pilot Work." The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:
The policy framework has undergone a comprehensive upgrade, aiming for large-scale cost reduction and establishing a closed-loop ecosystem for integrated hydrogen applications. This notice represents a continuation of national-level incentive policies for China's hydrogen industry, achieving an all-dimensional upgrade compared to the previous fuel cell vehicle demonstration city cluster policy. Centered on "application traction and scenario drive," the notice constructs a full ecological application system described as "1 universal fuel cell scenario + N industrial application scenarios + X innovative application scenarios." Building on the foundation of nearly 40,000 cumulative fuel cell vehicle sales, 574 hydrogen refueling stations (with a daily capacity exceeding 360 tons), and approximately 250,000 tons of green hydrogen production capacity by the end of 2025, the notice sets clear quantitative targets for 2030: the average end-user price of hydrogen should fall below 25 RMB/kg, with target regions striving for 15 RMB/kg; the national fleet of fuel cell vehicles should double from the 2025 level, aiming for 100,000 units. The notice maintains the central government's "reward instead of subsidy" standard, planning to select five city clusters. The maximum central government reward for a single cluster during the four-year pilot period is 1.6 billion RMB, with total central fiscal subsidies not exceeding 8 billion RMB. Fund disbursement will follow an "advance allocation, subsequent settlement" model. The policy's core focus has shifted from addressing technological gaps in the supply chain to achieving cost reduction through large-scale application, aiming to accelerate the realization of a closed-loop ecosystem for integrated hydrogen use.
Vehicle-related rules have been iteratively optimized, with pilot goals focusing on scenario integration and industrial chain quality improvement and cost reduction. As the common foundational scenario in both policy phases, the vehicle segment continues the previous policy's focus on medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, while achieving comprehensive optimization in application thresholds, assessment systems, and technical requirements. The notice explicitly prioritizes the construction of hydrogen highways and corridors, focusing on promoting large-scale application in commercial vehicles like heavy-duty transport and cold chain logistics. For city clusters where fuel cell vehicles are the primary application scenario, the requirements are原则上 (in principle) to promote over 8,000 fuel cell vehicles and commission more than 30 new hydrogen refueling stations (compared to 1,000 vehicles and 15 stations in the previous round), build at least one hydrogen highway or corridor, achieve large-scale application of key components and industrialize items like Type IV hydrogen storage tanks and valve inlets, while also encouraging policies to facilitate inter-city travel for fuel cell vehicles. The core objectives are to achieve cross-regional scenario integration, sustained large-scale cost reduction, and breakthroughs in supply chain localization.
Application scenarios have been significantly expanded, with green ammonia and methanol emerging as core highlights. This notice marks the first time industrial hydrogen applications have been included in the central government's "reward instead of subsidy" scope. Green ammonia and methanol are the core expansion scenarios, concurrently covering industrial scenarios like hydrogen-based chemical feedstock substitution, hydrogen metallurgy, and hydrogen blending for combustion, as well as innovative scenarios like rail transit, shipping, and new energy storage. It also introduces a reward points requirement for city clusters to achieve renewable energy-based hydrogen production scale of no less than 50,000 tons annually. Furthermore, the notice specifies that for city clusters where industrial applications are the primary focus, these scenarios should account for no less than 75% of applications. This aims to promote synergistic cost reduction across transportation and industrial sectors, accelerating the establishment of a commercial closed-loop for the entire hydrogen industry chain.
Risk analysis includes potential delays in project construction timelines, slower-than-expected project approvals due to policy changes, lower-than-anticipated carbon prices resulting from fluctuations in EU carbon border tax policies, and slower progress than expected in the application of green fuels for international shipping.