Gold has surged by 16.76% since the start of the year. On February 13, spot gold rose 2.39%, climbing back above $5,000 to $5,042.205 per ounce. In fact, since late January 2026, the global precious metals market has experienced what can be described as an 'epic' rally. From January 19 to 28, international gold prices recorded eight consecutive days of gains, repeatedly setting new historical highs, with a cumulative increase of 17.7%. After reaching a peak of $5,598.75 on January 29, prices experienced significant volatility, with an intraday swing of 9.2%, closing slightly lower. On January 30, influenced by rumors of "the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate being decided" and the official news of Kevin Warsh taking over, gold staged an 'epic plunge', plummeting 9.25% in a single day to $4,880, marking its largest one-day drop in nearly 43 years. On the same day, London spot silver plunged 26.42%, its largest decline in nearly 46 years. After absorbing the shock over the weekend, gold continued to fall at the open on February 2, briefly approaching $4,400, representing a cumulative retreat of 22.4% from the high of $5,598 three days prior; it then bottomed out and rebounded, closing above $4,600 that day. Subsequently, gold prices resumed a highly volatile upward trend, climbing back above $5,000 over the five trading days from February 3 to 9, but still remaining $500-$600 below the previous peak.

Historical experience suggests that a state of "high gains + high volatility" easily prompts concentrated profit-taking in the market. For instance, in October 2008, after the Gold ETF Volatility Index peaked for a period, London spot gold prices fell by over 20%. In March 2020, as the Gold ETF Volatility Index rose rapidly, London spot gold prices dropped more than 10%. Secondly, the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) raised margin requirements for gold. In late December last year, the CME raised margins for gold and silver twice consecutively; in mid-January this year, the CME adjusted its margin mechanism, changing the calculation method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts from a fixed amount to a dynamically floating percentage of the contract's notional value. Amid the sharp decline in gold and silver prices on January 30, the CME again raised margins for non-high-risk accounts from 6% to 8%, and for high-risk accounts from 6.6% to 8.8%. On February 6, the CME took further action, raising the initial margin for its COMEX 100 gold futures from 8% to 9%, and the initial margin for its COMEX 5000 silver futures from 15% to 18%. Although raising margin requirements can curb overheated speculative sentiment in the gold market, it has also triggered short-term sharp fluctuations in gold prices.

The chief economist at Dongwu Securities believes the gold price movement in January 2026 was primarily influenced by a mix of multiple macro and non-macro factors. During the month,反复 adjustments to US economic data and monetary policy expectations, changes in dollar credibility, geopolitical risk disturbances, and precious metal supply and demand expectations collectively caused the pricing logic of gold across different value attribute dimensions to exhibit characteristics of阶段性 switching. Observing from the four dimensions of asset allocation, currency, safe-haven, and commodity, it is difficult for a single factor to主导 price movements持续 throughout the month; the market更多地 reflected a passive response to changes in events and expectations.

Can gold prices continue to challenge historical highs in 2026? US CPI data is seen as an important reference variable. Data shows that US CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in January, the lowest growth rate since May 2025. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy items, rose 2.5% year-on-year in January, the slowest pace since March 2021. After seasonal adjustment, January CPI increased 0.2% month-on-month, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month. If the Federal Reserve maintains its pace of interest rate cuts, a weaker US dollar typically has a boosting effect on gold prices. Meanwhile, leading investment banks like J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank have recently increased their holdings of gold ETFs, with global holdings seeing a net increase of 62 tonnes compared to the end of January. Several international institutions have recently raised their gold price targets. Deutsche Bank noted in a report that "the main drivers pushing gold prices higher – increased central bank gold reserves, weakening US dollar credibility, persistent geopolitical risks – remain unchanged." J.P. Morgan Private Bank also raised its gold price target for the end of 2026 to $6,150 per ounce, citing 'catch-up increases in gold reserves' by emerging market central banks as its core rationale.

It is judged that gold prices still have underlying support for an upward trend in 2026. Firstly, the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates 2-3 times in the second half of the year, and the US dollar index also has room to fall, which will support the rise of gold's financial and monetary attributes. Secondly, geopolitical risks remain elevated; recent events, including the lack of substantive results in US-Iran negotiations and Japanese House of Representatives election results showing a significant 'rightward shift' in the political spectrum, have also increased regional instability factors. Thirdly, the 'de-dollarization' trend has not ended, and the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings is expected to persist, with the year-end gold price range potentially rising to $5,500-$6,000 by the end of 2026.

The chief macro analyst at Guotai Haitong believes that the sharp decline in gold prices in this round is mainly a normal adjustment following previous excessive gains, high leverage, and crowded trades, and does not alter the long-term bullish market structure for gold. "The sharp drop in precious metal prices this round is a technical adjustment to the irrational rise since the beginning of the year, not the end of gold's long-term bull market." In the short term, the cooling of previously overheated speculative sentiment and the reduction in leverage levels will help gold return to a healthier and more stable upward trend. In the long term, against a backdrop of declining trust between nations, the global economy is still undergoing a continuous reconstruction of the monetary system, central banks still have significant room to purchase gold, and the long-term bullish trend for gold is expected to continue.