Abstract

Rocket Lab USA, Inc. will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 26, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue acceleration, margin trajectory, and adjusted EPS as the company navigates launch cadence and Space Systems demand.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, consensus and company projections indicate revenue of $178.47 million, with year-over-year growth of 36.67%, an EBIT forecast of -$51.50 million with an anticipated year-over-year change of -3.51%, and adjusted EPS projected at -$0.09 with year-over-year improvement of 9.41%. Forecasts point to continued contribution from Space Systems and improving launch activity; the near-term focus remains on gross margin sustainability, net profitability, and adjusted EPS stabilization, although specific gross margin and net profit forecasts are not disclosed. The main business highlights emphasize Space Systems as the revenue anchor, while the Launch Services segment continues to scale with cadence-driven growth and contracted backlog. The most promising segment is Space Systems, with last quarter revenue of $114.16 million and a rising contribution; growth outlook remains supported by satellite components, solar panels, and spacecraft manufacturing demand.

Last Quarter Review

Rocket Lab USA, Inc.’s most recent quarter delivered revenue of $155.08 million, a gross profit margin of 36.96%, GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of $18.26 million, a net profit margin of -11.77%, and adjusted EPS of -0.03, with year-over-year growth of 70.00%. A key highlight was the outperformance versus revenue expectations, with actual revenue exceeding the prior quarter’s estimate by $3.33 million, while adjusted EPS surprised positively at -0.03 versus an estimated -0.10, reflecting operational leverage despite continued investment in growth. The main business mix was led by Space Systems revenue of $114.16 million and Launch Services revenue of $40.92 million, evidencing a diversified engine that aligns with customer demand across spacecraft components and launch services.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Space Systems

Space Systems remains central to revenue generation this quarter, serving a broad array of customers across satellite components and spacecraft manufacturing. The prior quarter’s gross margin of 36.96% and the continued improvement in adjusted EPS suggest that operational efficiencies in Space Systems and higher-value product mix are aiding the margin profile. With demand for satellite subsystems, solar panels, reaction wheels, and integrated spacecraft rising, the segment’s pipeline appears supportive of sequential revenue resilience. Contracted programs, recurring orders for components, and integration services underpin near-term visibility. Execution risks relate to program timelines, manufacturing throughput, and supplier logistics; however, the segment’s established customer relationships and backlog provide a basis for stable deliveries and learning-curve benefits. If Space Systems continues to secure multi-mission frameworks, margins could gradually strengthen even as R&D expenses persist.

Most Promising Business: Space Systems Growth Platform

Within the company’s portfolio, Space Systems stands out as the largest and most scalable growth platform, contributing $114.16 million last quarter and supporting the revenue outlook for the current quarter. The year-over-year trend in adjusted EPS improving to -0.03 and the forecast for -0.09 this quarter show management’s balance between growth investment and cost discipline. Space Systems’ diversified product set, from satellite buses to components, allows the company to capture a wide spectrum of mission needs. This breadth mitigates single-program risk while enabling cross-selling opportunities, especially as customers upgrade constellations and require replenishment. Sustained order intake and milestones on complex spacecraft programs can be pivotal drivers for quarterly performance, with additional upside from high-margin components. Risks include potential schedule shifts and component availability, but the segment continues to benefit from commercial and government demand that favors proven suppliers.

Stock Price Drivers: Launch Cadence, Margins, and EPS Trajectory

Investors are likely to focus on launch cadence and its revenue mix effect, as Launch Services accounted for $40.92 million last quarter and contributes episodically with each mission. The gross margin at 36.96% and the net profit margin of -11.77% highlight a path toward margin improvement, where higher-efficiency production and better pricing could narrow losses. The EBIT forecast of -$51.50 million and adjusted EPS of -0.09 suggest continued near-term losses, but the year-over-year adjusted EPS improvement of 9.41% reflects progress. Stock reaction typically hinges on whether reported results beat revenue and EPS expectations, alongside updates on backlog, mission schedules, and Space Systems deliveries. Commentary on cost discipline, production scaling, and customer mix will influence expectations on how quickly margins can move toward breakeven. Upside could stem from additional launch wins, accelerated spacecraft deliveries, or component revenue outperformance; downside risk centers on schedule changes or cost absorption from program ramps.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing view among institutions is bullish, emphasizing the growth trajectory in Space Systems and improving revenue scale despite ongoing losses. Analysts highlight the sequential resilience in revenue and the positive surprise in adjusted EPS last quarter, pointing to operational efficiency gains and a stronger backlog across spacecraft components and services. Key commentary underscores that Space Systems offers diversified exposure and recurring demand, providing a degree of insulation from launch timing variability. Several notes reiterate a constructive stance based on the forecasted revenue of $178.47 million with 36.67% year-over-year growth, and an expectation that adjusted EPS improvement and disciplined cost management could continue. The bull case centers on robust customer activity, cross-selling within Space Systems, and potential upside from increased launch cadence, reinforcing confidence that the company’s scale-up path remains intact this quarter.