Abstract

Avista Corporation will release fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 25, 2026, Pre-Market, with forecasts pointing to higher revenue and earnings on seasonal strength and recent tariff updates.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest forecast dataset, Avista Corporation’s current-quarter revenue is estimated at $515.90 million, up 7.34% year over year, with EBIT projected at $143.57 million, up 38.30% year over year, and adjusted EPS expected at $1.02, up 18.47% year over year. No formal company guidance on gross margin or net margin for the quarter is available in the dataset, so margin forecasts are omitted here.

The core business remains Utilities, where the preceding quarter generated $403.00 million in revenue and expanded 2.35% year over year, supported by tariff updates and an improved power cost environment. The most promising near-term vector is the same Utilities unit, which is projected to contribute the bulk of this quarter’s estimated $515.90 million revenue, implying a 7.34% year-over-year expansion from the comparable period.

Last Quarter Review

Avista Corporation’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $403.00 million, a gross profit margin of 71.46%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $29.00 million, a net profit margin of 7.20%, and adjusted EPS of $0.36, up 56.52% year over year.

A key highlight was the sharp quarter-on-quarter improvement in GAAP net profit, which rose 107.14%, with adjusted EPS exceeding its estimate by $0.08 despite revenue missing the estimate by $14.80 million. In the Utilities business, revenue came in at $403.00 million, increasing 2.35% year over year, underpinned by favorable winter demand patterns and execution on cost recovery mechanisms.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Utilities (Core Operations)

The Utilities unit anchors Avista Corporation’s quarterly performance, and the current setup points to a stronger top line on seasonal demand and recently filed tariff adjustments. The forecasted $515.90 million revenue suggests a year-over-year increase of 7.34%, while the projected $143.57 million EBIT implies robust operating leverage with 38.30% year-over-year growth. This pairing reflects a quarter where throughput and recoveries are both expected to be constructive, helped by previously implemented riders and trackers that align cost recovery with actual power supply dynamics.

Earnings quality in the Utilities unit is closely tied to weather variability, commodity inputs, and the timing of fuel and purchased power cost pass-throughs. With last quarter’s gross profit margin at 71.46% and net profit margin at 7.20%, management’s cost control and rate structures appear to be cushioning volatility, supporting an uplift in adjusted EPS to the $1.02 forecast this quarter, up 18.47% year over year. While the dataset does not include a formal margin forecast, the strong EBIT growth expectation alongside the revenue estimate suggests operational tailwinds are broad-based rather than singular, extending beyond pure volume to encompass regulated cost recovery and incremental efficiency in supply costs.

Recent corporate developments underscore continuity in cash flows. On February 10, 2026, Avista increased its quarterly dividend to $0.4925 per share, reflecting confidence in near-term cash generation. The company also confirmed its earnings schedule for February 25, 2026, indicating readiness to discuss capital plans and rate proceedings alongside results. Together, these moves frame expectations for a quarter where the core business remains steady, aided by supportive regulatory filings and a resource portfolio that is incrementally tuned to capacity needs.

Utilities (Near-Term Growth Vector)

Within the Utilities unit, the most tangible near-term growth vector is the blend of new capacity resources and demand-side management that Avista selected on January 26, 2026. These selections add needed capacity within the portfolio and, coupled with demand response, are designed to mitigate peak load costs and improve supply adequacy, potentially reducing the volatility that can pressure quarterly margins. Although the forecast dataset does not break out revenue by subcategories such as electric and natural gas, the aggregate utility revenue projection of $515.90 million implies strong throughput and healthy cost alignment through the period.

Complementing the portfolio-side improvements is Avista’s steady progress on regulatory filings. On February 13, 2026, Avista filed an annual price adjustment in Idaho (effective May 1, 2026), and on January 16, 2026, the company submitted a four-year general rate plan in Washington, aiming to address grid upgrades, wildfire resilience, and rising power supply expenses. While these filings primarily affect future periods, the current-quarter expectations will benefit from the visibility and cadence of cost recovery that such processes reinforce. The net effect is a setup where, even without explicit margin guidance, investors can anticipate that the Utilities unit’s revenue and EBIT uplift is underpinned by both internal resource actions and the external regulatory framework.

