According to Maoyan Professional data, the total box office revenue for the 2026 Spring Festival film season reached 5.752 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.5% year-on-year. Total admissions stood at 120 million, down 35.8% year-on-year. Compared to the 2024 season, the 2026 Spring Festival box office and admissions also declined by 28.24% and 26.38%, respectively, indicating a generally weak performance. This is primarily attributed to two factors: the extended holiday period diverting potential moviegoers to travel and an imbalance in the content lineup.
Looking ahead to 2026, a robust pipeline of high-quality domestic and international films suggests the full-year box office remains promising, with attention focused on key holiday season releases. The main viewpoints of Zhongyou Securities are as follows:
The overall performance fell short of expectations, with travel diversion and content structure imbalance being the primary reasons for the decline. The 2025 Spring Festival season, boosted strongly by "Nezha 2," established a high comparative base. However, compared to 2024, the 2026 season saw significant drops in both box office and admissions, indicating continued weakness. This is likely due to: 1) The extended holiday period stimulating travel demand, which分流ed time away from cinema visits. Reference data indicates domestic trips during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday reached 596 million, an increase of 95 million from 2025. 2) The content lineup leaned towards male-oriented themes, failing to effectively attract family and female audiences. The Spring Festival period typically has a family-friendly nature, requiring inclusive themes to appeal across age and gender demographics. For instance, while "Nezha 2" initially targeted parent-child audiences, it successfully broadened its appeal. In contrast, the 2026 lineup was dominated by titles like "Pegasus 3," which, despite capturing over half the season's box office, primarily attracted young male viewers. Other releases also favored male-centric genres.
Ample reserves of high-quality content domestically and internationally keep full-year box office prospects alive. Internationally, several highly anticipated sequels and established IP projects are expected to release in 2026. These films possess strong global appeal, and coupled with growing domestic acceptance of sci-fi, animation, and fantasy genres, could boost demand during key periods. Domestically, new projects from renowned creators are scheduled for release in the summer of 2026, combining visual effects prowess with popular appeal. Additionally, reality-themed films with star power and口碑 potential are set for other key holidays, suggesting a potential gradual recovery for the domestic annual box office.
Investment recommendations suggest focusing on content companies. Attention is also advised on cinema chains involved in film distribution and operation, as well as ticketing service providers.
Risks include films underperforming quality expectations, intensifying market competition, policy changes, and unforeseen public incidents.