Abstract

Albany International will report fourth-quarter fiscal results on February 24, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles the latest financial forecast, prior-quarter performance, segment trends, and the prevailing analyst stance within the January 1, 2026 to February 17, 2026 window.

Market Forecast

Consensus-style indicators embedded in Albany International’s latest forecast point to fourth-quarter revenue of $292.32 million, implying a year-over-year change of -2.38%, an EBIT estimate of $31.22 million with a year-over-year change of -24.96%, and EPS of $0.70 with a year-over-year change of 6.44%. The last report’s forecasting framework does not explicitly include gross profit margin or net margin projections; given the model’s structure, margin direction will hinge on execution in both Machine Clothing and the Albany Engineered Composites businesses. Machine Clothing remains the core revenue engine, while Albany Engineered Composites offers long-cycle upside; the balance of backlog delivery and program mix will shape short-term results, with composite shipments positioned as the most promising contribution if aerospace schedules remain intact.

Last Quarter Review

Albany International’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $261.43 million, a gross profit margin of -19.10%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -$97.76 million, a net profit margin of -37.39%, and adjusted EPS of $0.71, with year-over-year adjusted EPS change of -11.25%. The quarter’s headline was a miss versus internal and external expectations, as EBIT landed at $33.54 million against a higher estimate and EPS undershot by $0.02. Main business performance showed Machine Clothing revenue of $174.95 million and Albany Engineered Composites revenue of $86.48 million; sequential dynamics reflected program-level delivery timing and order cadence, while mix effects weighed on consolidated profitability.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Machine Clothing

Machine Clothing is Albany International’s principal cash-generating franchise, anchored in paper, packaging, and industrial process belts. Near-term revenue stability tends to correlate with mill utilization rates and maintenance cycles, and the guidance framework positions the segment to drive most of the consolidated revenue this quarter. Pricing discipline and product mix will be central to margin stabilization, especially following the prior quarter’s negative reported gross margin. Operational normalization after restructuring charges or cost timing effects could lift reported margins even if top-line trends remain modest. Watch for incremental orders tied to packaging and tissue end-markets, where mill run-rates have been relatively resilient; limited exposure to cyclical capex delays should temper volatility, but any spare capacity or inventory adjustments at customers could cap upside in revenue conversion.

Albany Engineered Composites

Albany Engineered Composites continues to represent the company’s highest optionality for growth, driven by aerospace programs and advanced structural components. Delivery schedules, learning-curve benefits, and rate ramps are critical inputs to EBIT trajectory in this business, and the current forecast suggests consolidated EBIT pressure this quarter, which may reflect conservative assumptions on program timing. If OEM build rates hold and supply-chain friction remains contained, composite shipments can scale toward backlog execution, offering a favorable mix for future quarters even if reported revenue is subdued this quarter. The segment’s margin path will depend on throughput improvements and scrap reduction; any progress on these productivity levers would support EPS resiliency against the broader revenue estimate decline. An additional variable is inventory normalization downstream at customers; a smoother pull pattern would facilitate steadier quarter-to-quarter revenue recognition.

Stock Price Drivers

The primary stock catalysts revolve around margin recovery signals and the quality of EPS relative to the revenue decline embedded in the forecast. Investors will parse whether the negative gross margin in the prior quarter was an anomaly tied to nonrecurring charges or a structural issue; tangible improvement in gross margin back toward typical levels would be a key positive read-through for valuation. Second, order intake and backlog commentary in Machine Clothing can validate revenue durability through calendar 2026, reducing uncertainty on near-term top-line conversion. Third, in Albany Engineered Composites, visibility on rate ramps and customer program milestones can reset expectations for EBIT inflection; any confirmation of stable build schedules in aerospace would be interpreted constructively even if consolidated revenue is lower year over year. Lastly, cash flow conversion and capital allocation posture—especially maintenance of dividends and disciplined capex—will influence sentiment on the stock’s defensiveness in a mixed demand environment.

Analyst Opinions

Among recent institutional takes observed over the past six months, the skew of commentary is moderately positive, with a majority leaning bullish on margin normalization and the durability of Machine Clothing cash flows while remaining cautious on composites’ timing. Several investment houses highlight the resilience of the core franchise and the return potential if gross margin reverts toward historical baselines. One widely cited view argues that the negative gross margin and net margin last quarter were disproportionately affected by transient costs rather than ongoing operational weakness, implying scope for EPS to meet or slightly exceed the $0.70 estimate even with revenue down 2.38% year over year. Another analyst perspective emphasizes the longer-term growth embed in Albany Engineered Composites tied to aerospace rates, suggesting a favorable medium-term mix shift once delivery cadence steadies. Balancing these, neutral voices point to the forecasted EBIT decline of 24.96% year over year as a sign of near-term headwinds, though they concede that improved execution could mitigate the impact on EPS. On net, the majority view is constructive on this quarter’s prints if margins show sequential repair and management provides clearer visibility on program schedules, with downside risks framed around customer inventory digestion and potential delays in composite ramp-ups.