Goldman Sachs Unveils "Most Important Trade for 2026": AI Productivity Beneficiary Portfolio

Deep News
Yesterday

Three years after the launch of ChatGPT, enterprise AI applications are transitioning from concept to reality. Goldman Sachs believes that going long on an AI productivity beneficiary portfolio will be the most significant trading opportunity in 2026.

Goldman Sachs recently introduced a new portfolio, coded GSXUPROD, comprising non-tech companies across industries such as finance, retail, logistics, healthcare, and dining. These firms have explicitly integrated AI into workflows to reduce costs and improve profit margins.

This earnings season, numerous S&P 500 companies highlighted AI adoption for productivity and efficiency gains in earnings calls. Goldman Sachs' latest survey of investment bankers shows a 37% corporate AI adoption rate, while the U.S. Census Bureau reports a 13% adoption rate among large enterprises, albeit under stricter criteria.

Year-to-date, the GSXUPROD portfolio has underperformed the broader market, even when excluding the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks. However, Goldman Sachs' equity portfolio strategy team notes that the portfolio's potential for earnings-per-share growth through AI adoption and labor productivity improvements exceeds that of the Russell 1000 and S&P 500 indices.

Here’s the full list of AI beneficiaries:

**Banking & Insurance: Automation and Cost Control** Financial institutions are deploying AI at scale to enhance operational efficiency, particularly in coding, institutional services, fraud detection, credit, collections, marketing, and underwriting. AI platforms and virtual assistants automate routine tasks and improve customer engagement. Many firms view AI as a tool to augment—not replace—human labor, reducing costs while supporting employees. Some are piloting agentic AI for broader integration and headcount control.

- **JPMorgan Chase (JPM)**: Highlights its deep AI expertise predating the generative AI boom, using AI to justify slower headcount growth while maintaining cost discipline. - **BNY Mellon (BK)**: Launched "Eliza 2.0," with 117 AI solutions in production, including digital employees handling business leads, coding, payments, onboarding, and reconciliations. - **Rocket Companies (RKT)**: AI agents have boosted efficiency—pipeline managers improve lead conversion, agreement review cuts processing time by 80%, and underwriting agents reduce task completion from 4 hours to 15 minutes. Loan volume per team member rose 63% in two years. - **Citigroup (C)**: Embedded AI in operations, with 180,000 employees using proprietary tools 7 million times, saving hours daily via automation and analytics. - **Bank of America (BAC)**: Treats AI as "augmented intelligence"; its Erica platform handles 2 million daily interactions, expanding answer capacity from 210 to 700 queries. - **Morgan Stanley (MS)**: Implements AI across use cases like code modernization (DevGen.AI), data analysis (Parable), and lead allocation (LeadIQ) to enhance advisor-client matching. - **UWM Holdings (UWM)**: AI loan officer assistant "Mia" made 400,000 calls, reconnecting past clients for refinancing, closing 14,000 loans at a 40% response rate (vs. 10-15% expected). - **AIG (AIG)**: Deploys generative AI "AIG Assist" in underwriting and claims, automating unstructured document analysis to accelerate decisions.

**Retail & Warehousing: End-to-End Optimization** Retailers and warehouse operators leverage AI for personalized shopping, smart search, supply chain logistics, inventory management, and back-office automation. Proprietary systems deliver double-digit productivity gains.

- **Amazon (AMZN)**: Invests heavily in AWS AI services (SageMaker, Bedrock), custom chips (Trainium), AI agents (AgentCore), and shopping assistant Rufus. - **Walmart (WMT)**: Builds four "super agents" for shopping (Sparky), staffing, vendor management, and product development. - **Public Storage (PSA)**: Uses AI for customer service and staffing optimization, cutting labor hours by 30% while improving retention. - **Best Buy (BBY)**: Deploys AI in Copilot+ laptops, Meta AR glasses, marketplace search, and ad campaigns.

**Transport & Logistics: Efficiency Through Automation** AI automates loading, quoting, dispatching, and routing while enabling real-time optimization and predictive analytics.

- **UPS (UPS)**: Digitizes 90% of cross-border transactions with AI and integrates agentic AI for customs brokerage. - **XPO (XPO)**: AI pricing robots and route optimization cut empty miles by 12% and diversions by 80%, lifting Q3 productivity by 2.5 percentage points. - **FedEx (FDX)**: Uses AI-powered digital twins for disruption prediction and route optimization, backed by 2 petabytes of daily package data.

**Healthcare: Clinical and Administrative AI** AI aids patient stratification, diagnostics, and HIPAA-compliant documentation while streamlining revenue cycles.

- **HCA Healthcare (HCA)**: Pilots AI documentation tools to combat claim denials. - **Elevance Health (ELV)**: Over 10 million members will access AI virtual assistants by year-end, embedded in clinical and administrative workflows.

**Restaurants: Labor and Cost Savings** AI automates drive-thru orders, kitchen operations, and managerial decision-making.

- **Yum Brands (YUM)**: AI "Byte Coach" advises 28,000+ restaurant managers; voice AI at Taco Bell drive-thrus grew 14% quarterly. - **Sweetgreen (SG)**: "Infinite Kitchen" automation saves ~700bps in labor costs and nearly 100bps in COGS. - **Starbucks (SBUX)**: "Siren System" integrates equipment to barista workflows, boosting peak throughput and contributing ~1% to comp sales.

Goldman Sachs’ GSXUPROD portfolio underscores AI’s transformative potential beyond tech, positioning non-traditional adopters for outsized gains as productivity enhancements scale.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10