Title

Earning Preview: Vipshop this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 4.02%, and institutional views are cautious

Abstract

Vipshop will report fourth-quarter results on February 26, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview synthesizes consensus forecasts and the company’s most recent quarterly disclosures to frame expectations on revenue, margins, net income, and EPS for investors tracking the release.

Market Forecast

Consensus forecasts point to fourth-quarter revenue of $33.39 billion, up 4.02% year over year, EBIT of $3.05 billion, up 2.04% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 5.42, down 1.66% year over year. While detailed margin guidance is not provided, the implied setup is modest top-line growth with broadly steady operating profit expansion and a near-flat earnings per share trajectory.

The main business is expected to remain centered on discount-driven merchandising, where product selection and inventory turn sustain efficiency and gross profit capture; the outlook hinges on balanced promotional intensity and operating discipline to preserve margin quality. The segment with the most attention for incremental growth is “Products,” which generated $19.36 billion in the prior quarter and benefited from an overall company revenue growth of 3.36% year over year, positioning it as the primary engine of scale and leverage.

Last Quarter Review

Vipshop’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $21.37 billion, a gross profit margin of 22.97%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $1.22 billion, a net profit margin of 5.71%, and adjusted EPS of 2.98, up 20.65% year over year; net profit declined 18.06% quarter over quarter by the tool’s metric. A key financial highlight was the combination of rising adjusted EPS year over year with disciplined cost control that supported a positive EBIT surprise versus estimates. Main business highlights included “Products” revenue of $19.36 billion and “Others” revenue of $2.01 billion, with overall company revenue growing 3.36% year over year, reflecting steady execution in the core discount assortment.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Discount Merchandising and Profit Discipline

The main business continues to be the company’s discounted retail platform, where assortment depth, curation quality, and continuous replenishment enable consistent conversion. The prior quarter’s 22.97% gross margin provides a baseline for profitability, suggesting the merchandise margin mix and fulfillment efficiency have held up, even as consumer sensitivity to promotions can fluctuate near season-end periods. For the current quarter, maintaining gross margin resilience will depend on tight inventory management, ensuring sell-through rates align with promotional calendars to avoid markdown overshoot. The net profit margin of 5.71% last quarter illustrates that operating expenses were well-contained relative to sales, and this discipline will be central to defending EBIT growth in a quarter where revenue expansion is forecast at 4.02% year over year. As the company manages a large-scale product catalog, SKU rationalization and fast-moving stock will be focal points to preserve the balance between revenue growth and margin integrity.

Most Watched Business: Products

“Products” is the most watched business line, contributing $19.36 billion in last quarter’s revenue and representing 90.61% of total sales, which underscores its importance for any quarter-to-quarter performance swing. With overall company revenue having increased 3.36% year over year last quarter, investors will look for evidence that product-level sell-through and average order value can support the forecasted 4.02% year-over-year top-line expansion in the current quarter. Inventory composition, price elasticity across categories, and the cadence of promotional events will determine whether the revenue estimate can be met without compromising margin. Operational execution—particularly in fulfillment and returns handling—will influence variable cost per order and has direct bearing on incremental gross profit retention. If the company can sustain a healthy pace of repeat purchases while managing discount depth, the “Products” segment will likely continue to anchor both revenue scale and the potential for operating leverage.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings per share guidance and delivery versus consensus will likely be the most sensitive driver for the stock’s move on the print; the forecast implies EPS of 5.42, a 1.66% year-over-year decline, which sets up a narrow band for upside or downside surprises. The relationship between merchandise margin and marketing spend efficiency is central: if gross margin can remain near the prior quarter’s 22.97% while customer acquisition and retention costs stay disciplined, EBIT expansion at 2.04% year over year becomes attainable even with modest revenue growth. Another price driver is quarter-on-quarter momentum; last quarter’s net profit decline of 18.06% from the previous quarter suggests seasonality or promotional timing effects, making sequential stabilization or rebound an important signal to investors evaluating near-term profitability trends. Finally, any commentary on inventory health, returns rates, and order frequency will shape expectations for gross margin durability and the sustainability of EPS, given the scale of “Products” and its leverage dynamics.

Analyst Opinions

Within the permitted period from January 1, 2026 to February 19, 2026, publicly available analyst previews specific to the upcoming quarter were not found in our collection, leaving no countable split between bullish and bearish views. In the absence of recent published opinions, the cautious baseline implied by consensus forecasts becomes the operative lens, given projected revenue growth of 4.02% year over year, EBIT growth of 2.04% year over year, and a slightly declining EPS year over year. This setup suggests institutions anticipate a steady quarter driven by core execution rather than outsized top-line acceleration, with the balance of evidence favoring a conservative stance until margin and sequential net profit dynamics are clarified by the report. The cautious view centers on whether gross margin can hold near recent levels while the company absorbs promotional and fulfillment costs, and whether sequential profitability stabilizes after last quarter’s quarter-on-quarter net profit decline. If management demonstrates that expense discipline and merchandise margin mix can offset the mild EPS headwind reflected in estimates, the cautious consensus could pivot toward a more constructive reading on operating leverage for the year ahead.