Shenzhen, which holds the third position in China's economic rankings among cities, has announced its GDP growth targets for 2026 and the period of the 15th Five-Year Plan. On February 9, the opening of the Seventh Session of the Seventh Shenzhen Municipal People's Congress revealed these goals. The city aims for a 5% GDP growth rate in 2026, striving for even better results in practice. For the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the target is to exceed 5 trillion yuan in GDP, with the intensity of全社会研发投入 (R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP) surpassing 7%.
Last year, Shenzhen's GDP reached 3.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. With the 5% growth target for this year, Shenzhen's GDP is highly likely to surpass 4 trillion yuan. Comparatively, Shanghai and Beijing are expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan GDP in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Shenzhen aims to secure the third spot among China's "5 trillion yuan cities" during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. This requires Shenzhen to climb two trillion-yuan increments within the next five years.
Consequently, the three major economic growth poles—the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area—will each be solidly supported by a "5 trillion yuan city." This is crucial for enhancing the Greater Bay Area's pivotal role in the national economic landscape and strengthening Shenzhen's function as a core urban engine.
While carrying high expectations, Shenzhen also faces tangible challenges. The government work report mentioned that the impact of changes in the external environment is deepening, effective demand remains insufficient, and the foundation for sustained economic improvement needs consolidation. Breakthroughs in key core technologies in certain critical areas are urgently needed, and the construction of a modern industrial system that leads technological and industrial transformation requires accelerated efforts.
Where will the growth momentum for the next stage come from? From changes in investment, foreign trade, and consumption, to industrial upgrading, technological innovation, financial empowerment, and the intensive and efficient governance of a megacity, the "carriages" pulling Shenzhen forward are evolving.
**The Chinese Model of "Urban Industry"**
Economics often uses the "Petty-Clark Theorem" to explain the changing patterns of the three major industries: as per capita national income levels rise, the relative share of the secondary industry gradually increases; with further economic development, the relative share of the tertiary industry begins to rise. When Shanghai's GDP first exceeded 5 trillion yuan in 2024, the added value of its secondary industry accounted for 21.5% of GDP. When Beijing became the nation's second "5 trillion yuan city" in 2025, its secondary industry accounted for 13.8%, while the tertiary industry reached 86%.
Shenzhen, with a land area only one-third that of Shanghai and one-eighth that of Beijing, maintains the highest industrial proportion among the three cities. In 2025, Shenzhen's GDP reached 3,873.180 billion yuan, with the added value of the secondary industry at 1,448.254 billion yuan, accounting for 37.4% of GDP. The secondary and tertiary industries form a stable "40-60 split" pattern. The total output value of industries above designated size and the total industrial added value have ranked first among Chinese cities for four consecutive years.
Gong Xiaofeng, Dean of the Institute for Emerging Industries Development in the Greater Bay Area at Shenzhen University, noted that based on the experience of developed economies in Europe and America, "deindustrialization" often brings concerns about "industrial hollowing-out." Manufacturing is not only the mainstay of the national economy but also crucial for national security. "However, we should not develop low value-added manufacturing anymore. The greatest characteristic of the new round of technological and industrial revolution is advanced manufacturing, which integrates new-generation information technology with various industries, following a path of greening, digitalization, intelligence, and high-end," Gong Xiaofeng stated.
In recent years, international metropolises like New York, London, San Francisco, and Boston have focused on promoting "the return of manufacturing to the city," developing urban industries that are low-consumption, low-pollution, high-technology, and high-benefit. To some extent, Shenzhen is providing a Chinese model of "urban industry."
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen's total output value of industries above designated size crossed two trillion-yuan thresholds in five years, with an average annual growth of 6.6%. The total industrial added value grew at an average annual rate of 6.0%. More crucially is the qualitative change led by "new quality productive forces": the added value of Shenzhen's strategic emerging industries increased from 1.03 trillion yuan in 2020 to 1.67 trillion yuan in 2025, accounting for 43% of GDP. The added value of advanced manufacturing accounted for 68.4% of industries above designated size.
