Abstract

Archrock will release its quarterly results on February 25, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, profitability and EPS alongside segment dynamics and market sentiment observed since January 2026.

Market Forecast

Based on current quarter forecasts, Archrock is projected to deliver revenue of $378.86 million, implying a 14.59% year-over-year increase, with estimated EBIT of $139.43 million, reflecting 24.17% year-over-year growth, and estimated adjusted EPS of $0.41, up 34.06% year over year. Margin forecasts have not been formally indicated in the estimates we compiled; the last reported quarter posted a gross profit margin of 66.05% and a net profit margin of 18.63%, which provide a recent baseline for investors evaluating profitability trajectory.

The company’s main business remains anchored by Contract Operations, which accounted for $326.27 million of revenue in the prior quarter, positioning the segment to continue driving top-line performance this quarter given the scale and stability of the existing revenue base. The most promising incremental growth vector is Aftermarket Services; it generated $56.16 million last quarter and should benefit from the expanding installed base and higher service intensity, while consolidated year-over-year revenue growth of 30.90% in the prior quarter underscores positive demand momentum even though segment-specific year-over-year figures were not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Archrock reported revenue of $382.43 million, up 30.90% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 66.05%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $71.25 million for a net profit margin of 18.63%, and adjusted EPS of $0.40, which increased 81.82% year over year. A notable financial highlight was EBIT of $140.52 million, which climbed 47.11% year over year; adjusted EPS edged past the prior consensus estimate of $0.397, reflecting a modest positive variance. The main business mix featured $326.27 million from Contract Operations (85.31% of revenue) and $56.16 million from Aftermarket Services (14.69%), with the combined mix supporting the elevated gross margin and contributing to the 30.90% year-over-year growth in total revenue.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Contract Operations: what to monitor for revenue, utilization and margins

Contract Operations is the company’s largest revenue driver and the core determinant of quarterly earnings variance. The last quarter’s $326.27 million contribution, representing 85.31% of total revenue, sets a high base, and the sequential increase in GAAP net profit of 12.34% suggests operating leverage from higher utilization and pricing flow-through. For this quarter, the consensus revenue estimate implies a softer top line than last quarter but still healthy year-over-year expansion, which typically indicates continued solid activity levels and resiliency in day-rate pricing within existing contracts. On the margin side, the 66.05% gross margin in the last period provides a reference point; investors will watch cost pass-through dynamics and operating expense efficiency to gauge whether gross margin can remain in a similar band as revenue normalizes quarter to quarter. Given that segment revenue dominates mix, small changes in utilization or pricing carry outsized implications for adjusted EPS, which is forecast to rise 34.06% year over year to approximately $0.41 even as revenue is modeled slightly below the prior quarter, implying firm margins and cost discipline as potential supports.

Aftermarket Services: where incremental growth and operating leverage could emerge

Aftermarket Services delivered $56.16 million in the prior quarter and accounts for 14.69% of revenue. While smaller in absolute terms, the segment can provide incremental growth and smoothing benefits through the cycle because service intensity increases with a larger installed base, and more field activity often translates to higher parts and maintenance billings. Without formal segment-level guidance, the clearest signal is the consolidated revenue trajectory: a 30.90% year-over-year increase in the last reported quarter and a 14.59% year-over-year increase forecast for the current quarter. That cadence suggests sustained demand for service work and consumables tied to fleet activity, which can support margins, particularly if parts and labor pricing stays aligned with cost inflation. The segment’s contribution also tends to help working capital efficiency and cash generation when activity is steady, giving management more flexibility for capital allocation decisions that feed back into long-term growth.

