GLMS SEC has released a research report stating that heavy-duty truck domestic demand in 2025 is expected to achieve high growth driven by the "vehicle replacement" policy. In 2026, domestic demand is projected to experience a steady recovery, supported by replacement needs for National IV and National V standard vehicles, while exports to non-Russian regions continue their rapid growth and new energy adoption accelerates. The report favors industry leaders with comprehensive advantages in overseas expansion, new energy, and supply chain integration.

For the bus segment, 2025 is characterized by a bottoming-out of domestic demand and export-led growth. In 2026, domestic demand is expected to gradually recover with support from public bus renewal policies, while the penetration of new energy buses overseas accelerates. The report is optimistic about leading bus manufacturers with strong export profitability and superior products and channels.

Key viewpoints from GLMS SEC are as follows:

**Heavy-Duty Trucks 2025 Review: Policy-Driven Domestic Recovery, Sustained Export Growth, and Structural Optimization.** In terms of total volume, wholesale sales of heavy-duty trucks in 2025 reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. Structurally, domestic sales accounted for 799,000 units, up 32.7% year-on-year. Sales in China recovered due to the "vehicle replacement" policy stimulating domestic demand, showing steady recovery despite a high base from the previous year. Regarding exports, China's heavy-duty truck exports saw strong growth, reaching 341,000 units in 2025, a 17.4% increase year-on-year, with Southeast Asia and the Middle East emerging as core growth drivers.

**Heavy-Duty Trucks 2026 Outlook: Accelerated Expansion of New Energy Models, Asian and African Nations as Key Export Drivers.** In terms of total volume, the heavy-duty truck industry has exited a three-year downturn and is in a new upward cycle. The bank believes the "vehicle replacement" policy is likely to be extended, with replacement demand expected to maintain the baseline for domestic sales. On the export front, while shipments to Russia have cooled, demand from non-Russian regions remains strong, with the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa becoming core contributors to sales growth. Structurally, the share of diesel heavy-duty trucks is declining significantly, natural gas-powered trucks are expected to maintain stable growth, and new energy heavy-duty trucks are projected to perform strongly and lead sales growth.

**Buses 2025 Review: Steady Domestic Recovery, High Export Growth Driving New Cycle.** In terms of total volume, the bus industry has entered a new cycle of "domestic demand bottoming out plus high export growth." Wholesale sales of large and medium-sized buses in 2025 were 122,000 units, up 5.1% year-on-year. Domestic sales of large and medium-sized buses were 65,000 units, down 10.6% year-on-year, while export sales reached 59,000 units, surging 34.6% year-on-year. Structurally, the seated bus market faced short-term pressure but has bottomed out, while the public bus market performed strongly driven by the "vehicle replacement" policy. Exports performed excellently, with 15,000 new energy large and medium-sized buses exported in 2025, up 33.7% year-on-year, and 44,000 fuel-powered buses exported, an increase of 34.9% year-on-year.

**Buses 2026 Outlook: Continued Domestic Demand Growth, Accelerated Overseas Market Penetration.** In terms of total volume, domestic bus demand is expected to continue its steady rise. Wholesale sales in the large and medium-sized bus sector are forecast to reach 146,000 units in 2026, up 20.0% year-on-year, with export sales projected at 78,000 units, a 32.0% increase year-on-year. Structurally, the seated bus market is expected to gradually recover alongside a rebound in tourism, while the public bus segment will be driven by the "vehicle replacement" policy. On the export front, Europe and Latin America are becoming core growth markets, and the trend of accelerated overseas penetration for new energy large and medium-sized buses is clear. The bank forecasts exports of new energy large and medium-sized buses to reach 20,000 units in 2026, a 34.0% increase year-on-year.

Risk warnings include potential reductions in commercial vehicle policy subsidies; global commercial vehicle demand falling short of expectations; impact of overseas policies on export sales and profits; and unexpected fluctuations in raw material prices.