Gold prices experienced slight downward pressure during early Asian trading on Wednesday, hovering near $4,880. With several major Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, liquidity was significantly reduced, leading to a lack of sustained momentum in price movements.
Market analysts noted that trading depth has weakened during the Asian holiday period, making prices more susceptible to short-term capital flows. While the U.S. dollar shows no clear directional trend, the near-term path for gold remains uncertain.
A renewed softening in the U.S. dollar could attract bargain-hunting demand; conversely, if the dollar stabilizes and rebounds, gold may continue its modest pullback. On the geopolitical front, there are signs of a temporary easing in U.S.-Iran tensions.
Iran's foreign minister stated that both sides have reached some consensus on "guiding principles" in nuclear negotiations. Although a final agreement is not imminent, the de-escalation has reduced the appeal of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset.
This has contributed to the recent short-term decline in gold prices. Market attention is now focused on the upcoming release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Investors are seeking further details regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut trajectory.
If the minutes convey a dovish tone, the U.S. dollar could face pressure, thereby supporting dollar-denominated gold prices. Should the language appear more cautious or hawkish, it may limit gold's potential for a rebound.
Overall, against the backdrop of thin holiday liquidity and an impending key event, gold's price action is expected to remain range-bound, awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts.
From a daily chart perspective, gold has entered a consolidation phase following its previous consecutive gains. The current pullback toward short-term moving averages suggests a slowdown in bullish momentum.
A decisive break below the $4,830 support level could trigger further technical selling, with the next key level at the $4,800 psychological mark. If prices stabilize and reclaim the $4,900 zone, an upward trend may resume.
The 4-hour chart indicates a range-bound pattern, with the MACD showing weakening momentum and the RSI retreating toward the 50 level, suggesting a neutral short-term bias. In summary, gold's near-term direction will largely depend on the impact of the FOMC minutes on U.S. dollar movements.
Gold is currently in a phase characterized by high-level consolidation and event-driven volatility. While thin liquidity may amplify short-term fluctuations, the primary trend will ultimately be determined by Federal Reserve policy expectations and the performance of the U.S. dollar.
Should the FOMC minutes reinforce expectations for rate cuts within the year, a weaker dollar could provide fresh upward momentum for gold. Conversely, if the Fed signals greater caution, gold may continue to trade within a tight range or experience a modest decline.
Until the key event concludes, the market is likely to maintain its range-bound pattern.