Gold and silver experienced another steep decline during early trading on the 16th. Data showed that during the session, spot London gold fell to $4,966.12 per ounce, down 1.04% for the day. COMEX gold dropped to $4,970.1 per ounce, declining 1.81%. Spot London silver touched $79.257 per ounce, falling 1.65%, while COMEX silver reached $79.325 per ounce, down 2.48%.
By the time of writing, both gold and silver had recovered from their lows. Spot London gold was flat at $5,018.02 per ounce; COMEX gold was down 0.65% at $5,028.7 per ounce. Spot London silver rose 0.82% to $81.242 per ounce, and COMEX silver edged up 0.03% to $81.37 per ounce.
A Huayuan Securities research report dated the 15th noted that recent gold and silver prices have shown wide fluctuations with overall weak performance. Key reasons include: first, a significant escalation in military actions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, intertwined with conflicts in Lebanon, Gulf shipping security, and regional proxy forces, gradually evolving from localized military confrontations into a major crisis affecting global energy and geopolitical patterns. Second, U.S.-Iran tensions have driven up oil prices, creating uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Third, U.S. February inflation data revealed a pattern of "superficial moderation with underlying risks rising."
The report indicated that medium-term, the dual themes of "Trump 2.0" and "rate-cut trading" will continue to provide solid fundamental support for gold price increases. Changes in the U.S.-Iran conflict situation may significantly influence oil prices and inflation expectations, thereby affecting the Fed's rate-cut pace. Investors are advised to watch for periodic allocation opportunities. Long-term, the "rate-cut trading" and "Trump 2.0" themes are expected to persist as catalysts. Against a backdrop of protectionism and major power rivalry, central bank gold purchases will form strong bottom support for gold prices, with ample upward momentum.
A Fangzheng Securities report also issued on the 15th stated that in the short term, precious metals may experience volatility due to delayed Fed rate-cut expectations or even renewed hike expectations, but central bank buying and strong speculative demand could provide support. Over the medium to long term, if stagflation expectations become clearer and the Fed's room for rate hikes appears limited, precious metals are likely to deliver significant excess returns. Opportunities for strategic allocation in equity markets related to precious metals were highlighted.