Capital allocation, funding and profitability sensitivity this quarter

Two corporate actions since January 2026 shape the near-term financial profile. The company priced $800.00 million of 6.00% senior notes due 2034 and subsequently closed the offering, earmarking proceeds to repay borrowings and support ongoing needs. This financing enhances balance sheet flexibility and potentially reduces exposure to variable-rate debt, though it also introduces a fixed coupon that investors will factor into net interest expense and normalized free cash flow modeling for the coming quarters. Separately, the Board approved an increased quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share, a step that indicates confidence in durable cash flow and a commitment to shareholder returns. From a profitability standpoint, the EBIT estimate of $139.43 million implies a 24.17% year-over-year increase even on slightly lower sequential revenue versus last quarter, signaling expected resilience in cost structure and mix. The focus for this print will be whether gross margin can remain near the high 60% range observed last quarter and whether net margin can be maintained around the high-teens level given the higher fixed coupon expense from the newly issued notes. Execution on cost containment, efficient redeployment of capital toward revenue-generating assets, and consistent service attach rates are likely to be the key determinants of whether the EPS estimate of roughly $0.41 is met or exceeded.

Revenue quality, sequential dynamics and what could sway the share price

Revenue quality will be assessed not just on headline growth but also on visibility and durability. The previous quarter’s gross margin of 66.05% and net margin of 18.63% point to a business mix that favors contracted, high-contribution revenue streams. Any updates on contract terms, pricing escalators, or duration would inform how durable these margins might be into the next few quarters. Sequentially, while the forecast revenue of $378.86 million is modestly below last quarter’s $382.43 million, the projected uplift in EPS and EBIT year over year implies continued efficiency and potential scale effects. In the share price context, the most immediate swing factors will likely be the company’s commentary on cost trends, the magnitude of any maintenance or growth capital spending implications from recent financing, and the trajectory of adjusted EPS relative to the $0.41 estimate.

EBIT growth, EPS trajectory and reinvestment priorities

The company’s EBIT performance is a central pillar of the earnings narrative. The prior quarter’s $140.52 million EBIT grew 47.11% year over year and sets a high watermark for operational performance; the current-quarter forecast of $139.43 million points to sustained strength on a year-over-year basis. With adjusted EPS expected to rise 34.06% year over year to about $0.41, investors will parse whether margin expansion or operating leverage is the larger driver, and how that stacks up against any incremental interest expense from the new notes. Reinvestment priorities also matter: the recent balance sheet actions allow for capital deployment that can sustain revenue quality and service capabilities, which in turn support margins and longer-term earnings power. Any indications that the company is reallocating resources to higher-return opportunities could be rewarded by the market if accompanied by continued discipline in operating expenses.

Analyst Opinions

Within the specified window since January 2026, the published sell-side previews and explicit rating changes for Archrock have been limited, but market-facing signals tilt positive, leading to a predominantly bullish stance in our tally based on institutional actions and forward-looking indicators. The increased quarterly cash dividend to $0.22 per share and the successful placement and closing of $800.00 million in 6.00% senior notes due 2034 are generally interpreted by institutional investors as supportive of capital return visibility and funding certainty, respectively, which together underpin a constructive near-term earnings outlook. Framed against consensus projections that call for revenue of $378.86 million (+14.59% year over year), EBIT of $139.43 million (+24.17% year over year), and adjusted EPS of roughly $0.41 (+34.06% year over year), the prevailing view anticipates that profitability can remain robust even as sequential revenue moderates slightly, supported by mix and cost controls.

The bullish interpretation emphasizes three points. First, the last quarter’s high gross margin of 66.05% and net margin of 18.63% reflect a favorable revenue mix and operational discipline; if similar dynamics persist, the company could meet or exceed the EPS forecast. Second, the capital markets activity—both the notes offering and the dividend increase—signals confidence in cash flows and enhances the predictability of the equity story, which is typically welcomed by income-oriented and total-return mandates. Third, sequential net profit growth of 12.34% last quarter, alongside year-over-year gains in revenue, EBIT, and EPS, provides a positive momentum backdrop heading into the current report. In light of these factors, the majority view expects the company to deliver results within, or modestly above, the consensus ranges while maintaining a conservative posture on costs and a balanced approach to capital allocation. Investors will still pay close attention to any commentary that updates margin sustainability and the cadence of spending relative to the recent financing, as these will shape forward estimates and valuation following the print.