Tesla CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly promised the launch of a Robotaxi service in California, but recent regulatory records indicate the company has made no substantive progress toward obtaining necessary approvals.
According to a Reuters report, undisclosed records from the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV), confirmed by a spokesperson, show Tesla has taken no action in 2025 to secure the required permits. Data reveals the company has logged zero autonomous test miles on California roads for the sixth consecutive year.
This lack of progress directly challenges the core narrative supporting Tesla's $1.5 trillion market valuation. Investors have long bet on Tesla's ability to operate a large fleet of autonomous vehicles and monetize software subscriptions at scale, with California—the largest U.S. auto market—being a crucial component of this strategy.
While Musk has frequently blamed lengthy approval processes for service delays, Bryant Walker Smith, a law professor and autonomous vehicle expert at the University of South Carolina, noted that Tesla attempts to signal that the "company is ready and regulation is lagging," but the reality may be the opposite.
Under California's current regulatory framework, logging test mileage is a fundamental prerequisite for autonomous vehicle companies to obtain commercial operating permits. Reuters reported that to deploy a fully driverless ride-hailing service similar to Alphabet's Waymo, a company must pass a series of approvals from the DMV and the California Public Utilities Commission, which oversees commercial ride-hailing.
Tesla currently holds only a basic permit from the DMV, which requires a safety driver behind the wheel during tests. A DMV spokesperson stated Tesla has not applied for any additional permits. According to draft DMV rules expected to be finalized later this year, companies must complete at least 50,000 miles of autonomous testing on public roads under safety driver supervision before applying for a permit to test without a driver.
However, Tesla has reported no test miles to state regulators since 2019, with a cumulative total of just 562 miles since 2016. In contrast, Waymo accumulated over 13 million test miles between 2014 and 2023, secured seven different regulatory approvals, and ultimately received permission to charge passengers. Waymo is currently one of three companies with a commercial autonomous vehicle permit in California and the only one authorized to operate a fleet on the scale Musk envisions.
Tesla has adopted a strategy of avoiding high regulatory barriers in its current operations. The company operates only a small Robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas, where regulatory requirements are significantly less stringent.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, Tesla launched what it called a "Robotaxi" service last July. However, according to California regulators and disclosures to customers, this is not a true driverless taxi service but a ride-hailing service provided by human drivers using Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) assistance software, which does not enable full autonomy.
Addressing the slow compliance progress, Musk explained to analysts during an earnings call last October that the company is "extremely paranoid about safety" and takes a "cautious approach" to entering new markets. He also implied that California regulation is a major obstacle, describing the state's approval process as extremely lengthy.
In written comments last year, Tesla criticized the DMV's proposed revisions to autonomous vehicle rules, questioning the necessity of in-state testing requirements and minimum mileage thresholds, and complaining that reporting requirements for collisions and system failures are "overly burdensome." Tesla did not respond to requests for comment on the regulatory records and progress issues.