Online freight rate updates show that Gemini Cooperation has set Maersk's Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for Week 11 at $1,230 per TEU and $1,960 per FEU, with Week 12 prices at $1,175 per TEU and $1,870 per FEU. Hapag-Lloyd (HPL) has quoted rates for the first half of March at $1,335 per TEU and $2,235 per FEU, while rates for the second half of March are set at $1,935 per TEU and $3,135 per FEU.

In the MSC and Premier Alliance group, MSC has announced rates for the first half of March at $1,580 per TEU and $2,640 per FEU. Ocean Network Express (ONE) has set rates for the first half of March at $1,420 per TEU and $2,235 per FEU, with second-half March rates at $1,750 per TEU and $2,735 per FEU. April rates are quoted at $1,753 per TEU and $2,741 per FEU. Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) has set its Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for the first half of March at $1,783 per TEU and $3,136 per FEU.

Within the Ocean Alliance, CMA CGM has announced Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for the first half of March at $1,459 per TEU and $2,493 per FEU, with second-half March rates at $1,959 per TEU and $3,493 per FEU. Evergreen Marine (EMC) has set first-half March rates at $1,665 per TEU and $2,530 per FEU. Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) has quoted rates for the first half of March ranging between $2,331 and $2,430 per FEU.

Geopolitical developments include initial reports of an explosion in the diplomatic zone of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with additional explosions heard near the U.S. Embassy.

On the supply side, as of February 28, 2026, a total of 27 container vessels have been delivered this year, adding 174,232 TEU of capacity. Among these, six vessels in the 12,000–16,999 TEU range were delivered, contributing 86,000 TEU, while one vessel over 17,000 TEU was delivered, adding 17,148 TEU. Looking ahead, 679,000 TEU (46 vessels) in the 12,000–16,999 TEU category are expected to be delivered during the remainder of 2026, followed by 944,600 TEU (64 vessels) in 2027, 1.224 million TEU (84 vessels) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 vessels) in 2029.

For vessels over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 vessels) are scheduled for delivery in the remaining months of 2026, with 862,800 TEU (40 vessels) in 2027, 1.603 million TEU (80 vessels) in 2028, and 1.636 million TEU (81 vessels) in 2029. Overall, delivery pressure for ultra-large vessels in 2026 is relatively moderate, while annual deliveries for vessels over 17,000 TEU are expected to exceed 40 ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029. Only four vessels over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026.

In terms of dynamic supply, the average weekly capacity on the China–Europe base port route for March is 268,600 TEU, with weekly capacities for Weeks 10 to 14 at 149,100 TEU, 309,200 TEU, 289,500 TEU, 262,400 TEU, and 333,000 TEU, respectively. For April, the average weekly capacity is 287,900 TEU, with weekly capacities for Weeks 15 to 18 at 299,300 TEU, 314,500 TEU, 299,400 TEU, and 238,500 TEU, respectively. A total of 11 blank sailings are scheduled for March, including four by the Ocean Alliance, one by the Gemini Cooperation, and six by the MSC/Premier Alliance. Three additional blank sailings are tentatively planned for April.

With the EC2604 contract approaching expiration, market participants are closely monitoring any changes in carrier pricing behavior. In typical years, carriers issue general rate increases (GRIs) in March and April to stabilize prices. Recently, MSC announced a new GRI for the first week of the second half of March, raising rates to $4,000 per FEU, up from the $3,000 per FEU increase for the first half of March. On March 2, MSC also introduced a temporary rate hike for March 10–14. Meanwhile, Yang Ming Marine Transport (YML) reduced its rates for March 9 and March 15 sailings to $1,800 per FEU, leading to fragmented pricing in the second week of March. Attention is now focused on Maersk’s rates for the first week of the second half of March, which are expected to provide strong guidance for actual rate implementation in late March. Typically, about one and a half months before contract expiration, the settlement price for the front-month contract becomes clearer, and volatility tends to decline. Given the proximity of the EC2604 contract to expiration, investors are advised to track spot market developments closely and adjust positions flexibly, taking into account risk-reward ratios. Maersk’s Week 11 rate of $1,800 per FEU translates to approximately 1,260 index points.

For contracts expiring in the peak season months of June, July, and August, expectations remain strong and are difficult to disprove in the short term. Previous analyses have highlighted the potential for elevated freight rates in the June and July contracts this year, supported by three key factors. First, the likelihood of the Suez Canal reopening in the first half of the year remains low, particularly after recent events in Iran and resumed Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. COSCO has previously indicated that a full resumption of Red Sea transit would be a gradual process lasting three to five months, contingent on factors such as risk assessment by industry associations, reduced insurance premiums, customer acceptance of safety conditions, and consensus among alliance members.

Second, delivery pressure for ultra-large container vessels in the first half of 2026 is relatively light, with only four vessels over 17,000 TEU delivered in the first six months and a total of nine expected for the full year—significantly lower than annual delivery volumes in recent years. These factors are likely to keep supply pressure subdued in the first half of 2026.

Third, monthly year-on-year growth in demand on the Asia–Europe trade lane has remained robust, with container trade volumes frequently exceeding 10% growth. Based on these factors, near-term performance of the EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts is expected to remain relatively strong. However, these contracts have already risen significantly from their lows, and actual freight rate levels in future months remain uncertain. Investors should remain flexible in their positioning.

As of March 2, 2026, total open interest for all container shipping futures contracts on the European route stood at 85,022 lots, with daily volume reaching 117,432 lots. Settlement prices were as follows: EC2604 at 1,429.20 points, EC2605 at 1,637.40 points, EC2606 at 1,885.10 points, EC2607 at 2,094.20 points, EC2608 at 1,980.40 points, EC2609 at 1,497.50 points, EC2610 at 1,342.90 points, and EC2512 at 1,666.50 points. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) for the Shanghai–Europe route, released on February 27, was $1,420 per TEU, while the Shanghai–U.S. West Coast route stood at $1,857 per FEU and the Shanghai–U.S. East Coast route at $2,691 per FEU. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (Spot) for the Shanghai–Europe route, released on March 2, was 1,463.40 points, and the Shanghai–U.S. West Coast route was 1,045.08 points.

Trading Strategy: No outright directional recommendations at this time. Spread trades: Long EC2606 vs. short EC2610; long EC2607 vs. short EC2610.

Risks: Downside risks include weaker-than-expected economic performance in Europe and the U.S., a sharp decline in crude oil prices, higher-than-anticipated vessel deliveries, insufficient vessel idling, and improved resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upside risks include economic recovery in Europe and the U.S., renewed supply chain disruptions, significant capacity reductions by liner companies, and prolonged Red Sea disruptions leading to extended rerouting.