JIAXIN INTL RES (03858), armed with world-class tungsten resources, has launched a fresh aggressive advance towards a HK$100 billion market capitalization target, overcoming share unlock pressures and decisively overpowering short sellers. Following a sharp 31.25% surge over just four trading sessions, the stock staged another powerful rally on March 2, soaring to a historic intraday peak of HK$133.1, marking a maximum single-day gain of 36%. Crucially, trading volume exploded to a massive HK$2.101 billion, a 3.6-fold increase from the previous day's HK$579 million, fully igniting market bullish sentiment. At HK$133, the share price has now skyrocketed more than tenfold from its IPO price of HK$10.92, officially crowning it a "ten-bagger" stock. However, this may merely signal a new beginning. The massive volume coupled with the strong price breakout not only demonstrates strong market confidence in JIAXIN INTL RES's future performance but also indicates a profound shift in its investment thesis: as persistently stronger-than-expected tungsten prices powerfully converge with the company's own clear capacity expansion, its growth narrative is accelerating from "resource potential" to "earnings delivery." This clear trajectory is poised to guide JIAXIN INTL RES forcefully towards the gates of the HK$100 billion market cap club.

Analyzing the stock's performance since its IPO reveals a clear progression through several distinct phases. The first phase was its market debut. As a rare pure-play tungsten stock on the Hong Kong market, JIAXIN INTL RES attracted strong investor interest from its listing on August 28, 2025, surging 177.84% on its first day, driven by expectations of rising tungsten prices and its world-class tungsten assets. Subsequently, the stock entered a second phase of "consolidation and turnover." For approximately the next three months, the price moved in a wide sideways pattern. This process effectively exchanged and stabilized the floating supply of shares, laying a solid foundation for the subsequent uptrend.

The real breakout occurred in the third phase. Starting from late November 2025, as tungsten prices began a strong, accelerating upward trend, JIAXIN INTL RES's stock price embarked on its "primary upward wave." This robust trend continued until late January 2026, fueled by persistently exceeding tungsten price expectations, resulting in a cumulative gain of over 180% within just two months, fully showcasing its high leverage to rising tungsten prices. From late January, the stock entered a fourth phase: high-level volatility and pressure testing. During this period, despite continued strong gains in tungsten prices, market divergence intensified significantly, with short-selling forces strengthening and leading to a corrective pullback. This was underpinned by short-sellers acting on a dual rationale: firstly, technical profit-taking pressure—the stock's surge of over 180% in two months created substantial paper profits, suggesting a need for technical correction and share consolidation; secondly, anticipation of selling pressure from the unlock of cornerstone investor shares on February 28, raising concerns about early profit-taking. A sharp decline on February 13 near previous highs further fueled fears of a "double top" pattern, encouraging short sellers. Data showed short interest reached 1.1464 million shares by February 20, worth HK$90.1644 million, a near tripling from the prior week, with an average shorting cost of HK$78.65. Despite the rapid expansion of short positions, the maximum decline during this phase was only 25.68%, highlighting the stock's resilience supported by strong fundamentals. Subsequently, from February 24, the price rebounded from lows and jumped 15.12% on February 27, approaching previous highs again. Short-selling activity remained active that day, with 1.174 million shares sold short, amounting to HK$108 million, representing 18.82% of turnover, indicating persistent short resistance.

This fourth phase of high volatility essentially represented a battle between bulls and bears and a stress test for the stock following its rapid ascent, amid expectations of increased share supply. This stalemate was decisively broken on March 2 by a high-volume surge, propelling the stock into its fifth phase: platform breakout and resumption of the primary uptrend. On March 2, JIAXIN INTL RES surged up to 36% intraday; although it pared some gains by the close, it finished at HK$120.5, up 23.15%, strongly breaking above the previous consolidation range, displaying classic bullish technical characteristics. Key was the massive expansion in turnover to HK$2.101 billion, a roughly 3.6-fold increase from the previous day's HK$571 million. Beyond ignited bullish sentiment, a significant factor was substantial pre-market block trades at HK$91, where 4 million shares were absorbed. This clearly signaled that investors were not deterred by the share unlock but viewed it as an opportunity to accelerate positioning. Thus, the period of high volatility triggered by unlock expectations concluded with a decisive victory for the bulls and a breakout to new highs. Notably, the short interest value of HK$90.1644 million recorded on February 20 would, if not covered, imply a loss of 53.21% for those short positions by March 2. Furthermore, additional short positions built up since February 20 could now be forced to cover, potentially fueling a short squeeze and further boosting the stock price.

