On March 26, amidst recent sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, the traditional safe-haven logic appears to have encountered technical challenges. GTC Zehui Capital asserts that the decline in gold prices during periods of conflict does not signify the end of its safe-haven attributes but is rather a product of profound changes in the structure of market participants. The extreme pre-conflict surge in gold prices attracted a massive influx of retail traders, causing gold trading behavior to exhibit distinct characteristics of a "risk asset." This trend towards retail participation has led gold prices to display significantly different volatility patterns when facing macroeconomic shocks compared to the past.

From a micro-level perspective of market dynamics, multiple intertwined factors are driving this round of adjustment. GTC Zehui Capital indicates that, on one hand, there is a need to lock in substantial profits accumulated since late 2025, prompting investors to reduce holdings and exit during times of heightened uncertainty. On the other hand, severe volatility in global financial markets has triggered large-scale margin call pressures. According to relevant statistics, since the outbreak of regional conflicts, gold, silver, and platinum have recorded declines of 15%, 25%, and 20% respectively, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 index, which fell by only 5%. This divergence reflects that institutions, facing liquidity crises, are compelled to liquidate profitable positions like gold to raise funds, thereby triggering an unprecedented "large-scale position unwinding."

Despite the disappointing short-term market performance, the core logic supporting gold's long-term bull market remains intact. GTC Zehui Capital believes that although volatility from retail holdings and institutional liquidity needs have led to a pullback in premiums, reckless fiscal expansion policies continue globally. As the risks associated with debt monetization accumulate, investor demand for hedging against fiat currency depreciation will be long-term and inflexible. GTC Zehui Capital states that the resilience currently shown by gold prices near $4,530 suggests the market is in a transitional phase, moving from short-term sentiment-driven selling towards a return to fundamental value. Gold's strategic position as a global safe-haven asset remains unshakable.