Title

Earning Preview: Riot Platforms Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 19.44%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Riot Platforms will report its quarterly results on March 2, 2026 Post Market, with investors focused on revenue normalization after a strong prior quarter, forecasted EPS pressure, and how management frames the outlook for mining operations, power strategy, and emerging digital infrastructure initiatives.

Market Forecast

Consensus-style forecasts point to total revenue of $161.30 million for the to‑be‑reported quarter, up 19.44% year over year, alongside an estimated adjusted EPS of -$0.29, implying a 255.47% year-over-year decline and a swing to a modest loss; current forecasts do not include explicit gross margin or net margin guidance. Forecast EBIT is -$62.85 million, a year-over-year contraction of 200.19%, indicating near-term operating headwinds even as top-line growth remains positive on a year-over-year basis.

The company’s main business is cryptocurrency mining, which is expected to remain the core revenue driver given its scale and contribution in the prior quarter; near-term outlook hinges on realized production volumes, curtailment credits, and the effective conversion of hash rate into revenue. The most promising adjacent line, Engineering, remains smaller by revenue but represents a potential lever for multi-quarter growth as it supports data center build-outs; last quarter, Engineering contributed $19.10 million, and while segment-level year-over-year data was not disclosed, management emphasis on infrastructure capabilities positions this business as a potential bridge into higher-value digital infrastructure work.

Last Quarter Review

Riot Platforms delivered revenue of $180.23 million (+112.53% YoY), a gross profit margin of 39.26%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $104.00 million, a net profit margin of 57.97%, and adjusted EPS of $0.26 (+148.15% YoY), outpacing earlier revenue and EPS expectations while demonstrating robust profitability on a consolidated basis. A notable dynamic was the quarter-on-quarter contraction in net profit, which declined by 52.39%, signaling that while year-over-year comparisons were strong, sequential performance moderated from the prior period’s peak levels. The core mining business contributed $160.79 million, or 89.22% of revenue, with the Engineering segment adding $19.10 million and other items $0.34 million; overall revenue growth of 112.53% year-over-year underscores the scale benefit concentrated in mining during the period.

A further highlight was execution against operating leverage targets: adjusted EPS significantly beat the prior internal and external bars ($0.26 vs. a prior estimate of $0.07), and EBIT printed at $80.05 million versus a $94.20 million estimate, signaling some incremental operating expense and cost-of-power variability even as revenue beat. The consolidated revenue beat ($180.23 million vs. $172.60 million estimated) was powered by the mining segment scale, while the smaller Engineering contribution offered diversification; the company entered the current quarter with momentum but also evidence of higher sequential volatility typical of production and power market dynamics.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Mining Operations

The core mining business remains the centerpiece of the quarter, and the bridge from last quarter’s 89.22% revenue contribution makes it the most influential driver of reported results. Forecast revenue of $161.30 million (+19.44% YoY) signals a normalization from last quarter’s higher base as sequential production, realized pricing, and power-related credits reset; the implied swing in adjusted EPS to -$0.29 and forecast EBIT of -$62.85 million (-200.19% YoY) suggests a more challenging mix of unit economics this period. Management’s power strategy and operating cadence are likely to be front and center: curtailment decisions, grid-balancing participation, and the monetization of power credits can lift margins when BTC network dynamics make marginal blocks less attractive, but a quarter with fewer curtailment opportunities can conversely reduce “other income” offsets and put more weight on pure mining margin.

A key consideration is the translation of installed and energized hash rate into consistent top-line capture. Last quarter’s robust net margin (57.97%) aligned with higher operating efficiency and favorable realized conditions; this quarter’s forecast points to pressure on profitability even as revenue remains positive year over year, which could reflect a combination of more normalized power-market benefits and timing effects in production realization. Investors will look for clarity on how unit costs evolve through the quarter, the mix between self-mined BTC conversion and retained holdings, and whether management leans more on operational flexibility—power sales, curtailment income, maintenance timing—to defend cash margins in a more variable production and price environment.

Another dimension is treasury and liquidity management. In January 2026, the company disclosed that it sold 1,818 BTC in December, generating approximately $161.60 million in proceeds and reducing its holdings from 19,368 BTC to 18,005 BTC. This action supports liquidity and capex flexibility, and it may affect reported income items via realized gains and working capital positioning. The interplay between selling activity, retained BTC, and power market revenue will likely color both GAAP and adjusted profitability, as well as guidance tones for the coming quarters.

Engineering and Digital Infrastructure Expansion

Engineering contributed $19.10 million last quarter and stands out as the most promising adjacent business because it builds capabilities and customer relationships that can extend into higher-value digital infrastructure services. Recent public commentary indicated that an activist investor urged Riot Platforms to accelerate a transition into AI-focused data center infrastructure, reflecting a broader appetite for high-density power, cooling, and compute provisioning; while the company has not publicly detailed a new financial framework for such expansion, Engineering provides a natural operational base for this direction. The near-term revenue base remains modest relative to mining, but the potential to scale higher-margin integration and build-out services could diversify earnings cycles and smooth profitability across mining seasons.