Specifically, the smart terminal cluster scaled the trillion-yuan mark. The scale of three clusters—network and communications, software and information services, and intelligent connected vehicles—each exceeded 800 billion yuan. The added value of core digital economy industries surpassed one trillion yuan for three consecutive years. The output of 39 industrial products, including integrated circuits, industrial robots, and smartphones, accounted for over 10% of the national total.
Led by star enterprises like DJI, Ubtech, and Zhongqing, reputations for "UAV Capital," "Robot Valley," and "Intelligent Manufacturing Corridor" have risen rapidly. Companies are not establishing large-scale traditional factories in Shenzhen, but rather corporate headquarters, R&D centers, and industrial hubs with higher value-added per unit area, undertaking functions like R&D, pilot testing, and management.
"From chip technology to electric vehicles, UAVs, and many other aspects, Shenzhen has formed a situation where emerging industrial clusters rely on, promote, and achieve success together, with many global demonstrations of innovative applications," said Sun Yingtong, Deputy to the Shenzhen Municipal People's Congress, and Chairman and General Manager of Nations Technologies Inc.
Sun Yingtong cited the 2026 CES exhibition, a global barometer for technological innovation application, as an example. Among approximately 4,000 global exhibitors, nearly 400 were from Shenzhen, accounting for about 10%. "Such an environment for emerging industry development is rare globally."
At the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen has clarified that this year it will formulate and implement the 3.0 version of the policy system for the "20+8" strategic emerging industrial clusters and future industries. The target is for the added value of strategic emerging industries to grow by over 7%, and to strive for growth of over 6% in the added value of industries above designated size.
Specifically, Shenzhen will enhance the development level of advantageous industries like new-generation electronic information, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and integrated circuits. It will seize new tracks in industries such as low-altitude economy and aerospace, biomedicine, and high-performance materials. Simultaneously, it will actively promote future industries like 6G mobile communication, quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, future energy, and brain-computer interfaces to become new economic growth points.
Shenzhen's path is clear: consolidate the foundation of the "Number One Industrial City," accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system with Shenzhen characteristics and advantages, and stronger international competitiveness, and develop the entire 1,997 square kilometers into a source and incubator for new quality productive forces and innovation.
**Intelligent Manufacturing Reshapes the "Troika"**
In early January, Shenzhen held a promotion meeting for 2026 project construction. The venue selection was significant—the Longhua District Global High-End Measurement Equipment and Sensor Intelligent Manufacturing Industrial Park, invested with 1.5 billion yuan by the Fortune 500 company Hexagon, is scheduled to be topped out in 2027.
Data shows that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen's cumulative fixed-asset investment reached 4.5 trillion yuan, 1.5 times that of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. It surpassed 1 trillion yuan in 2024. Industrial investment grew from 107.924 billion yuan in 2020 to 203.223 billion yuan in 2025, with an average annual growth of 13.5%. Its share of fixed-asset investment increased from 13.6% to 25.5%.
To some extent, the prosperity and upgrading of manufacturing have pointed the way for capital, both nationally and globally. For example, Hexagon will build a high-end intelligent manufacturing industrial park in Longhua integrating a Dual-Intelligence Empowerment Center, a Lighthouse Factory, and an Energy Power Center. After operation, it is expected to achieve a cumulative output value of 13 billion yuan within five years. Similarly, Siemens Healthineers is "doubling down" with an investment exceeding 1 billion yuan to build a high-end medical equipment R&D and manufacturing base in Nanshan, which will undertake the R&D and production of core components for angiography equipment and magnetic resonance imaging systems.
In 2026, a number of major projects are on the agenda. According to the government work report, Shenzhen will complete and put into operation projects such as the BYD Global R&D Center, the Founder Microelectronics Integrated Circuit Industrial Park, and the first phase of the Yanluo New Energy Intelligent Manufacturing Industrial Park. It will accelerate projects like the Semitronics Technology Park, HKC New Energy, and Jfen Electronics Shenshan Advanced Polyimide Polymer Materials project. Fixed-asset investment is targeted to grow by 5%.