The year-over-year increases embedded in the forecast—7.34% for revenue and 38.30% for EBIT—signal that Avista is tracking well against its prior-year quarter comparables. The adjusted EPS estimate of $1.02, up 18.47% year over year, fits with a quarter in which operating efficiency and prudent cost management converge. As last quarter’s net profit rose 107.14% sequentially, the company enters the current period with momentum, and the incremental resource and rate actions reduce the probability of adverse cost surprises during peak demand windows.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Three elements are likely to shape Avista Corporation’s stock price around the print and through the near term: reported EPS versus estimates, visibility on cost recovery and rate timing, and ongoing capital deployment decisions. The first catalyst is straightforward: the street will look for confirmation that adjusted EPS lands near the $1.02 forecast with the revenue estimate of $515.90 million, and whether EBIT aligns with the $143.57 million expectation. A beat on earnings with stable margins would validate the seasonality and supply-cost assumptions implied in the forecast dataset.

The second driver is the cadence and clarity of regulatory actions. Investors will parse the company’s commentary on the Idaho annual price adjustment and the Washington four-year general rate plan to understand prospective impacts on cash flow timing, especially as these proceedings flow through 2026 and beyond. Clear articulation of recovery mechanisms for power supply costs, wildfire resilience investments, and grid modernization spending can bolster confidence in forward margin stability, even in the absence of formal gross or net margin guidance for the quarter.

The third driver is capital allocation and financing execution. The recent dividend increase to $0.4925 per share showcases confidence, but investors will also weigh the company’s external financing plans reported by financial media—such as issuing long-term debt and potentially common equity in 2026—to fund an estimated $575.00 million of capital expenditures that tie to broader infrastructure and resource initiatives. The balance between growth investment, rate-base expansion, and dilution risk will influence valuation perceptions. If management demonstrates that resource additions and demand response materially temper peak procurement costs, the market may view the financing plan as favorably accretive to multi-quarter earnings conversion.

Analyst Opinions

Across the institutional and media updates reviewed between January 1, 2026 and February 18, 2026, the prevailing stance is cautiously bullish, with favorable items outweighing neutral or cautious notes; in ratio terms, bullish commentary dominates. MT Newswires Live reported on February 10, 2026 that Avista raised its quarterly dividend to $0.4925 per share, an action that market participants often interpret as management’s confidence in forward cash flows and earnings trajectory. GlobeNewswire carried multiple company communications—including the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call schedule on January 21, 2026; selection of new energy and capacity resources with demand response on January 26, 2026; and an Idaho annual price adjustment filing on February 13, 2026—that collectively signal continuity in operations, prudent capacity planning, and progress on rate mechanisms that support revenue and margin visibility.

Institutional commentary summarized by financial media since early February highlighted Avista’s 2026 financing intentions and multi-year capital plan. Coverage noted plans to issue long-term debt and potentially common equity in 2026 to fund infrastructure investment while reiterating a long-term earnings growth framework. Against this backdrop, the majority view skews positive: the updated dividend, resource selections, and rate filings are consistent with a quarter that aims to deliver on the $515.90 million revenue forecast and $1.02 adjusted EPS expectation. The absence of negative analyst downgrades or adverse rating changes in the period further supports a constructive tilt.

The core of the bullish case for the current quarter is the alignment between forecast growth rates—7.34% for revenue and 18.47% for adjusted EPS year over year—and the operational actions that underpin them. A successful demonstration of demand response payoffs and capacity resource integration, coupled with clarity on cost recovery trajectories, would validate the 38.30% year-over-year EBIT growth estimate. While formal margin guidance is not present in the dataset, the prior quarter’s 71.46% gross margin and 7.20% net margin, alongside a 107.14% sequential increase in GAAP net profit, set a constructive baseline heading into the print.

In summary, the majority of institutional commentary across the period is favorable, emphasizing strengthened cash distribution policy, proactive capacity planning, and regulatory progress. This stance aligns with an expectation that Avista will deliver a higher top line and improved earnings for the quarter ending in February 2026, reinforcing a cautiously bullish setup into the results and near-term management briefing.