Execution risk and capital intensity are important considerations. Engineering revenue can be lumpy given project timing, and margin structure may be sensitive to supply-chain pricing, labor, and power interconnect schedules. However, pairing internal engineering with owned or controlled power access and real estate positions the business to capture incremental economics per megawatt deployed, particularly if the company progresses toward GPU- or ASIC-dense facilities that require specialized design and operations. For the current quarter, investors will watch for commentary on order backlog, project pipeline, and whether management initiates or enlarges dedicated programs for AI-oriented capacity that can be brought online in phases. Quantitative disclosures—if provided—on contracted megawatts, committed capital, and expected annualized revenue per megawatt would help anchor valuation frameworks for this adjacent line.

From a financial-modeling perspective, Engineering’s contribution is less likely to move consolidated revenue materially this quarter, but qualitative signals can influence the multiple the market assigns to future earnings streams. If management articulates a multi-year build path that complements mining while not overextending capital at current cost curves, the segment’s medium-term earnings power could expand. This backdrop helps explain why some institutions maintain constructive ratings heading into the print, even as near-term EPS expectations for the quarter reflect pressure.

Quarter-Specific Stock Drivers

Three factors appear most consequential for the stock this quarter: realized revenue from mining vs. power-market monetization, the trajectory of adjusted profitability, and management’s signals on capital allocation across mining and digital infrastructure. The revenue forecast of $161.30 million (+19.44% YoY) implies that top-line momentum remains intact year over year, but the estimated adjusted EPS of -$0.29 and forecast EBIT loss of $62.85 million indicate that margin carry-over from last quarter may not recur to the same degree. This gap is likely attributable to a different mix of production, realized price, network conditions, and lower curtailment or power credit gains; investors will scrutinize whether this is a one-quarter variance or indicative of a more persistent profitability profile as the company balances mining cadence with power sales.

Management’s commentary on the balance sheet and liquidity is another focal point. The disclosed December BTC sales (communicated in January 2026) show the company’s willingness to monetize holdings to fund operations and growth, which helps protect cash while preserving optionality for capex. The market will evaluate whether realized gains from these sales offset operating headwinds sufficiently to stabilize adjusted metrics, and how retained holdings may be used going forward. Capital allocation choices—between mining fleet upgrades, substation and transmission investments, and potential AI-compatible data center build-outs—will shape the narrative for medium-term returns and could affect the valuation multiple even if near-term earnings are under pressure.

Finally, qualitative signals on Engineering and broader digital infrastructure strategy can serve as catalysts. If management demonstrates tangible steps—such as land, power procurement, or modular build schedules—that enhance visibility into non-mining revenue expansion, the stock could respond positively, especially given the relatively small base of Engineering revenue last quarter. Conversely, if such plans remain preliminary without near-term revenue conversion, investors may wait for more concrete milestones. In sum, the stock’s immediate reaction is likely to hinge on whether management can offset forecast margin pressure with a credible, capital-disciplined playbook for diversified digital infrastructure earnings while maintaining operational flexibility in mining.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate in the current period. In mid-February 2026, BTIG reiterated a Buy rating on Riot Platforms and set a $28.00 price target, signaling institutional confidence ahead of the March 2, 2026 report despite consensus estimates calling for an adjusted loss. With only one qualifying, recent institutional call within the specified period and no recent bearish ratings captured, the ratio stands at 100% bullish.

This constructive stance appears to reflect confidence in the company’s ability to sustain year-over-year revenue growth (+19.44% forecast) while managing toward longer-term value creation through infrastructure capabilities and capital allocation discipline. The prior quarter’s strong year-over-year metrics—revenue up 112.53%, adjusted EPS up 148.15%—provide evidence that the operating model can deliver scale benefits when production and power-market conditions align; the challenge this quarter is margin normalization, which the bullish view sees as transitory within a broader multi-quarter growth path. Institutional optimism also aligns with emerging signals that the company is evaluating or being encouraged to accelerate a digital infrastructure roadmap that could diversify earnings beyond mining, with the Engineering segment providing a foundational capability.

Analysts embracing the bullish case will likely watch for: 1) clarity on the drivers behind the forecast EBIT and EPS pressure and whether they are transient; 2) updates to the power strategy and curtailment economics that can buffer margins; and 3) tangible milestones for infrastructure expansion that could improve earnings durability across cycles. If management articulates a credible plan that mitigates near-term volatility with disciplined growth initiatives, the bullish price objective framework—exemplified by the $28.00 target—can remain intact even if this quarter’s adjusted profitability is weaker than the prior period. For investors, the key is whether guidance and commentary reinforce a path to re-accelerating adjusted profitability while keeping capex within return thresholds supported by a diversified revenue base.