Against the backdrop of an overall contraction in the industry, beer companies have begun a major reshuffle. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2026, beer output of enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 19.362 million kiloliters, up only 0.2% year on year. The traditional peak consumption season was not "strong," with output in May, June, and July declining 6.2%, 3.1%, and 8.9% respectively year on year. This was partly due to weather-related factors such as rainy summers and frequent typhoons, and also inseparable from weak demand in catering consumption.

Eight listed beer companies achieved total revenue of 65.606 billion yuan in the first half, down 0.1% year on year, and total net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.003 billion yuan, down 2.63% year on year. Beneath the surface calm, internal divergence was sharp: among leading brewers, China Resources Beer and Yanjing Brewery maintained revenue growth, while Tsingtao Brewery and Chongqing Brewery showed weakness, with revenue declining 4.08% and 2.98% respectively. In terms of net profit, China Resources Beer fell 10.71%, Chongqing Brewery dropped 7.83%, while Yanjing Brewery surged 26.86%. Among small and medium-sized brewers, both Zhujiang Brewery and Huiquan Brewery posted revenue growth exceeding 5%, with net profit growth reaching 10.02% and 23.26% respectively. Tibet Development and Lanzhou Huanghe saw revenue growth but sharp declines in net profit.

Over the past few years, the beer industry had three major growth engines: first, product structure upgrading that drove up per-tonne prices; second, declining raw material costs that boosted gross margins; and third, increasing concentration that brought new growth to leading brewers. Since the start of this year, the cost-decline dividend has neared its limit, and with rising aluminum prices pushing up packaging material costs, the industry has entered a new round of price adjustments. At the same time, the importance of the premium battlefield has become more prominent, with brewers achieving volume growth in the premium market reaping the rewards, while those losing ground are falling behind.

Behind China Resources Beer's Revenue Growth Without Profit Growth: Baijiu Losses Widen and Goodwill Impairment Risk Cannot Be Ignored

In the first half of 2026, China Resources Beer achieved operating revenue of 24.240 billion yuan, up 1.2% year on year, and profit attributable to shareholders of 5.169 billion yuan, down 10.7% year on year, showing a clear "revenue growth without profit growth" characteristic. After the interim report was released, the company's stock price continued to decline. From the financial statements, behind the "revenue growth without profit growth," besides the drag from the baijiu business, there was also the factor of a high base from a joint venture relocation gain in the same period last year.

Breaking it down: First, in 2021, Shenzhen Runtou and China Resources Snow Breweries Investment signed an investment cooperation and relocation compensation agreement, and the group recognized a gain of approximately 827 million yuan in the first half of 2025, while in the same period of 2026 it was only about 80 million yuan. Second, baijiu business losses widened. In the first half, baijiu business revenue was 570 million yuan, down 27% year on year; EBIT was -281 million yuan, with losses expanding. In October 2022, China Resources Beer acquired a 55.19% stake in Jinsha Distillery for approximately 12.3 billion yuan (the target's book net assets at the time of acquisition were 997 million yuan), proposing a "beer and baijiu dual empowerment" strategy. However, after consolidation, Jinsha Distillery's performance has not been good, accelerating its shrinkage since 2025. The official guide price for its core product Zhaiyao Zhenpin is 1,399 yuan per bottle, with the current wholesale reference price at about 340 yuan per bottle (based on today's liquor prices), and the lowest e-commerce channel price reaching around 370 yuan, indicating a deep price inversion. It is worth mentioning that in early 2024, the batch price of Zhenpin Zhaiyao was still 520 yuan, and further back in early 2023, the batch price of the 2022 Zhenpin Zhaiyao reached 690 yuan. The continuous decline in the core product's price not only indicates that the previous high-speed growth contained bubbles, but also reflects Jinsha Distillery's weak competitiveness under the dual pressure of shrinking demand in the sub-premium price band and intensifying competition.

As of the end of the reporting period, China Resources Beer's goodwill book balance was 13.929 billion yuan, basically flat compared with the end of 2025; of which baijiu-related goodwill remaining was about 4.5 billion yuan. The company already recognized 2.877 billion yuan of goodwill impairment for the baijiu business in 2025, and in the first half of 2026 baijiu revenue and profit continued to decline, so the risk of goodwill impairment cannot be ignored.

Sub-premium and Above Products Drive Growth, Regional Divergence Obvious

China Resources Beer's beer business comprehensive turnover in the first half was 23.67 billion yuan, up 2.2% year on year. Beer sales volume was approximately 6.6 million kiloliters, up 1.7% year on year, higher than the industry output growth rate. The interim report disclosed that after excluding the gain recognized from the investment relocation agreement (115 million yuan this period, 206 million yuan in the same period last year), the beer business's profit before interest and tax was 7.119 billion yuan, up 1.2% year on year, indicating that core business profit was actually growing.

In terms of product structure, the interim report disclosed that sales volume of sub-premium and above products increased more than 10% year on year, rising to over 26% of total sales volume; sales volume of mainstream premium and above grew about 15%. It should be noted that with sub-premium sales volume growing over 10% and accounting for over 26%, the average selling price only rose 0.5%, weaker than market expectations. This may indicate that under fierce competition, the company chose to protect market share, and the growth of premium and mid-to-high-end products was not enough to fully offset pressure in the mid-to-low-end market.

By region, market performance divergence was obvious: in the first half, East Region turnover was 12.242 billion yuan, up 8.4% year on year; Central Region turnover was 6.468 billion yuan, down 2.4% year on year; South Region turnover was 6.078 billion yuan, down 1.3% year on year. The East Region contributed the main increment, while the Central and South Regions were contracting.

On the cost side, affected by rising packaging material costs (especially aluminum), the beer business gross margin was 47.3%, down 1 percentage point year on year. Management stated at the earnings conference that production costs rose about 2% year on year in the first half, mainly from packaging material price increases, while raw material costs such as barley declined slightly, partially offsetting the rise in packaging materials. On the expense side, selling expenses in the first half were 3.811 billion yuan, with an expense ratio of about 15.7%, basically flat year on year; administrative expenses were 1.591 billion yuan, with an expense ratio of about 6.6%, down about 1 percentage point year on year. Although the company temporarily increased market investment to cultivate new sub-premium products, the overall expense ratio still maintained a downward trend, partially absorbing the pressure from gross margin decline.

On the liability side, the borrowing balance at the end of the reporting period was 5.208 billion yuan, a significant increase from 1.036 billion yuan in the same period last year. Among this, short-term borrowings due within one year were 3.873 billion yuan, with short-term liabilities growing substantially.