Consumption determines the market realization of manufactured products. Conversely, manufacturing also creates new demand by providing higher quality and more novel products. At the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1.03 trillion yuan, growing by 2.3%, with the total volume exceeding one trillion yuan for three consecutive years.
Over the past year, a number of technology-focused flagship stores have opened in Shenzhen, including the world's first robot 6S store, the world's first 3D printing store, and the Honor Alpha Global Flagship Store. The robot 6S store attracted nearly 70 brands. Citizens can experience the joint flexibility of humanoid robots up close and interact with robotic dogs through commands. In the global flagship store of Bambu Lab,超大 3D printed sand tables, 3D printed trains with programmable CyberBrick functions, and other displays are dazzling.
Zhang Xiaoduan, Deputy Director of the DTZ Research Institute and Head of Research for South and Central China, analyzed that Shenzhen's strong technological industrial base can resonate with the consumer market through a "front store, back factory" model, directly translating into unique consumer resources. "By opening flagship stores and building offline experience scenarios, it not only promotes local consumption but also attracts national and cross-border tourists to visit."
Shenzhen's average age of permanent residents is under 33, making it the youngest megacity in China. It holds a first-mover advantage in embracing diverse cultures and cutting-edge expressions, offering great potential for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen aims to build a consumption center with globally significant influence.首发经济 (first-release economy), ticket stub economy,谷子经济 (a term likely referring to niche/fan economies), and interest-based consumption are highlighted, expected to further stimulate consumption potential.
The national "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal explicitly states the need to adhere to the close integration of benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, and investing in physical assets and investing in human capital. Shenzhen's unique approach to expanding domestic demand is to leverage its advanced manufacturing advantages to reconstruct the logic of investment and consumption.
Looking at another "carriage" of the economy—foreign trade—during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen's total foreign trade import and export volume increased by 1.5 trillion yuan over five years, accounting for 11.3% of the national total. Last year, the city's total foreign trade import and export volume reached 4.55 trillion yuan, growing by 1.4%. The scale ranked first among Chinese cities for two consecutive years, and exports achieved a "33 consecutive championships."
"Intelligent Manufacturing" remains the core growth driver. In 2025, the import and export scale of Shenzhen's high-tech products reached 1.4 trillion yuan, ranking first nationally and accounting for 30.7% of the city's total import and export value. On one hand, products like lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles showed strong momentum, with combined exports of 120.13 billion yuan. On the other hand, exports of digital cameras, 3D printers, metrology and inspection instruments, and medical devices all ranked first nationally, continuously translating advantages in technological and industrial innovation into foreign trade momentum.
This November, Shenzhen will host the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, stepping into the center stage of international top-level host diplomacy. Seizing the "host" opportunity, the government work report clarified that Shenzhen will expand high-level international economic and trade cooperation, promote innovative development of foreign trade, and optimize the "buy global, sell global" service system.
"Shenzhen could explore regularly setting up 'Electronic Supply Chain Cooperation Sessions' under the APEC cooperation framework to promote policy dialogue, standard mutual recognition, and industrial cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region," said Zhong Guanyi, Deputy to the Shenzhen Municipal People's Congress and Executive President of Shenzhen Sinolink Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., in an interview. The hosting of the APEC meeting is expected to further reduce institutional costs for companies going global and help push Shenzhen's high-quality products to the world.
**The Emergence of a New "Troika"**
Last year, the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou" innovation cluster jumped to first place in the GII Global Innovation Clusters ranking. "A change in methodology resulted in a new top cluster in 2025," the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) stated. Besides the two major indicators of previous years—scientific paper publications and PCT patent applications—a new important assessment dimension was added: venture capital (VC) transaction volume, which reshaped the ranking landscape.
