Abstract

Americold Realty Trust will release fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 19, 2026, Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to softer top-line and earnings trends and investors watching margin stabilization, capital allocation signals, and updated guidance.

Market Forecast

Consensus expects Americold Realty Trust’s current-quarter revenue at USD 656.42 million, down 4.04% year over year, EPS at USD 0.06, down 37.03% year over year, and EBIT at USD 46.95 million, down 23.61% year over year. While margin forecasts are not provided, last quarter’s gross profit margin was 30.89% and net margin was -1.71%, offering the latest reference points for assessing profitability and any sequential moves this quarter. The warehouse segment remains the operational center of gravity, anchoring revenue and utilization, with execution expected to focus on throughput efficiency, occupancy management, and service mix. Transportation contributed USD 47.84 million last quarter; with overall revenue expected to decline 4.04% year over year this quarter, the pace of operational normalization in transportation is a key swing factor for earnings quality and trajectory.

Last Quarter Review

Americold Realty Trust reported revenue of USD 663.67 million (down 1.56% year over year), a gross profit margin of 30.89%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD -11.37 million and a net profit margin of -1.71%, and adjusted EPS of USD -0.04 (down 300% year over year). EBIT was USD 16.75 million, down 75.32% year over year, reflecting the pressure on operating leverage given lower throughput and the cost-intensive nature of core operations. Warehouse revenue reached USD 607.01 million within the quarter, while transportation contributed USD 47.84 million and third-party management USD 8.81 million; overall revenue contracted 1.56% year over year, underscoring the volume and pricing constraints evident in the operating backdrop.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Operations: Cold Storage Warehousing

The warehouse platform remains the primary earnings engine, and the revenue base of USD 607.01 million last quarter highlights the segment’s importance to consolidated performance. Consensus is signaling lower year-over-year revenue for the current quarter alongside a material decline in EPS and EBIT, which places a premium on stabilizing throughput volumes and occupancy. Pricing and contract mix will influence gross margin variability, and last quarter’s 30.89% gross margin serves as the most recent benchmark for tracking changes in unit economics. Operational intensity and fixed-cost absorption are likely to determine how much of any volume movement translates into incremental earnings. If management has been able to refine labor planning, energy cost management, and service-level delivery against contracts, the warehouse business can produce a more resilient margin profile even in a softer demand environment. The key to watching this quarter will be whether any shift in customer activity patterns leads to better utilization of capacity and reduced variance in service costs, translating to steadier EBIT margins relative to last quarter’s weak print. In the absence of explicit margin guidance, the comparison against last quarter’s margin reference points will be central to gauging sequential progress.

Most Promising Business: Transportation and Integrated Logistics

Although transportation is smaller in revenue terms (USD 47.84 million last quarter), it offers leverage opportunities when routing efficiency and load consolidation improve. Even modest gains in yield and capacity utilization can have an outsized effect on EPS given the sensitivity of operating costs to volume consistency. This quarter, attention will be on whether transportation volumes corroborate any signs of a utilization recovery that could offset broader top-line headwinds. The segment’s integration with warehousing workflows—timing of inbound and outbound movements, temperature-controlled handling requirements, and coordination across customer schedules—means execution quality can reduce variability and enhance margin stability. If management has achieved better alignment between transportation scheduling and warehouse operations, it can capture incremental service revenue while limiting cost overruns. In a quarter where overall revenue is forecast to decline 4.04% year over year, transportation’s ability to stabilize service mix and improve asset productivity can be a notable positive for earnings composition.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Americold Realty Trust’s corporate developments will also matter for investor framing. The company disclosed adjusted funds from operations guidance for the fourth quarter at USD 0.36–0.38 per share in late January, which anchors expectations for distributable cash generation against the backdrop of weaker EPS and EBIT forecasts. The guidance level relative to consensus can inform how investors bridge near-term EPS softness with cash-flow resilience, particularly for income-focused shareholders. Leadership transition is another focal point: the appointment of Christopher Papa as Chief Financial Officer, effective February 23, 2026, and the interim CFO coverage have sharpened attention on balance sheet discipline and capital allocation. Investors will assess whether changes in financial leadership accelerate initiatives to streamline costs, refine pricing oversight, and support selective investment or divestiture decisions. In December, the board formed a finance committee to review the portfolio and identify potential divestitures while reducing debt and preserving core assets, signaling a willingness to optimize the asset base and improve financial flexibility. These governance and capital decisions intersect with the operating outlook. If the portfolio review surfaces actionable moves to simplify operations and recycle capital into higher-return opportunities, it can mitigate earnings volatility and support margin repair. At the same time, equity market reactions have been sensitive to rating changes and price target resets in recent months. As a result, updated management commentary on throughput volumes, occupancy, and pricing discipline—alongside clarity on the capital plan—will likely be decisive for near-term stock performance.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing institutional tone is cautious to bearish, and recent actions have reinforced the focus on operating challenges and earnings risk. J.P. Morgan downgraded Americold Realty Trust to Underweight and trimmed its price target to USD 15 from USD 17, flagging lower throughput volumes and pressure on occupancy and pricing as the core constraints on near-term performance. The brokerage emphasized that the operating-intensive nature of temperature-controlled logistics leaves forecasts susceptible to shifts in volume and service mix, reinforcing uncertainty around quarterly earnings cadence. Bank of America cut its rating to Underperform with a USD 13 price target, and shares fell in reaction on February 6, 2026. The downgrade reflected concerns that the expected decline in revenue and the steep drop projected in EPS and EBIT this quarter point to a more prolonged profitability reset. In Bank of America’s framing, the risk-adjusted path to margin normalization appears longer than earlier anticipated, and a clearer inflection in volumes and pricing discipline is needed before revisiting a more constructive stance. Baird downgraded Americold Realty Trust to Neutral in December and lowered its price target to USD 13, citing weaker visibility into volume recovery and caution around operating leverage given the recent EBIT performance. Neutral stances from other coverage firms, including UBS and Wells Fargo, echo the view that while the company’s asset base provides strategic optionality, investors require firmer evidence of throughput stabilization and improved cost control before adopting a bullish posture. Across these bearish and cautious views, the central thread is consistent: near-term earnings are tightly linked to operational execution in warehousing and related services, and quarter-to-quarter visibility remains limited. With consensus expecting revenue to decline 4.04% year over year and EPS to fall 37.03% year over year in the current quarter, the majority of institutions are looking for concrete signs of stabilization. The focus now is on whether management’s AFFO guidance, leadership changes, and portfolio review initiatives can underpin a pathway to steadier margins and more predictable earnings, setting up a potential shift in sentiment once operational metrics show progress.