Abstract

CareDx will report quarterly results on February 24, 2026, Post Market; this preview summarizes market expectations for revenue, margins and adjusted EPS, reviews the prior quarter, and highlights business dynamics that may shape investor reaction.

Market Forecast

Consensus modeling for the current quarter points to total revenue of $103.25 million, implying year-over-year growth of 22.75%, with EBIT forecast at $8.19 million and adjusted EPS estimated at $0.24; year-over-year growth is modeled at 86.92% for EBIT and 86.00% for adjusted EPS. Management has not formally guided gross profit margin or net margin for the quarter, but modeling implies stability to mild expansion from the prior quarter’s reported gross margin and net margin; the adjusted EPS forecast suggests operating leverage as volumes improve.

CareDx’s core revenue is concentrated in testing services, supplemented by collaboration/licensing and product revenue. Testing remains the primary revenue engine with improving utilization trends and assay adoption, while collaboration and product sales provide incremental growth and diversification.

The most promising segment remains testing, modeled to deliver the majority of revenue; in the prior quarter this category contributed approximately $72.17 million of revenue, and current forecasts imply continued double‑digit YoY expansion broadly in line with the company-level revenue growth trajectory.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, CareDx reported total revenue of $100.06 million (up 20.72% YoY), a gross profit margin of 69.36%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $1.68 million with a net profit margin of 1.67%, and adjusted EPS of $0.28 (up 100.00% YoY).

Operating performance benefited from a solid rebound in profitability as operating expenses were managed relative to revenue growth, resulting in positive EBIT and expansion in adjusted earnings. By business mix, testing delivered roughly $72.17 million, collaboration and licensing contributed $15.41 million, and products added $12.48 million; testing remained the main growth driver consistent with the company’s strategic focus on transplant testing and associated diagnostics.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Testing services: volume trajectory and reimbursement shape the revenue and EPS path

Testing is the core of CareDx’s model and remains the biggest swing factor for both top line and profitability. The current-quarter revenue estimate of $103.25 million, up 22.75% year over year, implies sustained double‑digit growth in testing volumes and stable average selling prices. Given last quarter’s gross margin of 69.36%, incremental volume should allow fixed-cost absorption to improve, supporting the forecast 86.00% YoY growth in adjusted EPS to $0.24 and EBIT of $8.19 million. The primary near‑term sensitivities are reimbursement stability for transplant diagnostics, payer mix shifts, and the cadence of ordering from transplant centers. The recent return to positive GAAP profitability signals that price and volume dynamics have normalized versus the tougher comparables of prior periods, and the modeled EPS progression indicates further operating leverage if revenue executes at or above plan.

Collaboration/licensing and products: complementary revenue streams with manageable margin effects

While testing dominates, collaboration and licensing, alongside product revenue, provide diversification that can smooth quarter‑to‑quarter volatility. Last quarter, collaboration/licensing posted $15.41 million and product revenue $12.48 million, together accounting for over a quarter of total revenue. These streams typically carry different margin profiles, but their scale relative to testing means overall gross margin will be mainly driven by testing throughput and mix. Should collaboration milestones or product shipments skew higher this quarter, revenue could modestly outpace consensus without materially altering blended margins. Conversely, softer collaboration receipts would be partly offset by testing resilience, given recurring clinical demand patterns. The modeled EBIT growth of 86.92% YoY suggests that even moderate upside in these categories could translate into disproportionate bottom‑line benefit if operating expenses remain disciplined.

Stock‑price drivers: revenue beat/meet risk, margin progression, and EPS conversion

Investor reaction will likely hinge on three levers: revenue versus the $103.25 million consensus, gross margin progression from the last quarter’s 69.36%, and conversion to adjusted EPS. A revenue print near or above the $103.25 million estimate, combined with stable-to-better gross margin, would underscore the return of operating leverage, supporting the consensus $0.24 adjusted EPS. Net profit margin was 1.67% last quarter, and while GAAP margins can remain choppy due to non‑cash and non‑recurring items, an uptick in operating margin would reinforce confidence in sustainable profitability. Any signs of reimbursement headwinds or slower testing adoption could compress the revenue growth trajectory and temper EBIT and EPS, while upside from stronger testing volumes or collaboration receipts could magnify EPS due to high gross margin on incremental tests and a largely fixed R&D and G&A base in the near term.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent commentary, the balance of views skews constructive on CareDx’s near‑term setup, with the majority expecting a revenue line close to or above the $103.25 million consensus, improving profitability, and continued operating discipline. Analysts highlighting the $0.24 adjusted EPS estimate and the $8.19 million EBIT forecast point to favorable test volume trends and a supportive reimbursement environment as catalysts for margin stabilization. The bullish camp emphasizes that last quarter’s return to GAAP profitability and a 20.72% YoY revenue increase set a firmer base for compounding gains, and that double‑digit revenue growth alongside high‑60s gross margin should translate into meaningful EPS leverage if opex remains in check.

In these positive takes, a recurring theme is that testing utilization is normalizing in transplant centers, while collaboration/licensing and product contributions add incremental upside optionality without requiring material investment. The view also notes that volatility in GAAP earnings should not overshadow the trajectory in adjusted metrics, where consensus builds in 86.00% YoY growth in EPS to $0.24. Overall, the majority perspective anticipates that CareDx can deliver progress on both growth and profitability this quarter, with the revenue/EPS setup favoring a constructive reaction if execution aligns with the current forecast.