The core driver behind JIAXIN INTL RES's powerful breakout and new record high is the continued stronger-than-expected surge in tungsten prices. Since 2025, tungsten prices have been in a strong bull market, with key tungsten products gaining over 220% for the year, leading gains in minor metals and marking the largest annual increase in over a decade. Entering 2026, the rally not only continued but accelerated, breaking through key psychological levels and opening further upside. Monitoring data shows the tungsten market maintained strong upward momentum in early March. By March 2, the price for 65% black tungsten concentrate had risen to 830,000 yuan/ton, up 80.4% year-to-date; Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) reached 1.25 million yuan/ton, up 86.6%; tungsten powder prices also climbed to 1,990 yuan/kg. This implies key tungsten products have surged over 80% in just two months from already elevated 2025 levels, far exceeding even the most optimistic market forecasts.

This sharp price appreciation stems from a confluence of supply, demand, and strategic value factors. On supply, China's continued tightening of mining quotas and export controls locks in supply growth at the source; meanwhile, environmental constraints, resource depletion, and limited new capacity overseas have nearly eliminated global supply elasticity. On the demand side, traditional cemented carbide demand remains resilient, while tungsten wire penetration in photovoltaics jumped from around 20% in 2024 to over 60% in 2025, becoming the main growth engine; orders from defense, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing provide additional solid support. Analysis suggests that calculated by tungsten metal content, global primary tungsten production is expected to grow from 79,500 tonnes in 2023 to 89,900 tonnes in 2028, but demand is projected to rise from 96,200 tonnes to 110,000 tonnes, indicating a persistently tight supply-demand balance. More importantly, tungsten's strategic attributes are being significantly amplified in the current geopolitical climate. China classifies it as a strategic mineral and strengthens control, while Europe and the US push for supply chain "de-risking" and resource self-sufficiency. Geopolitical tensions add a safe-haven premium, moving its pricing beyond traditional commodity logic into the realm of strategic resources. This forms the deep-seated rationale allowing tungsten prices and related company valuations to consistently break historical frameworks.

With tungsten concentrate prices surpassing 830,000 yuan/ton without signs of weakness, market expectations are forming for a 2026 average price above 800,000 yuan/ton, potentially leading to a significant re-rating for JIAXIN INTL RES. Simple calculations can illustrate this. Regarding production, based on the company's capacity plans, its tungsten concentrate output is forecast at 4,843 tonnes for 2025, reaching 7,000 tonnes in 2026 with Phase I capacity fully utilized, and increasing to 11,000 tonnes in 2027 as Phase II partially commences. Consequently, actual tungsten concentrate production for 2025-2027 is projected at 4,843 tonnes, 9,612 tonnes, and 15,100 tonnes respectively, positioning JIAXIN INTL RES as a significant global tungsten supplier. Assuming unit costs decline yearly with improved capacity utilization and sorting system efficiency, the 2026 unit cost is estimated at 70,000 yuan/ton (market median), and 50,000 yuan/ton for 2027. Based on projections for 2025 "other variable costs" and scaling linearly with production growth, these costs for 2026 and 2027 are estimated at 764 million yuan and 1.2 billion yuan respectively. Under these assumptions, if the average tungsten concentrate price for 2026 and 2027 is 800,000 yuan/ton and 700,000 yuan/ton respectively, JIAXIN INTL RES's attributable net profit could potentially reach 6.253 billion yuan and 8.615 billion yuan for those years. According to this model, the 2026 net profit of 6.253 billion yuan would represent a 20x to 23x increase over the 2025 forecast range (HK$300-340 million), marking 2026 as the year of explosive earnings growth, with further increase to 8.615 billion yuan anticipated for 2027, demonstrating sustained growth.

Given the high certainty of this earnings explosion and the scarcity of pure-play tungsten stocks, applying a 2026 P/E multiple of 15x could project JIAXIN INTL RES's market capitalization into the HK$100 billion range, implying nearly double the potential upside from current levels. Notably, JIAXIN INTL RES is expected to be included in the Southbound Stock Connect from March 9, marking a new stage in its capital market development. Inclusion will significantly broaden its investor base, and participation from mainland capital is expected to enhance stock liquidity and trading activity. More importantly, southbound investors, who may have a deeper understanding of tungsten's strategic value, could drive a systematic re-rating of the company, accelerating the discovery of its intrinsic value. It should be noted that if the share price continues rising sharply pre-inclusion, a short-term technical correction post-inclusion due to "selling the news" is possible. However, over the long term, the liquidity premium and re-rating logic brought by Stock Connect inclusion remain significant positive factors supporting the share price.