Zheng Yongnian, Dean of the School of Public Policy at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Dean of the Qianhai Institute for International Affairs, proposed that the core of new quality productive forces lies in industrial upgrading driven by technological progress, which requires the coordination of a "new troika"—basic scientific research, application technology transformation, and financial system support. This corresponds one-to-one with the three major indicators adopted by WIPO.
The "overlap" of these two narrative frameworks reflects a deepened global understanding of innovation elements and points the direction for future urban innovation development.
Sun Yingtong observed that Shenzhen is extremely sensitive to application technology transformation, but still lags behind cities with deeper foundations like Beijing and Shanghai in basic research. "In recent years, Shenzhen has attached great importance to the landing of major scientific installations. I believe this shortcoming will be remedied soon."
R&D data verifies Shenzhen's determination and extraordinary efforts to address its shortcomings. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen's全社会研发投入 (R&D expenditure) increased from 151.08 billion yuan in 2020 to 245.31 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth of 12.9%. The R&D intensity reached 6.67%, ranking first among Chinese cities, while the total amount ranked second nationally.
In terms of platforms and carriers, national strategic scientific forces in Shenzhen like Peng Cheng Laboratory, the Xili Lake International Sci-Tech City, the Guangming Science City, and the Dayun Shenzhen-Hong Kong International Science and Education City are accelerating their construction and development. Major scientific infrastructures such as the Synthetic Biology Research facility, Brain Analysis and Brain Simulation facility, and Materials Genome facility have been built and operated. The second phase of the National Supercomputing Center in Shenzhen has been fully activated, with its computing performance ranking first globally.
Planting the phoenix tree attracts the phoenix. Currently, Shenzhen's total talent pool exceeds 7.19 million, including 1.665 million highly-skilled talents and over 28,000 high-level talents. Fifteen individuals were newly elected as academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences or Engineering. 1,050 scholars were listed among the "World's Top 2% Scientists." The full-time equivalent of R&D personnel reached 474,000 person-years, ranking first among Chinese cities.
During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen aims for an R&D intensity exceeding 7%—a proportion that will far surpass levels in many developed countries and international metropolises. This year, Shenzhen proposes a growth of over 10% in R&D expenditure and an increase in the proportion of basic research investment, implementing over 180 basic research projects.
Recently, a regional fund of the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund, with a scale exceeding 50 billion yuan, was established in Shenzhen, primarily investing in seed-stage and early-stage technology companies in strategic emerging industries and future industry fields. The internal logic of this layout is that when basic research and application transformation converge in one location, capital will follow, attracted by the abundance of high-quality investment targets available.
Last year, Shenzhen attracted 15 licensed financial institutions, including Santander Bank and CMB International Capital. The added value of the financial industry grew by 12.1%. This year's government work report for the first time proposed the "Double Ten-Thousand Fund" goal: the number of various innovation, entrepreneurship, and industrial investment funds exceeding ten thousand, with a total scale exceeding one trillion yuan.
"This goal is deeply linked with Shenzhen's '20+8' industrial cluster planning. Through a trillion-yuan fund cluster, it precisely matches the capital needs of related industries, avoids disconnection between capital and industry, and will also solve the financing difficulties faced by hard-tech companies in stages like seed, angel, and pilot testing," said Yu Lingqu, Executive Director of the Institute of Financial Development and State-owned Enterprises Research at the China Development Institute (Shenzhen).
During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen proposed to accelerate the construction of an industrial finance center with globally significant influence and build a key pole in the global capital market. Yu Lingqu mentioned that by clarifying market expectations through the "Double Ten-Thousand" indicators, it is expected to promote the aggregation of diverse funds including government-guided funds, state-owned capital, insurance funds, industrial capital, and international capital, consolidating Shenzhen's strength and status as an industrial finance center.
Thus, a new power cycle anchored on the "5 trillion yuan" target is taking shape in Shenzhen: Basic Research - Application Transformation - Financial Support. Continuously increasing R&D investment, the gathering momentum of emerging industries, and the precise empowerment of the "Double Ten-Thousand" funds will open up broader imaginative space for this city of innovation.